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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#61

Post by rayiner »

imbusy111 wrote: post #48
mppm wrote: post #34

Jonathan Blow's "Preventing the collapse of civilization" [1] makes a similar point. It is easy to assume that, if we can build EUV machines and space telescopes, then processing stainless steel and manufacturing PCBs is baby stuff, and is just waiting for the proper incentives to spring up again. Unfortunately that is not the case -- reality has a surprising amount of detail [2] and even medium-level technology take…

But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?

Define "more valuable."

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#62

Post by singron »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #10
nathan_compton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, sure, but perhaps some kind of plan is warranted?

Isn't the point of capitalism to not have a plan and let the market figure it out?

It's a principle of capitalism, but taken to the extreme, it's just a strawman. At this point, I think we are pretty sure that some interventions make capitalism better.

This post is specifically about Industrial Policy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_policy

But other effective interventions are anti-trust and demand-inducing regulation (e.g. people want to fly because they know it's safe).

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#63

Post by rkozik1989 »

vishnugupta wrote: post #19

No kidding! Beyond the obvious skilled labor there’s supply chain network, maintenance, townships and supporting system around them. And all of this needs human labor which is taken from somewhere else. How do you incentivize them? Just throwing money at the problem won’t solve it either. Because more often than not it’ll attract charlatans who will promise the sky, take the money and move away.

Americans have a very 1980s idea of manufacturing (and China in general) in that there aren't actually that many humans being used in Chinese factories let alone the American ones some of them want to build here. There's even a concept of, "Dark Factories" in China which are 100% automated factories that operate in the dark. The only jobs that will come from bringing manufacturing back to the states will be in automation, robotics, AI, and roles to support those things.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#64

Post by gjsman-1000 »

PaulKeeble wrote: post #9

Its the integration and overall combined effect of the entire industrial pipeline that makes China so incredible. It processes all the raw materials and the recycling/reuse of off cuts through every possible way to turn those raw materials into components and then into goods with very little need for import from other countries. Its the complete system for a huge variety of goods. To compete with that the entire pipe…

And if China invades Taiwan, which they have said for decades they will do (we just don’t like to believe them), what then?

Do we sacrifice a democracy for the dollar? If not, is our economy annihilated? We have no credible alternative to reshoring for this reason alone.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#65

Post by aNoob7000 »

vFunct wrote: post #7

Our economy was designed to NOT have citizens work at factories. We pay thousands of dollars a year in our public schools to teach each of our citizens calculus, literature, world history, and physics, so that they DON'T have to work at a factory, or perform manual labor like picking strawberries or driving trucks or cleaning toilets. Why would anyone want to go back to an economy that can be run by a third worlders?…

Americans fantasize about factory work because, at that time in America, you could afford a home without a two-income family. Life was "easier" for many people.

Personally, I think we need to focus on making things like homes more affordable. This would go a long way toward alleviating people's feeling of being trapped.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#66

Post by welshwelsh »

vFunct wrote: post #7

Our economy was designed to NOT have citizens work at factories. We pay thousands of dollars a year in our public schools to teach each of our citizens calculus, literature, world history, and physics, so that they DON'T have to work at a factory, or perform manual labor like picking strawberries or driving trucks or cleaning toilets. Why would anyone want to go back to an economy that can be run by a third worlders?…

Manufacturing doesn't have to involve large amounts of low-skill manual labor. It can be highly automated and serve as a source of jobs for engineers.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#67

Post by drittich »

nathan_compton wrote: post #5
ysofunny wrote: post #2

it's like they believe building is as quick as destroying. almost like they think delete can be ctrl+z'ed back into undeleted very quickly a generation of kids that never lost all their work because they didn't hit ctrl+s at the correct moment is now trying to run things

Weird take, since most of the people still in charge are old boomers who've barely even learned to use a computer.

I think the main point stands, though, which is that you can't undo to the previous state. E.g., rolling back all tariffs/deportations/firings/budget cuts would not undo the damage done.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#68

Post by knowaveragejoe »

csense wrote: post #46

There are plenty of people saying these tariffs will not work. But a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support a house with a yard, a car, a non-working spouse and children. How we get that level of prosperity back? That's the people really want. Tariffs are simply a means to that end. I wish people would stop writing articles about 100% criticizing tariffs and instead write arti…

> But a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support a house with a yard, a car, a non-working spouse and children.

> How do we get that level of prosperity back?

The issue is that this is a false premise. The house sucked. Only 1/3rd of American families had a single car at the time, and the cars sucked. We can go on and on about everything else. Not to mention the social environment at the time sucked.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to do something about the issues Americans face. But tariffs with a shifting set of sanewashed justifications are just Not It.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#69

Post by [deleted] »

csense wrote: post #46

There are plenty of people saying these tariffs will not work. But a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support a house with a yard, a car, a non-working spouse and children. How we get that level of prosperity back? That's the people really want. Tariffs are simply a means to that end. I wish people would stop writing articles about 100% criticizing tariffs and instead write arti…

[deleted]

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#70

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

It's difficult but necessary to bring manufacturing back due to defense logistical reasons.

We build about 100 SM-6 missiles a year. How long does this last against a peer? 12 hours?

I don't know if tariffs are the best way to do this but some manufacturing must come back one way or another.

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