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Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

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61–70 of 100 posts

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#61
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if they're aiming for it to be a book. Hubotter describes it on his web page as "notes on Probabilistic AI".

The "book" is accompanying studying material for the course Probabilistic AI at ETH Zurich. Essentially each chapter is the material covered in one lecture (3hrs). Source: I did the course

I think this is where a lot of textbooks come from.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#63
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was sort of my experience with LSD. It just broke me. I fell into a deep depression afterward, but the reason was only partly due to damaging my mind. The other part of it was that the LSD made me realize where my life was going, and how completely unfulfilled I'd end up being in 10-20 years. In that way, it helped me course-correct. I'm healthier, more honest with myself, and got back into college because of th…

Unless you did a thumbprint, you're perfectly fine, no damage. Just get your shit together, that seems to be your takeaway. Sounds like it worked. Now you have to keep working on yourself rather than blaming a harmless drug for your problems.

If a thumbprint can do damage, why can't a lower dose? What's the mechanism?

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#64
stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic?

Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probability + confidence) coefficients for each and every term..

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#65

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

Not out of the box I think; I wouldn’t trust any self-assesment like that. With enough compute, you could probably come up with a metric by doing a beam search and using an LLM to evaluate how many of the resultant answers were effectively the same as a proxy for “confidence”.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#66

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

I'm not 100% sure what you mean by this, but there is token probability available in some providers:

https://cookbook.openai.com/examples/using_logprobs

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#67

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

Maybe stupid answer, but I’ve read a few older papers that used ensembles to identify when a prediction is out of distribution. Not sure what SotA approach is though.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#68

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

Suitably modified, they can. Bayesian neural networks provide uncertainty quantification. The challenge is calibrating the predictions, and deciding whether devoting model capacity to uncertainty quantification would not be better spent on a bigger, uncertain model.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibration_(statistics)

Example: Efficient and Effective Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs (https://openreview.net/forum?id=QKRLH57ATT)

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you did a thumbprint, you're perfectly fine, no damage. Just get your shit together, that seems to be your takeaway. Sounds like it worked. Now you have to keep working on yourself rather than blaming a harmless drug for your problems.

If a thumbprint can do damage, why can't a lower dose? What's the mechanism?

It's similar to one aspirin vs 10000. Also, people do thumbprints and live normal lives after, I just threw that out as an extreme. LSD is very safe if you're doing normal doses. Most people don't take 10000 doses so I can't really speak to that.

Re: Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

#70

stupid question: can a LLM (i.e neural network) tell me the probability of the answer it just spew? i.e. turn into fuzzy logic? Aaand, can it tell me how much it does believe itself? i.e. what's the probability that above probability is correct? i.e. confidence i.e. intuitionisticaly fuzzy logic? Long time ago at uni we studied these things for a while.. and even made a Prolog interpreter having both F+IF (probabilit…

The way I understand it, an LLM response is a chain of tokens where each is the most probable token. Maybe there exists more complicated candidate and selection approaches than that, but biggest number works for me. For the sake of simplicity, let's just say tokens are words. You'd have access to the probability of each word in the ordering of the sentence, but I'm not sure how that would then be used to evaluate to the probability of the sentence itself or its truthiness.
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