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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#61

Post by Xenoamorphous »

jitl wrote: post #60
brutalhonesty wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really is basic math though. A 3 point shot with 36% chance to go in (league average) = 1.08 points per attempt. A mid-range 2 point shot with 45% chance to go in = .9 points per attempt. The math is very basic.

Claim the math is very basic is reminding me of the different conclusions people have drawn from this image: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#/media/Fil...

So in the 2008-2009 season, the one before Curry’s debut, the average number of 3 pointer attempts per game from a team was 18. Last season it was 35, so pretty much 2x.

If it was so intricate why nobody tried it before? And why after someone tried it it seemingly stuck? Is it really that far fetched that it was actually pretty simple and nobody noticed for many years?

Even if you consider the adjustement to the defense, you’d be making two pointers easier as you can’t defend tightly both the perimeter and the paint at the same time.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#62

Post by relaxing »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #59
tomjakubowski wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you elect to take more three pointers you necessarily have to resort to shooting more difficult ones, which lowers the expected return on each one. In the real world it's not so simple. Similar reason why star players often have lower FG% than one might think: they are the ones tasked with trying _something_ when the shot clock winds down and there's no clear play. Not all shots are chosen equally.

> When you elect to take more three pointers you necessarily have to resort to shooting more difficult ones, which lowers the expected return on each one But then 2 pointers become easier. You can’t defend tightly both the perimeter and the paint at the same time. Sounds like a win-win. Again, nobody seemingly noticed.

Do you watch NBA games?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#63

Post by Xenoamorphous »

grandempire wrote: post #56
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Precisely. Shooting lots of threes with good/decent efficiency also made two pointers more likely as more players would be defending the perimeter. Again, seemingly nobody thought of this for decades.

It’s not insightful to say your team is more effective when you have the real threat of scoring 3s. That’s not a new idea. Comparing probability of shot A vs shot B is just not a sufficient model. Its not simple math to model basketball.

Then why the first time someone tried it then it worked and it stuck for 15 years or so? Last season there were 35 3p attemtps per game on average vs 18 in the year before Curry’s debut, almost 2x.

It it really impossible to think that it was a huge oversight?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#64

Post by relaxing »

beoberha wrote: post #15

I don’t think this is a particularly well written article, but I sort of agree with the sentiment. Basketball just isn’t THAT complex and the talent pool is homogenous enough that most teams can find these archetypes and build rosters that get you to the playoffs. That said, trends are cyclical. Look at the role of the running back in the NFL. There will always be outlier players like Shaq who will buck the trends an…

“The NBA talent pool is homogenous” is the new worst hn take I’ve seen.

If “most teams can build rosters that get to the playoffs” is true it’s only because the NBA playoffs are so big. I’d assume it’s false based on any interpretation of “can build” you pick.

Realistically only a handful of teams compete for a championship in any given span of years.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#65

Post by ysavir »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

I'm guessing that it's more complicated than that. Possibly when the specifications for a basketball court were laid out, the 3-point line was intentionally drawn where it would be a risky shot. And the coaching/playing culture developed with that mindset.

But since then people have gotten at least a little bit taller. We developed more ways in which to train and grow our physical strength. Training got more intense, improving results. And more subtle changes along those lines, which are micro-changes that accrue over time, and often hard to notice.

It can take a while for someone, anyone, to realize that all the various changes have made what was intended to be a risky maneuver into a viable play. It seems obvious in retrospect, but until someone points it out, it's one of those avenues of thought requires you to shake off what you've known your whole life before you can accept it.

Could also be that none of that was relevant, but it's worth considering and keeping in mind.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#66

Post by grandempire »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #63
grandempire wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not insightful to say your team is more effective when you have the real threat of scoring 3s. That’s not a new idea. Comparing probability of shot A vs shot B is just not a sufficient model. Its not simple math to model basketball.

Then why the first time someone tried it then it worked and it stuck for 15 years or so? Last season there were 35 3p attemtps per game on average vs 18 in the year before Curry’s debut, almost 2x. It it really impossible to think that it was a huge oversight?

> why the first time someone tried it then it worked

Is this the first time a team has tried to shoot 3s?

> It it really impossible to think that it was a huge oversight?

I’m not saying biasing towards 3s, with serious threats inside, is a bad strategy. Im saying multiplying a shooting percentage doesn’t tell you that.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#67

Post by relaxing »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #63
grandempire wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not insightful to say your team is more effective when you have the real threat of scoring 3s. That’s not a new idea. Comparing probability of shot A vs shot B is just not a sufficient model. Its not simple math to model basketball.

Then why the first time someone tried it then it worked and it stuck for 15 years or so? Last season there were 35 3p attemtps per game on average vs 18 in the year before Curry’s debut, almost 2x. It it really impossible to think that it was a huge oversight?

Daryl Morey? Is that you?

You can’t just tell your players to start jacking more threes and coast your way to success. Many tried, many failed. The game is more complex than that.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#68

Post by relaxing »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #61
jitl wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claim the math is very basic is reminding me of the different conclusions people have drawn from this image: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#/media/Fil...

So in the 2008-2009 season, the one before Curry’s debut, the average number of 3 pointer attempts per game from a team was 18. Last season it was 35, so pretty much 2x. If it was so intricate why nobody tried it before? And why after someone tried it it seemingly stuck? Is it really that far fetched that it was actually pretty simple and nobody noticed for many years? Even if you consider the adjustement to the defe…

It was absolutely tried before. The 08 Magic shot threes at a similar % and volume to the 2015 Warriors, yet they got rolled in the playoffs every time.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#69

Post by dang »

meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

Ok, we removed the solved part from the title above.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#70

Post by 1123581321 »

anon84873628 wrote: post #54
1123581321 wrote: post #8

Basketball rules will change. It's becoming a more widespread view that the corner 3 should be eliminated, and perhaps the 3 line moved back in general. In the meantime, threat of 3s makes proactive defense more necessary and that's exciting to watch. Defense has evolved so much since the Jordan era. Some matches are not exciting right now, though.

As someone who doesn't follow the sport, what's the problem with corner 3's specifically?

Corner 3s are shorter because the 3-point curve flattens to give enough space to move between it and the bounds. The action in the corner is also less dynamic because it's hard to drive to the basket from there, so either you shoot a 3 or pass to center which resets the play if you can't find someone driving up center court. Here's a diagram of a regulation NBA court showing the issue. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7d/Basketba...
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