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LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

arxiv.org

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Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#61
post #40
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is progress faster or slower than you expected?

An astounding amount of both.

That makes sense. Progress does seem very lumpy. Commercialization and secrets means that what we see publicly may not be state of the art. And I certainly never thought that Zuckerberg would be the one providing open model weights. It's a strange new world.

Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#62
post #51

My guess for the reason behind this is that LLMs have more facts memorized, and thus can make more reasonable and well-researched sounding answers. If you ask an LLM vs a Human "Is a stack in computer science a) a data structure that is first in first out or b) a data structure that is first in last out" the LLM can say stuff resembling "Based on Dijkstra's algorithm proof given in 1943 and the nature of Turing compl…

Reminds me of the horrific state of student debate competitions today where the winning strategy is to incomprehensibly rattle off as many arguments as quickly as possible with strange breathy sounds in between

This is a consequence of the fact that any argument not responded to "flows across" the score sheet and is automatically a win for the team making the argument, no matter how silly. So a "natural" tendency would be to ignore ridiculous arguments like "not paying for school lunches will cause children to hyperventilate, and by the butterfly effect will lead to infinite hurricanes in developing nations causing a collapse of the global economy and intergalatic war and genocide". But if the opposite team fails to acknowledge the argument then that is the same as conceding it will happen.

Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a YouTube video demonstrating this? My only experience with debate is from the TV show Community.

This one is very short but conveys the idea well. Not all debate is like this but it is definitely a real phenomenon https://youtu.be/LMO27PAHjrY

Hamdiddle-eedah-hamdiddle-ah (do do do do dodododo expi-ali-do-cious)

What is the point of that? They're incomprehensible. (For those who haven't watched it: the video just shows people talking very fast, it doesn't explain why, kind of implies it's somehow good or impressive.)

Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#64

Based on the data in table 3, I would attribute most of the difference to length of advice. LLMs average word count (29.4) is more than double human word count (13.25). Most other measures do not have a significant ratio. "Difficult word count" would be the only other with a ratio higher than 2, but that is inherited from total word count. I think it would be difficult to truly convince me to answer differently in a…

> I would be very interested to see the test rerun while limiting LLM response length or encouraging long responses from humans. I don’t know if that would have the effect you want. And if you’re more likely have hallucinations at lower word counts, that matters for those who are scrupulous, but many people trying to convince you of something believe the ends justify the means, and that honesty or correspondence to r…

I'm not sure what effect you think I want. The suggestion was just to increase the "interestingness" of the study. It seems to be like the main difference between LLM and human shown was length of response. Controlling for that variable and rerunning the experiment would help show other differences.

I do think its distinctly possible that LLMs will be much less convincing due to increased hallucinations at a low word count. I also think that may have less of an effect for dishonest suggestions. Simply stating a lie confidently is relatively effective.

I would prefer advising humans to increase length rather than restricting LLMs because of the cited effects.

Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would be very interested to see the test rerun while limiting LLM response length or encouraging long responses from humans. I don’t know if that would have the effect you want. And if you’re more likely have hallucinations at lower word counts, that matters for those who are scrupulous, but many people trying to convince you of something believe the ends justify the means, and that honesty or correspondence to r…

I'm not sure what effect you think I want. The suggestion was just to increase the "interestingness" of the study. It seems to be like the main difference between LLM and human shown was length of response. Controlling for that variable and rerunning the experiment would help show other differences. I do think its distinctly possible that LLMs will be much less convincing due to increased hallucinations at a low word…

> I would prefer advising humans to increase length rather than restricting LLMs because of the cited effects.

I would advise the opposite to humans, as your advice is playing to the strengths of AI/LLMs and away from the strengths of humans versus AI/LLMs.

Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#67
post #17

We're fast approaching the point that any value someone can provide through a digital interface could be better done by a model. What do we use digital interfaces for? Practically everything. Oh well not being a plumber, electrician, or farmer... but our society's current productivity, technology, automation reduced our need for 80% of the population needing to be farmers to now 1.3% in the US. Can you imagine what t…

Yes when the knowledge jobs are all done best by AI the rest will follow shortly. we will need to adapt to being "useless" as far as work goes and find other sources of worth. There's still a lot of people who want to compare it to Bitcoin hype around here, IMO the next few years everything is going to change way faster than than it ever has. For the record I always thought Kurzweil and that crowd was clowns, now I t…

Meanwhile I haven't seen any real progress that I'd care about in a while.

Is GPT-4xyz better than the last one? I'm sure some benchmark numbers say that. But the number of applications where occasional hallucinations don't matter is very small, and where it matters nothing really changed. Companies are trying to use it for customer support but that predictably turned out to be a legal risk. Klarna went all-in on AI and regrets it now.

Some media are talking about Microsoft writing 30% of their new code with AI, but what Nadella actually said is less impressive: "maybe 20-30% of the code that is inside of our repos today in some of our projects are probably all written by software". Which, coincidentally, is the ratio of code that can be autocompleted by an IDE without LLM, according to Jetbrains.

I have yet to see any evidence that anything will change way faster than it ever has, aside from the readiness of many younger people to use it in everyday life for things it really shouldn't be used.

Re: LLMs are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a YouTube video demonstrating this? My only experience with debate is from the TV show Community.

This one is very short but conveys the idea well. Not all debate is like this but it is definitely a real phenomenon https://youtu.be/LMO27PAHjrY

not even Idiocracy predicted that one.
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