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OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#61

Post by lynx23 »

Someone1234 wrote: post #31

I hope better competition appear before the enshittification begins. As far as I understand it they're actually underwater on their API and even $20/month pricing, so we'll either see prices aggressively increase and or additional revenue streams like ads or product placement in results. We've witnessed that every time a company's valuation is impossibly high: They do anything they can to improve outlook in an attemp…

"This hallucination was brought to you by the coca cola company."

Given how picky the ad industry can be about where their ads are being placed, I somehow suspect this is going to be complicated. After all, every paragraph produced is potentially plain untrue.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#63

Post by bryanlarsen »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #21
cs702 wrote: post #4

Given the high risk, investors likely want a shot of earning at least a 10x return. $157 billion x 10 = $1.57 trillion, greater than META's current market capitalization. Greater returns would require even more aggressive assumptions. For example, a 30x return would require OpenAI to become the world's most valuable company by a large margin. All I can say to the investors, with the best of hopes, is: Good luck! You'…

>You'll need it! If they can IPO, they will easily hit a $1.5T valuation. All Altman would have to do is follow what Elon did with Tesla. Lots of massive promises marinated in trending hype that tickles the hearts of dumb money. No need to deliver, just keep promising. He is already doing it.

If OpenAI hits $100B in revenue, $15B in profit with a 50% CAGR they will likely be worth even more than Tesla was at those numbers.

Tesla has really dropped off on its 50% CAGR number so now it is worth half that.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#64

Post by benterix »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #46
jsheard wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fine, Sam's bulletproof plan is to build AGI (how hard could it be) and then ask the AGI how they can make a return on their investments. https://www.threads.net/@nixcraft/post/C5vj0naNlEq If they haven't built AGI yet that just means you should give them more billions so they can build the AGI. You wouldn't want your earlier investments to go to waste, right?

The funny thing about that statement is that if it actually does become true, all of those VCs (and Altman himself), whose job is ostensibly to find the optimal uses for capital, would immediately become obsolete. Heck, the whole idea that capitalism could just continue along in its current form if true AGI existed is pretty laughable.

There are so many things wrong in this statement (starting with "immediately"). Let's assume they built a system they claim is AGI. Let's assume its energy consumption is smaller than that of a small country. Let's assume that we can verify it's AGI. Let's assume its intelligence is higher than average human. That's many "ifs" and I omitted quite a few.

Now, the question is: would you trust it? As a human, a manager, a president? With the current generation, I treat is as a dumb but quick typist, it can create code much faster than I can, but the responsibility to verify it all is entirely on me. We would need decades of proof such an AGI is reliable in order to actually start trusting it - and even then, I'm not sure how safe it would be.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#65

Post by diffeomorphism »

moralestapia wrote: post #41
lupire wrote: post #3

Does OpenAI have a moat?

It does. "ChatGPT", GPT, "OpenAI", etc... are strong brands associated with it. Edit: You can downvote me all you want, I have plenty of karma to spare. This is OpenAI's strongest moat, whether people like it or not.

GPT is a generic tool name.

Those moats are pretty weak. People use Apple Idioticnaming or MS Copilot or Google whatever, which transparently use some interchangeable model in the background. Compared to chatgpt these might not be as smart, but have much easier access to OS level context.

In other words: Good luck defending this moat against OS manufacturers with dominant market shares.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#66

Post by petesergeant »

cubefox wrote: post #12
jjice wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a layman outsider, it doesn't seem like it. Anthropic is doing great work (I personally prefer Claude) and now there are so many quality LLMs coming out that I don't know if OpenAI is particularly special anymore. They had a lead at first, but it feels like many others are catching up. I could be _very_ wrong though.

They recently released a new model, called "o1-preview", that is significantly ahead of the competition in terms of mathematical reasoning.

> that is significantly ahead

Perhaps, but at most generous, it’s three months ahead of competitors I imagine

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#67

Post by kredd »

teqsun wrote: post #38

After Theranos and WeWork, I'm always skeptical of any Pre-IPO "valuations".

For every Theranos and WeWork, there’s Uber, Coinbase, AirBnb. I know they didn’t raise as much as OpenAI, but it wasn’t insignificant amount of money burning before they became profitable with large market caps. It’s very strange times we’re living in.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#69

Post by _1 »

kredd wrote: post #67
teqsun wrote: post #38

After Theranos and WeWork, I'm always skeptical of any Pre-IPO "valuations".

For every Theranos and WeWork, there’s Uber, Coinbase, AirBnb. I know they didn’t raise as much as OpenAI, but it wasn’t insignificant amount of money burning before they became profitable with large market caps. It’s very strange times we’re living in.

Have any of those become profitable?

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#70

Post by hshshshsvsv »

m3kw9 wrote: post #50
hshshshsvsv wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called llama. And it's free.

Llama sucks man vs the best models sorry you cannot really be serious

I have only tried it with gpt4. Seems to be doing a pretty good job? What models should I try?
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