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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#61

We will see what happens - but given nvidias growth and how heavy they are now weighted I’m skeptical there will be any enforcement until well after the elections. Neither party wants to look “bad for the economy”, even if the people harmed isn’t of significant size.

>> Neither party wants to look “bad for the economy You mean like the horrific jobs numbers that came out that nobody is covering either? Like bad like that??

there was nothing horrific about the jobs report. It was bad news, but we get bad news everyday.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#63
post #39
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There exists a third possibility where the US and China sign an under the table deal for China to invade, the US to saber rattle and China to allow the flow of chips to continue. The present direction seems to be the US is "de-risking" from Taiwan by moving chip production to the US, so if China does invade they aren't caught in a bind.

> The present direction seems to be the US is "de-risking" from Taiwan by moving chip production to the US, so if China does invade they aren't caught in a bind. This idea that the US is protecting Taiwan for its semiconductor prowess (aka the "silicon shield") is a very confusing idea to me as it ignores the period from the 40's to the 90's when Taiwan had no semiconductor manufacturing that wasn't being done as wel…

I am reasonably familiar with it, you're missing mentioning why the US defended Taiwan initially. The US stopped any formal defense of Taiwan in 1980, not to the 1990s. During the period it did have a defense treaty it was within the context of creating an anti communist bulwark, and such defence treaties (even with highly suspect partners) was the bread and butter of geopolitics in the Cold War. It was not because of some deep love of Taiwan or democracy, in fact Taiwan would only become a democracy after the defense treaty was terminated. And "ardent supporter" is a very tricky term, the US signed a declaration for the One China policy, which is completely against the idea of Taiwan as a separate nation(although at the time the KMT and people largely did not view Taiwan as an separate nation).

The silicon shield is undoubtedly a significant part of the calculus around Taiwan, especially wrt direct military intervention. Successive administrations have clearly shown their emphasis on maintaining access to key strategic resources (the Middle East and oil).

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#64
post #11
post #5

There needs to be an investigation, I know Nvidia will cry that they didn't break any rules while knowing their partners are forwarding GPUs to China, Russia, Iran, etc. Perhaps a multi-billion $$$ fine against Nvidia and sanctions against any country that was used as a party to these transactions are in order. This is a national security issue for the USA.

> This is a national security issue for the USA I'm skeptical. If it was actually a national security issue those GPUs would not be allowed to be sold to civilians. You can't have something that is easily portable and readily available to and tradable between civilians in the US and realistically expect it not to get out.

Is it even possible for civilians to buy enough data center nvidia gpus to train an LLM? I thought getting just one was pretty hard

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#65
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There exists a third possibility where the US and China sign an under the table deal for China to invade, the US to saber rattle and China to allow the flow of chips to continue. The present direction seems to be the US is "de-risking" from Taiwan by moving chip production to the US, so if China does invade they aren't caught in a bind.

Pretty sure TSMC has plans to destroy or disable their fabs in this event. They (or the Taiwanese) would be stupid not to.

It's completely speculative for us, but I'd point out only the US has incentive to do that, not Taiwan. The only reason Taiwan would do it is if they adopted a scorched earth policy like Saddam and the burning Kuwaiti oil fields. But even with a psychopathic dictator like Saddam, he never burned his own oil fields.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#66
post #51

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

> Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start. If it looked like Taiwan was actually going to fall, the first thing to be destroyed would be the fabs. There’s almost 0 chance China gets anything usable. If they thought they could, they would’ve invaded during Trump’s term.

Destroyed by who - the US or Taiwan? If by Taiwan, IMO it is extremely unlikely. Scorched earth tactics have only been used by the most bitter, determined combatants in a conflict, who are expecting a long protracted war. The cutting edge chips have enormous economic value but virtually no immediate or even medium term military value to China (the time it would take to design and start using them in hardware is years at least).

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#67

I am not sure I buy this argument that Nvidia management was complicit, but it does need investigation.

As the article states, Singapore accounted for 20% (!) of Nvidias total revenue. You think management wasn't aware that something was going on? A country with about 2% of the GDP of the US and non of the large AI companies? Management either was involved or willfully looked the other way the alternative is that they are so grossly incompetent and non-involved in the company that it's hard to believe.

That’s like getting surprised that Delaware accounts for 60% of Fortune 500 companies. Singapore nowadays is the main financial hub that connects the East and the West.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#68
post #35

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

> there's less incentive for China to control Taiwan. a very minor effect imho. china doesn't want to control taiwan due to any economic reasons. It's ideological. China doesn't want the model of a free, democratic society of chinese people to exist, because it proves that the CCP's authoritarianism isn't the only "good" model. Look at how hong kong was cracked down; china took the opportunity to do it, when the econ…

This is a somewhat shallow and more buzz phrasey explanation of it. China wanted to invade Taiwan long before it became a democracy. And China is adjacent to many prosperous democracies like Japan and South Korea. Not to mention the hundred million middle class Chinese tourists and numerous students who can see the developed democracies with their own eyes.

With Occam's razor, the simple answer is really that they consider it part of China for historical and cultural reasons. Taiwan did the same for many years.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#69

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#70
post #35

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

> there's less incentive for China to control Taiwan. a very minor effect imho. china doesn't want to control taiwan due to any economic reasons. It's ideological. China doesn't want the model of a free, democratic society of chinese people to exist, because it proves that the CCP's authoritarianism isn't the only "good" model. Look at how hong kong was cracked down; china took the opportunity to do it, when the econ…

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