200,000 is quite a bit smaller than infinite.
Clearly not infinite monkeys or infinite time.
If either were truly infinite not only would this be possible, it would be mandatory and would occur infinite times.
Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
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Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
Flawed point if it is used to justify the random speciation of evolution. If they can't type out shakespeare, how can evolution randomly yet correctly type out billions of base sequences of dna in just a cple mil yrs?
correctly is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, and the selection process in evolution is not random.
The actual problem is upstream of that at the abiogenesis stage.
For evolutionary selection to occur the machinery for selection must exist. Specifically information storage (DNA/RNA), replication(polymerases) and actioning (transcription) all are needed, and must continue to be able to exist for long enough to matter.
Without selection pressure and inheritance you're just left with requiring a big enough universe and enough time for randomness not to matter.
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#63How long would it take a computer or set of computers to pick random characters and generate the complete work
how long for 1 paragraph how long for 1 page how long for 1 chapter
etc etc
Does it get harder/slower by a factor?
would be an interesting exercise
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#64No-one ever said it would happen within a finite time period, only that it would happen given infinite time. That’s the whole point.
Flawed point if it is used to justify the random speciation of evolution. If they can't type out shakespeare, how can evolution randomly yet correctly type out billions of base sequences of dna in just a cple mil yrs?
You're comparing chalk and cheese to an extent, a perfect copy of Shakespeare's work can exist in exactly one way but DNA isn't required to be copied perfectly, DNA can change without necessarily killing the organism or otherwise rendering it unable to reproduce. Additionally evolution is not a random process, while mutations are random the process by which the mutations are selected is not - it depends on whether the mutation is a reproductive advantage for the organism in the context of their ecological niche. Most mutations are going to be neutral or disadvantageous so they won't be selected. Additionally you're not mutating the whole DNA sequence at once, just parts of it.
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's sort of like calculating the probability of a hash collision. The speed at which the monkeys type is also a factor.
How fast do monkeys type?
>> For the timescale calculations, we assume that a monkey typist presses one key per second every second of the day
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#66we need more monkeys
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#67Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#68200,000 is quite a bit smaller than infinite.
Clearly not infinite monkeys or infinite time. If either were truly infinite not only would this be possible, it would be mandatory and would occur infinite times.
Sounds to me that the more interesting question would be graphing out the relationship of time and the amount of monkeys needed for one to write Shakespeare.
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#69The theorem is called "infinite monkey theorem". That means infinite amount of time. A googol years is not infinite, it's infinite times smaller than that. In an infinite amount of time they will write Shakespeare works (if they type randomly enough and not with some bias like never typing certain combinations of letters) Also, at least the article could have said what the actual probability is then? Are we talking 1…
Yeah, I might be naive, since they're professional mathematicians and I'm not, but their conclusion feels like saying that they "tested" the concept of infinity and found that it's simply unreachable. To me, the infinite monkey theorem is an abstract idea and not something that needs to be "tested", though it's certainly fun to run the numbers.
Re: Universe would die before monkey with keyboard writes Shakespeare, study finds
#70we need more monkeys
I was recently reminded of The Codeless Code. In that set of stories, there's the Laughing Monkey Clan.
http://thecodelesscode.com/names/Laughing+Monkey+Clan
Specialists in the business tier, where monkey business usually happens. Members of this clan have a traditional fighting style which involves throwing wrenches at their opponents; this is tolerated because it is not the worst thing that Monkeys have been known to throw.
There is a theory that a finite number of Laughing Monkeys pounding away randomly at a finite number of keyboards will eventually get a clean compile. The existence of the Standard PHP Library would seem to imply that this has already happened.