Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It will have to be taken from them Be careful when advocating force towards others. Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, after all.
They may not have been alluding to violence; perhaps something like democracy itself would be enough to take that lifestyle away from the middle class. If billionaires consolidate enough power & resources and push the tax burden onto the middle class which makes yearly vacations unaffordable
Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
61–70 of 205 posts
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It will have to be taken from them Be careful when advocating force towards others. Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, after all.
Ah yes. George Washington, Simon Bolivar, Vladmir Lenin, etc... famously incompetent.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#63Just going off the tweet about electric scooters being a scam: Nothing in that tweet is convincing. Let's just take at face value the assertion that a KWh of energy in an electric scooter costs $5 (as an EV owner: I'm skeptical). I'm going to use Lime (an SF based scooter rental company, chosen at random) as an example. I tried finding exact battery specs, and couldn't, but based on the range and some general scooter…
For a long time I didn't understand what 'talking past each other' meant but this article is a good example of that. Mostly it's bad form to make sweeping generalizations. But let's be specific;
From the article, here is the "TL;DR" --
Lithium propulsion for aircraft and boats is fundamentally unprofitable across the entire U.S. grid. The numbers don't lie: 60× worse energy density than jet fuel, 3.3× higher operating costs, 22% reduced asset utilization, and payback periods that consume 2/3 of the asset's lifespan. Anyone claiming otherwise is ignoring basic physics or hiding most of the energy and economic costs.
So first let's talk definitions. "profit" is, by definition, "gross revenue" - "costs". "costs" come in two flavors, "direct", "marginal", and "operational". Direct costs are what you pay, every time for the thing you need. Marginal cost is what you pay for just "a bit more" of the thing you need. And operational costs are the costs you pay so that you can operate your business.
So there is a direct cost of a lithium battery which is included in the manufacturing of a widget, there is the marginal cost of charging that battery up to full capacity, and there is the operational cost of maintaining the battery and presumably repairing or replacing it, when it doesn't do what you ask of it any more.
There is a fourth cost, which is "externalities", that covers the cost of remediating the environmental damage which is done by your energy source and while important, and the focus of climate change awareness, its rarely considered in the discussion of 'profitable' vs. 'unprofitable.'
If we keep this discussion on "lithium" which is the "gas" of these transportation modalities. You can say that building a battery pack is much more expensive than building a gas tank. So cost wise a gas is cheaper. The marginal cost of energy in Watts between gasoline and electricity leans heavily in electric's favor for a number of reasons. The operational costs of fueling and maintaining the "source power" for electric cars nominally similar.
But all of that, has to be put into the context of the system cost which includes vehicle fabrication, power 'converters' (aka motors) that turn fuel into motion, and mechanical maintenance.
Then you jump into a bigger frame of reference and consider all transportation modalities and how they combine as a system to get someone from point A to point B, and what are the costs of building, expanding, and operating that?
The author doesn't see a path between 'here' and what they know to 'there' where Lithium batteries have "improved" non-vehicle transportation modalities over what fossil fuels can do. That's fair, I don't see one either precisely, but there are interesting paths to explore. Foreclosing one's thinking to possibilities on those paths is not usually the right thing to do. A better strategy is to think about it in terms of what would have to be true in order for these paths to be viable updates to the way we travel/ship/transport.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#64You don’t need to rant when it’s enough to show that a few dozen airliners consume a day’s worth of a nuclear reactor power production (for some size of an airplane and a nuclear reactor; we should be accurate within an order of magnitude). Imagine every single airport needing its own huge ass power plant and you get your point across in an HN comment. Not sure what’s the point in attacking physicists, either. They s…
but mixing your comment with a few others, maybe a nuke plant on the ground that cracks the co2 in the atmosphere to make carbon neutral hydrocarbon fuel.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ah yes. George Washington, Simon Bolivar, Vladmir Lenin, etc... famously incompetent.
