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More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

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Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#61

Post by dismalaf »

jfengel wrote: post #58
dismalaf wrote: post #51

The most difficult part about the stock market is that stocks don't move for the reasons people think. People think fundamentals, news, financial performance, or chart patterns matter. But none of it does. Markets are driven purely by supply and demand. And in this case, supply and demand for the stock itself. Fundamentals are already priced in. Financial performance is already priced in. Expectations are priced in,…

In the long term fundamentals will matter. But the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Ordinarily I would say that an investment in a broad index for the long term (a decade or more) is always wise, and there's no point in trying to time it more specifically than that. However right now it's been irrationally exuberant for a long time. it's going to have to correct itself... Either tomorr…

Depends. If the fundamentals are already good, they're priced in, you probably have little upside, even long term. Maybe you'll just match the market. You have to think the fundamentals will improve over time more than the market expects to beat the market.

Long term, I think economics has more to do with market performance. Stocks rise as the money supply expands and capital has no where else to go.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#63

Post by freehorse »

herval wrote: post #47
matt3210 wrote: post #38

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

That’s peanuts! Congrats for realizing it early

I don't know OP but 3k can be a significant amount of money for some people esp when younger. I realise people often lose more, but that can also be because they have more money padding to lose.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#64

Post by BobbyTables2 »

matt3210 wrote: post #38

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

I too don’t understand why technical analysis isn’t classified as a genre of fiction…

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#67

Post by bluGill »

User23 wrote: post #56
matt3210 wrote: post #38

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

A 3k bankroll isn’t remotely close to enough working capital to employ any kind of useful risk management strategy and get any kind of return worth the bother.

Right but if you are wrong you are only out 3k. Many people with more money think they have a good strategy and lose a lot before they realize it wasn't bad luck and risk management but a bad idea.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#68

Post by pkoird »

hunch_throwawy wrote: post #18
nozzlegear wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this mean?

A guess, but I think they may be suggesting that when men don't see a future outside of striking it rich, they turn to gambling. downrightmike, please chime in if I'm reading it incorrectly.

Futures are a financial instrument that are much more volatile than Stocks (or even Options).

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#69

Post by anon7725 »

bongodongobob wrote: post #48
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that how RenTech got started? From what I understand, that fund still does huge gains, and can't get too big.

If the gains are huge, it's either temporary luck or they're cheating. You cannot have long term high alpha without either. If you meet a person who can constantly flip a coin heads side up, ask them to keep going and they'll either fail or you'll find the coin is rigged.

“It’s impossible for me to beat the market consistently” does not imply “nobody can beat the market consistently” or “nobody can beat the market consistently for a long enough time to become filthy rich”.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#70

Post by dgacmu »

matt3210 wrote: post #38

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

I have net managed to beat the market.

My estimate is that I've earned approximately $3/hour for the time I've spent doing so. And I was trading in such thinly traded options that it wasn't a matter of "scaling up" - I was literally only able to make money because I was picking up the pennies nobody else cared about.

(And/or trading on events that were were rare, obvious, and in an area I understood, which also doesn't scale)

Good fun and educational. Not quitting my day job. Because, of course, if you do the math on it, I've lost money playing the market relative to almost any other use of my time unless you consider it an investment in education and entertainment.

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