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Artificial intelligence is losing hype

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#61
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does it mean to be a skeptic here? Have you tried ChatGPT? Copilot?

Perhaps I should have said "AI hype-skeptic"? I am just not seeing the productivity gains that others claim ITT.

AI is a tool, if you don't know how to use a tool you can't expect to get good results with it. That means both how to interact with the AI and how to structure your code to make the AI's generations more accurate.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#62

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

> but I am yet to see any reasoned argument for why it is far more difficult and will take far longer

I am yet to see any reasoned argument for why it is easy to build real AI and that it will come fast.

As you said, AI has been there for decades and stagnated for pretty much the whole time. We've just had a big leap, but nothing says (except BS hype) that we're not in for a long plateau again.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#63

This supposed “cycle” has been crazy it’s been about 1.5 years since gpt4 came out, which is really the first generally capable model. I think a lot of this “cycle” is media’s wishful thinking. Humans, especially humans in large bureaucracies, just don't move this quickly. Enterprises have barely had time to dip their toes in. For what it’s worth hype doesn’t mean sustainability anyway. If all the jokers go onto a ne…

I’ve had a lot of corporate clients this year Large and small, entire development teams are completely unaware of the basics of “prompt engineering” for coding, and corporate has an entirely regressive anti-AI policy that doesnt factor in the existence of locally run language models, and just assumes ChatGPT and cloud based ones digesting trade secrets. People arent interested in seeing what the hype is about, and ar…

Go back ten+ years, replace AI with cloud and it was the same. I saw ‘no cloud’ policies everywhere. But most of the anti-cloud people have since retired, so even the most hidebound of organisations are adopting it. It will probably take another round of retirements for AI to adopted in the more conservative environments.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#64
post #33
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are you using AI to double your coding productivity? Are you using ChatGPT, or Claude, or GitHub Copilot? I am an AI-skeptic, so I am curious here. Thanks!

I've tried various AI coding solutions and have found at best a mild boost but not the amazing multipliers I hear about online. Copilot gives you some autofill that sometimes can be helpful but often not that helpful. I think the best it did for me was helping with something repetitive where I was editing a big list of things in the same way (like adding an ID to every tag in a list) and it helped take over and finis…

I don’t know if I’ve done something wrong my my copilot is so wrong I just turned it off. I don’t understand the appeal at all.

I don’t remember the last time I thought one of its suggestions was useful. For me LSP has been the real game changer.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#65
post #33
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are you using AI to double your coding productivity? Are you using ChatGPT, or Claude, or GitHub Copilot? I am an AI-skeptic, so I am curious here. Thanks!

I've tried various AI coding solutions and have found at best a mild boost but not the amazing multipliers I hear about online. Copilot gives you some autofill that sometimes can be helpful but often not that helpful. I think the best it did for me was helping with something repetitive where I was editing a big list of things in the same way (like adding an ID to every tag in a list) and it helped take over and finis…

It can get a little tedious if you are just using ChatGPT or Claude as it is. Also you are limited by lack of context on existing codebase.

That's why there are a lot of tools that help to setup a proper workflow around these LLMs.

For terminal-based workflow, you can checkout aider or plandex.

For GUI-based workflow, you can try 16x Prompt (I built it).

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#66

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

On the current state of AI - do you believe it has "intelligence" or is the underlying system a "prediction machine"?

What signs do you see that make you believe that the next level (biological intelligence) is on the horizon?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#67
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. You probably shouldn't advertise that.

I am highly skeptical that a competent coder sees a 2x boost.

I use multiple daily and have definitely seen a productivity boost. If nothing else, it saves typing. But I'd argue they are in essence a better search engine - it answers "you don't know what you don't know" questions very well, providing a jumping off point when my conception of how to achieve something with code or tooling is vague.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#68

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

What's the next big step? What will it do? Why do we need or want it? Surely you have the answer.

This means you are sure we are close to automated driving, engineering and hospitality?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#69

I was out at Defcon this year and it was all about AI this, AI that, AI will solve the worlds problems, AI will catch all threats, blah blah blah blah...

I work with people like this. The least skilled, least experienced, least productive people on my team constantly recommend “AI” solutions that are just a waste of time.

I think that’s what people like about AI, it’s hope, maybe you won’t have to learn anything but still be productive. Sounds nice ?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#70
post #62

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

> but I am yet to see any reasoned argument for why it is far more difficult and will take far longer I am yet to see any reasoned argument for why it is easy to build real AI and that it will come fast. As you said, AI has been there for decades and stagnated for pretty much the whole time. We've just had a big leap, but nothing says (except BS hype) that we're not in for a long plateau again.

Well he gave you a list of credentials of why you should believe him. Isn’t that enough ?
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