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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

goldmansachs.com

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#61

The biggest problem in Germany at the moment is that a high percentage of chargers are broken. Here is a supermarket with chargers, broken for weeks now. Imagine the outcry if 50% of gas pumps were broken all the time.

Tesla superchargers are rarely down. Not sure what they’re doing differently, but it shows that EV chargers CAN be reliable, but a lot of companies haven’t figured it out yet.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#62
post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers. I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

I believe GP might be taking about an add-on, not a substitute for the existing battery. Perhaps a tiny trailer hooked up to a standardized coupling that you rent when you are venturing out on something that's more than an hour of driving.

It would mostly be a challenge for mechanical engineers, to come up with some solution that does not ruin driving characteristics too. Perhaps even involving some heavily computerized active suspension, just not a dangling ticket trivial mini trailer that swings into dangerous resonance...

Swapping the floorboard batteries, yeah, won't happen. You'd rather see the battery car self-driving in close slipstream formation connected with a transmission wire that's never mechanically loaded.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#63
post #12
post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

People really need to get away from that notion electric vehicles need to be as similar as possible to ICE vehicles. Most people living in cities don’t ever require that range, because 99% of their rides will be constrained to less than 50 kilometers. And even on the countryside, few people need to drive such long stretches on a single charge. Keeping up this stoic desire to not having to change your habits around dr…

Even if you drive 10km per day the big advantage of long range is that you don't have to refuel/recharge frequently.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#64

The biggest problem in Germany at the moment is that a high percentage of chargers are broken. Here is a supermarket with chargers, broken for weeks now. Imagine the outcry if 50% of gas pumps were broken all the time.

I've worked with these chargers. It is shoddy software that usually is the problem.

The algorithm to detect ground faults is a major culprit.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#65
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People really need to get away from that notion electric vehicles need to be as similar as possible to ICE vehicles. Most people living in cities don’t ever require that range, because 99% of their rides will be constrained to less than 50 kilometers. And even on the countryside, few people need to drive such long stretches on a single charge. Keeping up this stoic desire to not having to change your habits around dr…

Even if you drive 10km per day the big advantage of long range is that you don't have to refuel/recharge frequently.

Yeah, but as it turns out our planet can’t sustain that model of consumption. The challenging technology requires you to insert a plug at night. Is that really that tough of a sale?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#66
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

It’s definitely a hyperbole number I made up. The point is that the technology isn’t equal or better, but different . It has other constraints and capabilities, but pretending an engine is an engine as long as the hood is closed gets us in the current situation where car builders struggle to recreate ICEs, but electric, consumers are never satisfied because they have wrong expectations, and regulators don’t ensure th…

> consumers are never satisfied because they have wrong expectations

Consumers are satisfied with buying ICE vehicles, which is why 90-something percent of them do just that when buying a new vehicle. You’re not saying anything about consumers expectations here, what’s happening is (most of them) just they don’t want what EVs are selling. You can’t be wrong about wanting something, we’re all allowed to choose what it is that we want for ourselves.

This is just the EV version of “the world would be much nicer if everybody thought like me” argument.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#67
post #14
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What % of cars have this range? Not your diesel f150, the real cars real people with real everyday lives drive My Hyundai i30 has a 600km range, max.

Range is kinda irrelevant if you live in a place where filling stations are ubiquitous. Going 850 km in my old petrol-powered car required just one five-minute stop.

850 km without breaks?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermar…

How does that work when all cars are electric? Fighting with some guy at the grocery store for a charging port? I'm not trying to be inflammatory asking that, I genuinely wonder what the approach is supposed to be if suddenly everyone went and bought an electric car. I always hear that "you can charge all over the place" but I'll see like, two charging stalls in a giant parking lot. I wonder what the future looks lik…

I think really, like your parent said, people charge them at home. In the UK, energy providers have plans where they schedule charging overnight so it costs next to nothing. It costs about £10 / month for a family vehicle that gets daily use.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#69

The biggest problem in Germany at the moment is that a high percentage of chargers are broken. Here is a supermarket with chargers, broken for weeks now. Imagine the outcry if 50% of gas pumps were broken all the time.

Tesla superchargers are rarely down. Not sure what they’re doing differently, but it shows that EV chargers CAN be reliable, but a lot of companies haven’t figured it out yet.

This has been changing since Musk fired the supercharger team. I found one location where the entire set was nonfunctional and no indication in the car app.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#70
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What % of cars have this range? Not your diesel f150, the real cars real people with real everyday lives drive My Hyundai i30 has a 600km range, max.

A diesel F150 will easily do 1,000km+ on a full tank.

Yes. That's my point. They can, lots of diesel tractors can. Family cars owned by most people do not have 2000km range tanks and it's ludicrous to define a barrier to acceptance that far north of lived experience for most people.

It's called range anxiety for a reason. People are anxious about it. But, it's disconnected from what a trip meter tells us about average commute, daily drive.

Cue hoardes of "but i live rural and drive 30,000km a day" responses. Because people don't understand averages and what on average most people do. I know I drive below average, i checked. I do about 1/3 to 1/4 of an average Australian driver. I also know these 200km daily commute drivers are a wild outlier, not the norm. The people whining about e-vehicle range snipe social media to headline their justified concerns to their outlier behaviour and distort the conversation.

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