Incompetence can take many forms. Some of them include starting a fight they can't finish.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#66I remember seeing loads and loads of analyses like this back in the 2000s on a site called The Oil Drum about why electric cars would never work at scale. (Spoiler: My family has two EVs.) They always assume that the technology will never get better, that industrial economies of scale don't exist and therefore that prices don't decrease with scale, that currently developed reserves of resources like lithium equal tot…
The Oil Drum was converted to a static archive site in 2013, in part because they were finding it hard to attract quality content. Gee, maybe that was because it was clear Peak Oil (in the we're running out sense) wasn't happening? This comment was made to the shuttering announcement: "8 years means The Oil Drum came online in 2005, basically matching the start the current plateau in crude oil production." Global oil…
What I was getting at though was -- I think the left allows its doomer narratives to be intellectually paralyzing. If everything is going to crash and collapse and burn, there's no need to actually try to solve problems or offer a compelling narrative about the future.
The right doesn't do this. They feed their own doomer narratives into a "rage against the dying of the light" narrative. This results in all kinds of ugly racism and persecution and authoritarianism, sure, but it doesn't lead to paralysis. So, as I said, they win by default. In the battle for hearts and minds, they win if they're the only ones that show up.
Edit:
Another way of saying it would be to say that for the left its doomer narratives are demotivating, while the right treats its doomer narratives as motivating.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actual comprehensive high speed rail networks would reduce the overall carbon footprint of travel by a huge factor, while still permitting a high overall degree of affordable mobility.
A one-way ticket for an Amsterdam - Paris train, taken well in advance (2 months from now), costs $159.30. It's a 3.5 hours long trip. https://eurorails.com/en/trains/amsterdam-centraal/paris?dat... A similar one-way ticket for the same date for a flight costs $112 (with no bags), and it takes 1 hour 25 minutes. https://www.kiwi.com/en/search/results/amsterdam-netherlands... (Yes, some people can say that Kiwi is a s…
And it'll properly price in externalities, which is not currently the case.
Also, just to quibble, I think the _total_ travel time is actually not that different considering you're supposed to get to the airport at least an hour early, and how accessible airports are to population centers relative to train stations.
If you had to catch a cab either two or from the airport, but could avoid it with a train, the costs you cite are suddenly about the same.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#68This appears to ignore the new technology that electric brings in: Reduced maintenance, (for aircraft) reduced weight in other parts of an aircraft, new propulsion capabilities that increase efficiency of the energy used, new performance envelopes (like flying much higher because the physics are totally different), etc etc. Sure. Take an existing vehicle optimized for burning things and just swap that small part and…
> reduced weight in other parts of an aircraft The bigger problem is that the overall weight increases. Rearranging the COG doesn't really matter when most of your energy is spent literally fighting gravity. This is the first thing that popped up in google when I wanted to compare gravimetric density between gasoline and lithium ion batteries. Gasoline is still approximately 30x denser. That is at least one revolutio…
Definitely not a huge penalty.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
It just takes money. $100k-$300k/yr is plenty to have your pick of pretty good people, especially if there are any perks like the food being halfway decent (should be basically a given if you have to pay the chef a lot anyway).
With a fraction of the money, you pay for energy to move faster ...
Fuel costs are ~$2.5 USD/gallon for bunker fuel. That means a cool $200k per day (conservatively).
It is absolutely not the personnel costs that'd be the big differences in expenses.
Re: Electric Propulsion's Dirty Secret: Why Lithium Can't Fly (Or Float) Profitably
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
> reduced weight in other parts of an aircraft The bigger problem is that the overall weight increases. Rearranging the COG doesn't really matter when most of your energy is spent literally fighting gravity. This is the first thing that popped up in google when I wanted to compare gravimetric density between gasoline and lithium ion batteries. Gasoline is still approximately 30x denser. That is at least one revolutio…
This is not correct for electric trucks. Replacing diesel motor and gearbox with battery pack and electric drive train is close to a zero sum game according to https://youtube.com/@electrictrucker?si=RjdWBQQXansebUyJ Definitely not a huge penalty.