Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading • Hacker News Board

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#61

Post by SubiculumCode » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:36 PM UTC

aredox wrote: post #9

They should have added a pure random bot as a control. Or a monkey.

You definitely need several active controls: 1. A broad mutual fund level buy and hodl. 2. The random buyer that you suggest.

Active controls (vs passive ones) are an important concept in experimental design.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#62

Post by sunnynagra » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:36 PM UTC

ratedgene wrote: post #25

It would be neat to see the process, where they get the data from, how they analyze it. It would be neat to also see another experiment of a MAS doing this and coordinating to gamble together. Perhaps even different system/arch/expert configs.

Data gets pulled from the Alpaca News API in the morning, then it gets sent to all three models. You can see a summary of the prompt used to determine the recommendations here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42560034

It currently makes up to recommendations, since not all stocks support fractional shares (I'm only doing $5 per trade). As part of the buy recommendation, a holding period is suggested as well.

Once the holding date is reached, that is when the sell order happens.

Would love to answer any other questions you may have.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#63

Post by geor9e » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:37 PM UTC

jingojango2 wrote: post #51

sunnynagra wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Each morning the trades are conducted with $5 each, which are mostly fractional shares that are bought.

Would be interesting to see the amount of fractional shares bought as well as its comparison in percentage to the total budget that day.

The fractional share is $5 divided by the share price. The bots each spend $5, so the percentage of the budget each spends is 1 divided by the arbitrary number of bots, so in this case 16.7%. Share price is an arbitrary value in that a company can split or reverse split at will. So both calculations would be arbitrary values.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#64

Post by sunnynagra » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:38 PM UTC

jingojango2 wrote: post #51

sunnynagra wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Each morning the trades are conducted with $5 each, which are mostly fractional shares that are bought.

Would be interesting to see the amount of fractional shares bought as well as its comparison in percentage to the total budget that day.

Great point, I will add that to the recent trades table at the bottom. It should use the total budget for the day.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#65

Post by bee_rider » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:38 PM UTC

sunnynagra wrote: post #41

noman-land wrote: post #20

Watch a random number generator generate random numbers.

Yeah, I don't expect anything super novel to come out of this or have any unrealistic expectations. This is mostly a fun and unscientific project I'm using to learn and build some skills and thought some HN folks would find some fun in it.

It is a cool project, IMO. Using real money, sharing the model reasoning, and being transparent about the implementation makes it more interesting even if, underlying amount of money is not massive. You might not have done some new science, but it’s all very “put up or shut up,” haha, which is rad.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#66

Post by geor9e » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:47 PM UTC

I just asked ChatGPT 4o "Guess what the average investor will do with todays stock market headlines. Just pick one specific trade." and it replied sell META. But your result was buy META. Could just be randomness, but I wonder if your prompt introduces a bias towards buying.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#67

Post by sunnynagra » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:48 PM UTC

geor9e wrote: post #66

I just asked ChatGPT 4o "Guess what the average investor will do with todays stock market headlines. Just pick one specific trade." and it replied sell META. But your result was buy META. Could just be randomness, but I wonder if your prompt introduces a bias towards buying.

Yes, the prompt that I am using does bias towards buying because I am specifically asking it to make a recommendation on a stock to buy and the holding period.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#68

Post by johng » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:49 PM UTC

My first email address it wouldn't accept.. wouldn't let me use it. Maybe the domain hit some censor (fscking.com)

Did a different email, it accepted it, I got the email, but got this error message when trying to confirm it: {"error":"Invalid verification token"} and a pretty-print checkbox that did nothing.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#69

Post by datadrivenangel » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:52 PM UTC

booleandilemma wrote: post #44

knallfrosch wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is anyone doing anything else?

I've heard Nancy Pelosi has a different strategy.

Advanced notice of momentum is a fun and lucrative variation for sure.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#70

Post by jfengel » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:54 PM UTC

NathanaelRea wrote: post #22

If they just get the financial headlines and indicators, aren't they all just momentum trading from sentiment analysis?

If they can read and act faster, accurately predicting sentiment, it would be a winning strategy. (At least until humans turned it all over to computers and stopped having to wait on their wetware to figure out their sentiments.)