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Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

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Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#61

Post by worstspotgain »

FeepingCreature wrote: post #54
worstspotgain wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only that, we're approaching a massive tipping point in just a couple of weeks. Some of the "poser pontificators" claim to be concerned about the climate, yet they're not even sure they will vote. If you have relatives in college in MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, NV or AZ who are concerned about the climate, get them to shake off the stupor.

I mean, I'm not even sure which way I'd vote for climate. Here's one take: "Things are clearly out of control. We need climate mitigations that can be done unilaterally. One promising and surprisingly-feasible approach is a sun-synchronous solar-shade swarm.[1] That needs very cheap and frequent launches to be feasible. The only option is SpaceX/Starship. Politically, to get that going as soon as possible, it may be…

That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. Why not just steer an asteroid onto Earth. The sooner it gets obliterated, the sooner life can reemerge. /s

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#62

Post by ghastmaster »

pjc50 wrote: post #36
ghastmaster wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise. Temperature and co2 increases are beneficial to plant growth. What is the problematic aspect you are referring to?

Most plants have a range of acceptable temperatures. Drought is also an issue, which is downstream both literally and metaphorically of rainfall and its interaction with climate.

I find it hard to reconcile that the entire world is going to be going through cycles of drought and flooding over and over due to a moderate increase in temperature and co2. Where in earth's history is the basis for this? We have had far higher temperature and co2 levels during periods of great animal and plant growth.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#63

Post by arj »

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #47
arj wrote: post #22

We all live in the same planet, the most reasonable way to share this is that we get an equal share. For far to long certain countries have taken up much more of their share. To such a point that our whole carbon budget has been used in a single or two generations. Now is the time for those better of to contribute their fair share in solving this mess.

To quote Reagan: > The American people, the most generous on earth, who created the highest standard of living, are not going to accept the notion that we can only make a better world for others by moving backwards ourselves. We need to embrace carbon-free electricity (whether its nuclear or solar or whatever) and electrify as many things as possible. Degrowth isn't a humane solution, and it would first require the d…

We have a finite amount of carbon left. Each year we are already exceeding our share. This in itself means that future generations have less. At the same time, some people use more than others. It's not a matter if degrowth but about sharing ressources fairly.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#64

Post by Faaak »

concordDance wrote: post #24
namaria wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are collectively in full on denial about the consequences of climate change. Only directly accountable organizations like militaries and insurers are actually acting on the data. People are still buying cheap stuff from overseas, traveling and generally spending energy like there's no tomorrow. We will only see real changes in behavior and policy once coastal flooding in major metropolises becomes a reality a few…

Why do people keep bringing up coastal flooding? Its one of the smallest and least concerning climate change effects. The 10cm sea level rise over the next few decades isnt very relevant and the speculation about increased storms is highly location dependent and low confidence. Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise. Its also very degrowth to conflate energy use with CO2 emissions. Many type…

Because it will remove plenty of land https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z and displace plenty of people

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#65

Post by ghastmaster »

alperakgun wrote: post #58

Does being in an El Niño period affect the average world temperature?

Likewise, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption resulted in a large amount of water into the stratosphere. Water is far more an effective heat trap than co2. We do not know exactly how long the effects of this eruption will last.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga–Hunga_Haʻap...

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#66

Post by defrost »

wordofx wrote: post #52
notanormalnerd wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weather is not climate...

“What’s Causing the Recent Spike in Global Temperatures?”

They're not talking about local weather, they're talking about longer timeframe lager region moving averages.

Eg: three month moving average for a north american climatic cell rather than a local daily spring tempreture.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#67

Post by piva00 »

pixelfarmer wrote: post #3
sheefrex wrote: post #2

I opened this article hoping it would mention the point about the rules concerning reduced sulfur content of the fuel used in super tanker marine shipping, and it didn't disappoint: "A lot of people have looked at the impact of the marine shipping regulation change. If you take that and you put it into some climate model and you estimate the temperature change, right now you’d expect about 0.05 of a degree, 0.08 of a…

There was a recent article in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-c... Seems like the models have quite a few holes. It made me wonder if anyone has considered making a complete list of assumptions that are baked into these models, so they can be looked at in detail.

> It made me wonder if anyone has considered making a complete list of assumptions that are baked into these models, so they can be looked at in detail.

Yes, they did, it's called an "ensemble model" when multiple models are collated to account for their different modelings.

A friend of mine did his physics PhD on cloud formation at a molecular level exactly to tackle the issue some models had to account for that over longer time scales, most of the holes you can think of from the top of your head have been considered, there are many thousands of very smart people working on these models for the past 30-40 years.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#68

Post by ghastmaster »

defrost wrote: post #34
readthenotes1 wrote: post #28

Wasn't this a result of removing sulfur from Ocean going vessel fuels?

No. Nor the water vapor producing volcanic eruption either. Both are addressed in the article along with other possibilities.

> Nor the water vapor producing volcanic eruption either.

The article referred to the "first study" but did not mention which study that was. According to the Wikipedia article, initial thoughts were that cooling would happen, but a later study disagrees. Trust the science you agree with.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL09...

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#69

Post by schnuri »

vasco wrote: post #50
schnuri wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s important to point out that German car manufacturers and the German government opposed import tariffs on Chinese cars.

To think things get done in the EU without Germany's approval is a bit past naivety. Germany publicly voted no to try and delay a Chinese reprisal too fast in counter tariffs, but that's just for optics, otherwise they wouldn't have been approved. It's incredible how one can see what happens in practice but believe what people say rather than what people do.

That’s just a conspiracy theory. You overestimate Germanys power in the EU by far, it is not 2009 anymore.

Also, German car manufacturers will not profit from these tariffs.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#70

Post by namaria »

anodari wrote: post #60
onetokeoverthe wrote: post #14

The skeptical view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYhCQv5tNsQ

You mean the deniers' view. There may have been skeptics 20 years ago, but now no one seriously doubts it. I don't understand how technology people make decisions to deny a problem even if there is no 100% certainty. In my company, even if there is less than a 1% chance of something going wrong, we have to think of ways to mitigate it.

Anthropogenic global warming has been proposed and modeled since the late XVIII century. The window to reasonably doubt it has been closed since at least the 1980s when Exxon put it on paper they knew about it and wanted to suppress awareness about it.
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