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Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

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Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#61

Post by halfcat »

nimbius wrote: post #30

Americans may not think of themselves as an “empire,” but much of the world does. The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power. the US is 249 years old.

Coincidentally, few democracies last much longer than 250 years. Monarchies and oligarchies tend to last longer.

Some argue that all organizations, including governments, eventually become oligarchies. See The Iron Law of Oligarchy (1911)

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#62

Post by StefanBatory »

nimbius wrote: post #30

Americans may not think of themselves as an “empire,” but much of the world does. The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power. the US is 249 years old.

If you're talking about that book, he handpicked the empires and the "dates of decline" to fit the narrative harder than undergrad writing their thesis night before deadline. ;)

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#63

Post by Gormo »

cardamomo wrote: post #38
wslh wrote: post #18

From a geopolitical perspective, the real concern isn’t just whether America is in decline, but whether we are witnessing a broader cycle of decline across Western civilization, or even globally. While competition between nations is important, it isn’t enough on its own. What we truly need is a world where the average person has more viable options, economically, politically, and technologically. If our current syste…

> The focus should be on creating new pathways for individual prosperity rather than just shifting power between competing states. I'd argue that the focus should be on creating prosperous communities, of mutual benefit to their individual members. But maybe that's just a "pathway" to individual prosperity.

Communities form among individuals seeking mutual benefit, not the other way around. The way to create prosperous communities is to maximize opportunities for individuals.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#64

Post by 12_Twelv »

lm28469 wrote: post #31
pcardoso wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the outside we can see longe marriages as cute, but that is only that. Better switch partners and seek hapinness than to live in a bad marriage. People change and so should relationships if the people in it don't find them suitable. My views, which, again, all this discussion is not relevant to article.

That's such a reductionist view of marriage, but it's completely in sync with the modern fleeting pleasure seeker mentality, coupled with the end game of commoditisation. Don't like your car? Change it. Don't like your wife ? Change it > People change and so should relationships if the people in it don't find them suitable. If that's your starting point why even marry ?

> If that's your starting point why even marry?

Tax benefits!

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#65

Post by StefanBatory »

ben_w wrote: post #16
resource_waste wrote: post #12

Broken Clock is right twice a day. A civilization declines? If I didn't read history, I'd be shocked. Isnt America still number 1 in GDP and the only regional hedgemon? "I predict that America will decline." Someone write an article, I will be correct at some point. And on the comments about superstition... religion is at an all-time low... So, I suppose that isnt perfectly correct.

> Isnt America still number 1 in GDP and the only regional hedgemon? No, GDP has a few ways to measure it, China beats the US on some of them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) I think China is also as much of a *regional* hedgemon as the US. Might argue the EU as well, the Brussels effect etc., but that's less clear. Even after Brexit, the GDP-PPP is very close to the USA, though it is als…

EU will still stand strong, but... as a regional power. I don't buy that we will decline totally; but we'll be like Indonesia or Nigeria. Strong regional powers, but no power projection.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#66

Post by StefanBatory »

chmorgan_ wrote: post #35

Carl Sagan may very well be correct, however he didn't make predictions about when such an event might occur, and his predictions were aimed at avoiding it occurring at all. I've seen this article appear several times in two distinct time periods, one was after Trump was elected the first time, and the second is now. Why is it popular now? Because people opposed to the present political party want to portray it as a…

> Middle East peace is advancing

Trump just announced what amounts to a genocide on Palestinians and occupation of Gaza as American territory.

This won't be a lasting peace.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#67

Post by ZeroGravitas »

chmorgan_ wrote: post #35

Carl Sagan may very well be correct, however he didn't make predictions about when such an event might occur, and his predictions were aimed at avoiding it occurring at all. I've seen this article appear several times in two distinct time periods, one was after Trump was elected the first time, and the second is now. Why is it popular now? Because people opposed to the present political party want to portray it as a…

Yes, my crystal auras suggest things are getting much better too so I don't see what people are worried about.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#68

Post by yardie »

lm28469 wrote: post #28
resource_waste wrote: post #12

Broken Clock is right twice a day. A civilization declines? If I didn't read history, I'd be shocked. Isnt America still number 1 in GDP and the only regional hedgemon? "I predict that America will decline." Someone write an article, I will be correct at some point. And on the comments about superstition... religion is at an all-time low... So, I suppose that isnt perfectly correct.

> Isnt America still number 1 in GDP GDP is a completely outdated metric that didn't say anything about civilization decline when it was valid and still doesn't say anything about civilization decline now that's it's next to useless

Well if I give 1 person a $1 bill and they pass it on to 9 other people. That's $10 worth of GDP.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#69

Post by rcarmo »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #53

the Chinese have been saying, 'The East is rising and the West is declining,' but China's current economy is on the decline, and Europe is no better. That leaves the U.S. still standing with economic growth. I guess we'll see.

Economy is not a game of absolute value--it is a game of _relative_ value and scale, and the US having economic growth _by itself_ is a mirage.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#70

Post by Gormo »

vlan0 wrote: post #9
jimkleiber wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the people are capable, given the right environment. I think what destroys it is not letting people in Congress write laws in relative secrecy. When the most powerful, including the political parties, can monitor how every Congress person votes in committee, they can micro-manage and micro-terrorize them into doing what they want. Let them deliberate without us watching over their shoulders (because it's most…

Bernie said it best. Get money out of politics. Full stop.

That's a vague slogan, not a meaningful strategy to accomplish anything of consequence. Money is just a tool. The resources and incentives that the money is being spent on already exist, and it's being used to further ambitions and goals that were always present. Getting "money out of politics" in a formalistic way will just lead to corrupt ambitions being facilitated via some other means.

Bernie's ideas are very dangerous, because he offers simplistic, pat solutions to risks that are fundamental to politics itself (at the expense of the much more nuanced safeguards we've developed over the ages) while proposing to make the political state far more central to people's immediate lives and livelihoods than it has ever been before.

Getting politics out of civil society is much more important than getting money out of politics.

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