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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#61

Post by dismalaf »

cen4 wrote: post #46
Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

> Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies

Growth that depends entirely on government spending can only last so long... First you blow all your reserves, then if/when you start printing money and hyperinflation kicks in even if the nominal GDP in the domestic currency appears to be rising, real GDP falls fast.

Because Russia's essentially a petro-state, they had sizable cash reserves with which to prop up their economy. Now you can see with the price of the Ruble that they've run out of the will to prop it up using foreign reserves (probably running low on foreign currency) and most estimates of their economic growth is that it'll stall or they'll see a recession for 2024 and beyond.

> The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

You're right that the west isn't serious. It's not that they don't think we can, it's that they're afraid the slightest hit to our living standards will erode support. While they might be right, we're sleepwalking into an even worse scenario...

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#62

Post by untech »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #60
untech wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

“Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data.” https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I don’t think they are shilling, but they look a bit obsessed with the topic. I wanted to point out to them how this looks from the outside.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#63

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

> Look up SSJ-100 production numbers

Now look at them post sanctions.

The SSJ-100 contains far more important systems (not parts) [1] than e.g. Embraer’s regional jets. It was designed with consultation from Boeing, including throughout manufacturing. Russia’s indigenous jets are terrible, and there is no reason to expect them to improve, they can’t compete against the Chinese for the anti-Western market.

To be fair to Sukhoi, this is how Boeing builds planes. If America were sanctioned by its allies, I’d similarly argue that Boeing, too, is incapable of mass manufacturing airliners.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20190402154855/https://www.uacru...

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#64

Post by analognoise »

cen4 wrote: post #46
Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

What? The EU and US aren’t in the war at all. We’re almost 3 years into Russia being unable to conquer a country 1/3 their size right on their border.

On top of all the damage done to them, and their advanced EW capabilities that have been captured and sent for analysis in the US, and exact knowledge of things like Kinzhal, the lost flag ships and submarine, the modern sea drones - this war is a disaster for Russia.

The US and EU aren’t even involved and Ukraine is holding its ground. Russia is doing so poorly that they’re not even considered a threat anymore in the West.

Their “GDP” numbers belie systemic economic weaknesses that show up when they have to BARTER for food. That’s how worthless their currency is.

Russia is basically completely pathetic at this point - they can terrorize countries that share a land border with them but can’t project power even past Ukraine.

They had to import starving North Koreans with antique shells and Iranian RC toys. Some superpower.

The US and EU don’t care about the war in the same way someone with a Ferrari doesn’t have to race someone with a Honda Civic - because they’re not a threat. Let the person in the Honda rev their engine and scream that they’d win - they’re just stupid. They look stupid.

They’ve lost what, 500k soldiers? They’re so much weaker than the Soviet Union it’s laughable.

The rest of the world disrespects them so much that they had $300B worth of Russian assets outside their country - and they were all seized. That was half their famed “sanction proofing”! What are they going to do about it? Nothing.

They have “hot” GDP based on faux demand for wartime goods - as they trade Rubles for oranges because nobody wants their currency. Does that sound viable to you? Laughable.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#65

Post by JumpCrisscross »

the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #56
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sanctions don't have a goal You missed the goal of sanctions on Russia? > MIL complex is on over drive This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. > mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can This is wrong. It’s a resource-commitment problem. Not one of capabilities or confidence.

> This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. The Russian economy is doing "mixed". It's a war economy which can be propped up for quite a while but it has significant structural issues that will take years to repair. The country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership. I find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet qui…

> country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership

It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come. And as much as Beijing is a rival to Washington, they’re rational in a way Moscow is not. Russia as a Chinese suzerainty is probably a better world configuration than Russia as a sovereign regional power.

> find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet quite confusing if pretty much every economic indicator says otherwise

The sanctions’ goal was to cripple the Russian economy in a militarily-relevant way. On this they failed and that has been widely discussed. Folks might be extrapolating that discussion inappropriately.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#66

Post by sedan_baklazhan »

untech wrote: post #59
sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

[flagged]

Dear untech, 1. I am both a Russian and a Russian citizen. 2. I comment a lot on Russia-related topics because I'm a Russian and I know quite a lot about Russia. 3. I'm also a software developer so I enjoy reading most HackerNews content. 4. Talking with people and learning their opinions seems worthwile to me. It's not really a waste of time.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#67

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #66
untech wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Dear untech, 1. I am both a Russian and a Russian citizen. 2. I comment a lot on Russia-related topics because I'm a Russian and I know quite a lot about Russia. 3. I'm also a software developer so I enjoy reading most HackerNews content. 4. Talking with people and learning their opinions seems worthwile to me. It's not really a waste of time.

For what it's worth, I appreciate your comments and find them civil and informative. (American. Comment a lot because Ukraine is my pet war.)

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#68

Post by cooljacob204 »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

Compared to other airliners those production number are small.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#69

Post by untech »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #67
sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dear untech, 1. I am both a Russian and a Russian citizen. 2. I comment a lot on Russia-related topics because I'm a Russian and I know quite a lot about Russia. 3. I'm also a software developer so I enjoy reading most HackerNews content. 4. Talking with people and learning their opinions seems worthwile to me. It's not really a waste of time.

For what it's worth, I appreciate your comments and find them civil and informative. (American. Comment a lot because Ukraine is my pet war.)

What is a pet war?

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#70

Post by ivan_gammel »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #39
hammock wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterintuitively, yes, because air travel is a Cournot good and you grow/make money by expanding supply (more planes), which they can’t

Which they can, because Russia produces aircraft domestically.

They have a big problem with producing modern engines and won’t catch up with the demand without Western suppliers for at least a decade, which means that in a couple of years this is going to be a huge problem.
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