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Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

economist.com

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Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#61

Post by meiraleal »

luzojeda wrote: post #59
marcosdumay wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What other way is there? Remember that inflation is something the government chooses to create. It's not some natural disaster. The other way is to remove the power to create it from the executive leader and give it to some institution that is more stable.

Of course but once you have 3 digits inflation, what other way to reduce is there besides cutting the supply of money suddenly in a shock? People won't like it, I didn't like it either but the two other presidents tried various methods such as price controls and that didn't help, on the contrary.

There are alternatives. Brazil fixed the hyperinflation problem in a different way, maybe Argentina should copy it: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-...

previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9617710

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#62

Post by meiraleal »

marcosdumay wrote: post #36
meiraleal wrote: post #22

What people don't talk about is that the good things the new administration achieved came with a big price: an expected drop of close to 4% in GDP. With the expectation of recovering it fast next year. So next year is the turning point for Milei, if the recession ends or intensifies. A shrinking economy with smaller inflation but in recession is worse than a growing economy with higher inflation. Also the GDP drop sh…

When in borderline hyperinflation, the GDP number is meaningless. Also, a shrinking economy with normal inflation is better than a growing economy with hyperinflation, because that second is never really growing, just the meaningless number is going up.

GDP calculation takes inflation into account otherwise even now the "meaningless number" would be growing with Milei.

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#63

Post by marcosdumay »

luzojeda wrote: post #59
marcosdumay wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What other way is there? Remember that inflation is something the government chooses to create. It's not some natural disaster. The other way is to remove the power to create it from the executive leader and give it to some institution that is more stable.

Of course but once you have 3 digits inflation, what other way to reduce is there besides cutting the supply of money suddenly in a shock? People won't like it, I didn't like it either but the two other presidents tried various methods such as price controls and that didn't help, on the contrary.

If you have long-lasting inflation, you need some shock to cut it. But reducing the supply of money only does shock, it's keeping it constant over the long term that avoids inflation.

And well, price control never works. This is well known. It's also well known that Argentina's last few presidents were people that wouldn't let patently known and unavoidable facts get in the way of their policies...

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#64

Post by wslh »

luzojeda wrote: post #60
wslh wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm from Argentina and 30 years old.. There’s a saying: “In Argentina, everything changes every day, but if you come back after ten years, nothing has changed.” In your case, you were born around 1994. Until you were about six years old, if you went to the supermarket with your family, you could probably keep track of prices in your head. By the time you were 16, the inflation rate was likely double what it is now.…

I don't think so because except for the 90s Argentina had inflation since the 1950s[0]. That 70 years old would only remember the 90s as the most stable period. Sure, the 60s weren't that bad but we still had high inflation. [0]: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/93/Ar... (just note the Y axis scale... if it were from 0 to 100 you would truly see there were very few years with 1 digit inflation)

First, it is important to highlight for people no familiar with Argentina that the current yearly "Milei" inflation is above 40% and it could be difficult to go much below. This inflation takes into account a very basic basket. The current inflation is very high and the country is in a recession. This is just a macroeconomic measure beyond Milei and its legacy.

Then, sorry, you are mistaken about historical inflation rates and you can check that easily [1]. Comparing just one year of government inflation as a data point is not enough to extrapolate, and I haven't started talking about carry trade that gives investors more than 10% per month in USD. Last time that happened, just two governments ago and with The same guy, there was a crash one day.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#65

Post by marcosdumay »

meiraleal wrote: post #61
luzojeda wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course but once you have 3 digits inflation, what other way to reduce is there besides cutting the supply of money suddenly in a shock? People won't like it, I didn't like it either but the two other presidents tried various methods such as price controls and that didn't help, on the contrary.

There are alternatives. Brazil fixed the hyperinflation problem in a different way, maybe Argentina should copy it: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-... previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9617710

Brazil pretty much did a monetary shock by reducing the money supply. Just like Milei.

We did more stuff besides the shock. But we also had more inflation, and it was more persistent.

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#66

Post by marcosdumay »

meiraleal wrote: post #62
marcosdumay wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When in borderline hyperinflation, the GDP number is meaningless. Also, a shrinking economy with normal inflation is better than a growing economy with hyperinflation, because that second is never really growing, just the meaningless number is going up.

GDP calculation takes inflation into account otherwise even now the "meaningless number" would be growing with Milei.

The inflation calculation is the one that doesn't get the inflation correctly into account. That's because it always have errors, and those errors grow more than linearly with the inflation rate.

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#67

Post by kerkeslager »

Barrin92 wrote: post #28
kerkeslager wrote: post #19

> "Argentina’s president is idolised by the Trumpian right. They should get to know him better" The subtext here seems to be that if the Trumpian right understood Milei, they would not idolize him. On the contrary, I believe that the Trumpian right understands Milei just fine: they're on board with his ideologies.

That's impossible to square. As the article points out, his drastic spending cuts and embrace of free trade are basically the radical opposite of where the US is going. Protectionism and industrial policy seem to now be consensus. Milei is the closest thing the world has gotten to Milton Friedman style politics in the last few decades and the American right now looks more like what in Britain or Canada you'd call a R…

Neither one of them follows an economic ideology: the only ideology either cares about is power. The oligarchies in the respective nations want different things, hence the surface differences you point out.

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#68

Post by tim333 »

seydor wrote: post #16
hackernewds wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

countries are not taking a page from Argentina. countries are taking a page from the United States electing someone like Donald Trump. https://www.scienceofrunning.com/2017/05/the-roger-bannister... the Roger Bannister effect

Trump's priority in 2016 was not deregulation, in 2024 it is. Hmm.

The first buddy Musk seems much more interested than Trump is.

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#69

Post by tim333 »

fire_lake wrote: post #53
drexlspivey wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably current singapore or 80s Hong Kong

Hong Kong is dense, tiny, central and resource poor. Isn’t Argentina basically the opposite?

The Hong Kong economic model could be applied to any country really. Though it benefited a bit from the cultures involved, the Chinese being quite industrious and the English doing quite well with law and order.

Re: Javier Milei: "My contempt for the state is infinite"

#70

Post by tim333 »

aylmao wrote: post #25
drexlspivey wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably current singapore or 80s Hong Kong

The state holds a lot of power in Singapore, it's very authoritarian. Sounds quite at odds to Milei and his libertarian idology.

The state is quite controlling in some areas like law and order and banning drugs but pretty laissez faire on economic policy.
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