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The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

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Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#61

Post by rasz »

jcfrei wrote: post #18
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

Yes but the level of investment the Chinese have poured into battery production and EVs in general is also completely unparalleled. Industrial policy is nothing new for US and EU but just not at that level. To be able to compete with China the West would need to: - Match generous subsidies to companies, not just through banks but at the government level by building entire towns just for battery production. - Making l…

China didnt pour money into battery R&D. We did. Me, you, our parents, everyone with a phone since mid nineties. BYD stared out as a phone battery manufacturer, it took them decades to turn from cheap labor sweatshop into knowledge based company with own ideas and strategy.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#62

Post by klooney »

Animats wrote: post #35
llm_trw wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're ignoring the fact that we also don't want oceans of toxic sludge left after the mining. This is not the case in China.

The Mountain Pass mine solved that problem years ago. What they couldn't solve was making money during periods when China cut rare earth prices.

If only there was a giant money fountain with a vested interest in keeping mountain pass functional for the long haul.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#63

Post by xbmcuser »

ciconia wrote: post #44

A few months ago I was looking for an EV. Went to the local Citroen/Peugeot dealership (I live in France), asked what they had. They told me I could have the new e-C3, the basic model, with 300KM range, for ~35000€. I asked how long it would take to have the car once I ordered it. They told me six months. A few weeks later I went to the local MG dealership. They told me I could have an MG4, the high-end model (heated…

For how long though as China is building large shipping container ports as well as EV car factories in South America and Central America. Now a lot of US media and politicians are saying China is doing it so that they can access US markets. But I don't think so they are building these so that they get access to the huge market. As ev plus solar keep getting cheaper and a lot of countries dependence on oil for energy for economic growth will be removed they are building a market for their electronics as well as a suppliers for their food requirements.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#64

Post by Incipient »

Animats wrote: post #8
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

> Consistent, long term industrial policy is very effective. Yes. This is what kills the US in rare earths, cobalt, gallium, etc. US mines shut down when the price goes down. Sometimes they restart when the price goes up. Sometimes they don't. All this churn makes the business unprofitable in the US.[1] [1] https://mpmaterials.com/articles/mp-materials-reports-third-...

To condense a few points. China generally out competes on a few points: - strategic government investment - lower cost of labour - lower environmental regulation - proximity to downstream consumers

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#65

Post by mrtksn »

tirant wrote: post #39
mrtksn wrote: post #12

Europe doesn't make the best cars, USA doesn't make the best planes, Japan doesn't make the best electronics. What a time to live in. Anyway, that's all fine. Those are all huge and diverse economies, will re-group and stabilize.

I still think Europe makes the best cars. But being the best is never enough to also sell high volumes. Europe is stagnating due to an ever-increasing set of regulations, higher taxes (partially required to enforce those regulations and a shrinking labor force) and specially the effect that those have on the motivation of the most skilled workers: killing it. Me and my wife have tried starting a couple of businesses,…

Well, maybe the previous gen cars but Europe doesn't have an outlier in EVs.

Anyway, I don't think that it has anything with regulations or taxes. It's the attitude of Europeans. You can see how European GDPs have fallen short after 2008 but that's not because regulations kicked in in 2008 but because, IMHO, the way they handled the economical crisis.

Also, Europeans have a different understanding of what startup is supposed to do, they appear to think that its computer based high margin small business and Americans appear to believe that its supposed to be a business that should grow extremely fast and doesn't have to have any profit until it captures the market and establishes monopoly.

The American way creates huge wealth but creates a lot of suffering and stagnation once the startup reaches the profit making phase. This is a no-go for the Europeans, its something that the public demands be tackled and its something that EU tries to do with giant tech corporations and that's what makes the American businesses hate EU.

I don't know if European public will accept having american-like wealth concentration at the top. The vibe in Europe is that we should all have a dignified life quality and un USA they are O.K. with having people in extreme poverty at the same street with 40 Billion dollar company HQ. When they are too annoyed by all that poor, their solution ideas are something like "let's move somewhere else", "let's buy a land and create a new city where we don't have these people around" or "let's kick out these people and make them someone else's problem".

Yes, the American way creates huge wealth but I'm not convinced that its an improvement over over European way. Also, don't look just for EU vs USA, take at look at China, Japan and Singapore who also managed to built great wealth or innovation without forcing part of the population in poverty.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#66

Post by M95D »

singularity2001 wrote: post #49
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

What I find puzzling is that around 10 years ago Audi and VW committed fully to electric vehicles, investing $100 billion(?). So why do people now claim they missed the boat on EV development?

- Because 10y ago was already too late.

- Because they can invest and still fail.

- Because a press release and actual money spent on reasearch are two very different things.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#67

Post by floxy »

tzs wrote: post #48
ciconia wrote: post #44

A few months ago I was looking for an EV. Went to the local Citroen/Peugeot dealership (I live in France), asked what they had. They told me I could have the new e-C3, the basic model, with 300KM range, for ~35000€. I asked how long it would take to have the car once I ordered it. They told me six months. A few weeks later I went to the local MG dealership. They told me I could have an MG4, the high-end model (heated…

The US car makers are also doing their best to screw it up. Chevy had an EV, the Bolt, that gets pretty good reviews. They had some kinks the first few years but seem to have gotten them worked out. And with the tax EV tax incentives a Bolt was around $20k (around $28k without incentives). Range of around 250 miles (400 km). Then they announced in early 23 that it was being discontinued to make room for their "new ge…

>The only Chevy EV choices are the $42k Equinox,

The LT trim of the 2025 Equinox EV is under $35,000 MSRP. Which puts it at under $27,500 with the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit.

https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/equinox-ev

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#68

Post by p_l »

Filligree wrote: post #28
MPSFounder wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is of no concern to Europe or the US. Most of their tech is stolen or trickles down from innovation elsewhere. It is unlikely China will find success in the US given the sentiment (antiChinese sentiment is rampant in most of the US). Also, there are many legislations in place that would prevent it. I will mention though that the US and Europe need to get their act together. Too slow on EVs (it took an outsider…

> Most of their tech is stolen or trickles down from innovation elsewhere. This is how it always works, until it doesn't. Why is everyone so quick to forget that Japan was the exact same way in the 70s and 80s?

Or that's how USA had acted on many areas as recently as Manhattan Project?
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