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100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

hyponymo.us

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Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#61

Post by ssssvd »

whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

Property rights require legal framework supported by a legitimised monopoly on violence (which is, almost universally, a nation state). Disenfranchising people means delegitimising the state means wrecking the frame of ownership rights. That's probably the biggest conundrum ahead.

1. Capital owners need us as labour units. 2. Capital owners need nation state as the guarantor of their rights to accumulated capital. 3. Nation state needs us to legitimise itself.

AI/robotics kills (1). How the system will rebalance from here?

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#62

Post by Cumpiler69 »

harperlee wrote: post #12
master-lincoln wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or we just rob the resource owners and burn the automation.

Or tax their capital with income redistribution purposes, as we are already doing with more down to earth means of production.

>Or tax their capital

You'd have to abolish tax heavens and loopholes first.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#63

Post by yamrzou »

kelahcim wrote: post #58
DaveMcMartin wrote: post #22

I also have this pessimism. That's why I'm pivoting to hardware and embedded programming.

I, sharing the same feeling, have taken more drastic step. Instead of changing a specialisation within IT I have recently graduated in Psychology.

Interesting! Would you mind sharing more about your story?

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#65

Post by ssssvd »

bsenftner wrote: post #9

I think this line of reasoning is premature. The drive to mass automate is delusional. The complexity of that undertaking is barely grasped, and the tech to enable it may be visible on the horizon, but what we are working with today is not that technology. The AI today is "Atari graphics" and, yeah, sure, we can see the photo realistic fully automated civilization in this capability, but there is a gargantuan series…

How many 100s of billions had been invested into Atari Graphics? What administrations supported Atari Graphics as a nation-wide top-level project?

The key difference in AI is the combined investment of industry champions AND nations states on mind-boggling scale. That can cut the adoption from 40 years to 10. Today's graduates would hardly be able to pay their edu debts by then.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#66

Post by kelahcim »

yamrzou wrote: post #63
kelahcim wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I, sharing the same feeling, have taken more drastic step. Instead of changing a specialisation within IT I have recently graduated in Psychology.

Interesting! Would you mind sharing more about your story?

No, I don't mind. Psychology was always on my radar and few years back I have decided to pursue Masters in that field. This opens lots of new possibilities: practice (after additional studies), ability to conduct tests and evaluate people based on results (you need to be a Psychologist in order to use some of the tools), you can apply knowledge into other fields (e.g. HR / team management / event IT), eventually this kind of studies gives a completely new perspective. In my opinion, it was worth the time and effort.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#67

Post by Kye »

ssssvd wrote: post #61
whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

Property rights require legal framework supported by a legitimised monopoly on violence (which is, almost universally, a nation state). Disenfranchising people means delegitimising the state means wrecking the frame of ownership rights. That's probably the biggest conundrum ahead. 1. Capital owners need us as labour units. 2. Capital owners need nation state as the guarantor of their rights to accumulated capital. 3.…

Someone will own and rent out all the killbots to people looking to protect their stuff.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#68

Post by ffsm8 »

Kye wrote: post #67
ssssvd wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Property rights require legal framework supported by a legitimised monopoly on violence (which is, almost universally, a nation state). Disenfranchising people means delegitimising the state means wrecking the frame of ownership rights. That's probably the biggest conundrum ahead. 1. Capital owners need us as labour units. 2. Capital owners need nation state as the guarantor of their rights to accumulated capital. 3.…

Someone will own and rent out all the killbots to people looking to protect their stuff.

That would work until the first security incident, then everything is owned by the hacker. Albeit with some cleanup necessary to take out the expired humans.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#69

Post by thrance »

Cumpiler69 wrote: post #55
thrance wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to make predictions for such a hypothetical future, but let me try anyway. If we ever reach 100% unemployment, the working class (in which I inlcude all that depend on wages to live) will lose its only leverage in today's world: its labor. This is bound to make the situation very dire, very quickly for the vast majority of the population (>99%). I see only two solutions: * Either the owners push for some ki…

How will you hang the billionaires? It's not like they'll live next door to you instead of on their Billionaire Island with private security. The billionaires can always do what they've always done and pay half the poor people to shoot and oppress the other half if things don't go their way. As long as you keep the people with guns well paid, you're good. Dividing the lower classes and pitting them against each other…

Yes, that was my second scenario. Truthfully, I don't know how it will go down, I can only hope we get a good outcome.

In my mind, I still think 100% unemployment would mean a lot of people who live today in relative comfort, and are therefore complacent with oligarchy, would get very mad. Even if bought by billionaires, I doubt they'd retain the same quality of life as when the economy needed them.

And I don't see billionaires isolating themselves forever in gated communities, what's the point of being this powerful if you live in a golden cage? Look at Musk, he's the richest man in the world, and could just chill in the shadows but is constantly seeking attention and recognition.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#70

Post by bsenftner »

ssssvd wrote: post #65
bsenftner wrote: post #9

I think this line of reasoning is premature. The drive to mass automate is delusional. The complexity of that undertaking is barely grasped, and the tech to enable it may be visible on the horizon, but what we are working with today is not that technology. The AI today is "Atari graphics" and, yeah, sure, we can see the photo realistic fully automated civilization in this capability, but there is a gargantuan series…

How many 100s of billions had been invested into Atari Graphics? What administrations supported Atari Graphics as a nation-wide top-level project? The key difference in AI is the combined investment of industry champions AND nations states on mind-boggling scale. That can cut the adoption from 40 years to 10. Today's graduates would hardly be able to pay their edu debts by then.

You've missed my point: it is not a financing issue that will prevent mass automation, it is not a technology issue that will prevent mass automation, it is a social politics issue that will derail the entire goal. It's pretty hard to automate while a war is taking place, and if this tech is used to create mass unemployment that will trigger war.
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