Earlier quoted context omitted.
How so? Huge flooding in Brazil this year, they are not recovering any time soon. Poor countries lack the resources that rich countries literally burn for their luxury.
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Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
61–70 of 244 posts
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#62Better satellites and other aerial survey data has determined that oil and gas related methane emissions are far, far higher than industry reports. Everywhere independent researchers look along the production, transmission, distribution and end use pipeline they find more leakage than has been assumed because industry has provided the numbers the assumptions are based on for years. Along some particularly leaky produ…
Those 100 year timescale numbers are misleading as the impact is so front loaded. They only make sense when talking about an emissions that are constant through long timescales.
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure if your answer is intended to be serious or sarcastic. But there is a justifiable argument for it -- you have new humans to take care of, who have needs, and the same moral claim as anyone else in the world nto address those needs using fossil fuels. On the other hand, there's no reason to think that an increase in the number of countries is a valid excuse to increase emissions.
Leading to the conclusion: those few people (government) who have the greatest influence over the problem (over the countries with the largest emissions in real terms, not per person) somehow don't have the responsibility. It's true that if a country splits into two countries, that doesn't give them a right to emit more collectively. However, it does mean that each country now has little control over what the other o…
> in real terms
I’m not sure how better to dice up emissions then by consumption per person, and by that measure the US is clearly emitting the most
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...
Conversely China is doing the most about emissions
> China commissioned as much solar PV as the entire world did in 2022, while its wind additions also grew by 66% year-on-year.
https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2023/executive-summar...
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#64Better satellites and other aerial survey data has determined that oil and gas related methane emissions are far, far higher than industry reports. Everywhere independent researchers look along the production, transmission, distribution and end use pipeline they find more leakage than has been assumed because industry has provided the numbers the assumptions are based on for years. Along some particularly leaky produ…
In Massachusetts, Lost and Unaccounted for Gas (LAUG) is estimated per mile of pipe, rather than evaluated by regulators or even industry. It is a simple multiplication problem with little bearing on reality. Consumers bear the cost of LAUG while the utilities are guaranteed a 10% profit on their infrastructure expenses. This, along with subsidies for leak prone pipe replacement, leads to needless investment in outmoded fossil fuel infrastructure (i.e., pipe replacement) being prioritized over leak repair.
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not even close. https://jonathanfranzen.com/what-if-we-stopped-pretending/
The article was written in 2019 before a number of extraordinarily significant events with major climate policy impacts: - a noticeable and rapid dip in emissions has proven to be viable due to COVID lockdowns - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Europe and the US to accelerate plans to diversify energy generation away from natural gas - China’s insanely rapid growth in green energy production domestically It seems…
This data is good for cognitive behavioral therapy and not much else.
In that, the world is certainly not going to end, and maybe it's helpful to look at some data that trends positive in order to inspire hope. But we are committed now to living in a world that will be radically different and less pleasant for a lot of people. How fast these trends improve will determine the scope and magnitude of degraded pleasentness.
Regardless of any change, more extreme weather events more frequently will become more normal. The socioeconomic impacts that are likely to be the most jarring in the global north will probably surface from migration pressure as people from the global south are displaced due to heat and sea level rise.
It is optimistic to think that we'll be on track for 2 degrees of warming, let alone 1.5. At this point, the quiet part just starting to be said out loud is that we'll never hit 1.5. We'll probably never achieve any semblance of the paris agreement goals.
And even as we approach 2 degrees, 2050 looks hotter and more extreme than anything humans have ever experienced in the past.
Probably one of the only short term options between now and 2100 will be solar radiation management -- a largely untested tech that is surely a terrible outcome.
I'm just summarizing the latest IPCC synthesis report [1]. Adding a bit of editorialization in perceived outcomes. One of the most conservative organizations on earth, their assessment is bleak: systems are already permanently damaged, and they're likely to become more so in the near-to-distant future.
My goal is not to make anyone reading despondent. I just think these kind of short snipes of perceived positive trends bury the reality of the situation that we are living through.
If the goal is to assure us that the world's not going to end, it's quite a low bar to set. And there's quite a gradient of suffering between.
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#66The methane plume is 2 km off from the blowout location:
https://satellites.pro/Kazakhstan_map#A45.338220,52.376976,1...
It is probably a pipeline leak.
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Leading to the conclusion: those few people (government) who have the greatest influence over the problem (over the countries with the largest emissions in real terms, not per person) somehow don't have the responsibility. It's true that if a country splits into two countries, that doesn't give them a right to emit more collectively. However, it does mean that each country now has little control over what the other o…
> in real terms I’m not sure how better to dice up emissions then by consumption per person, and by that measure the US is clearly emitting the most https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit... Conversely China is doing the most about emissions > China commissioned as much solar PV as the entire world did in 2022, while its wind additions also grew by 66% year-on-year. https://www.iea.org/reports/r…
It's great if China is genuinely going renewable. I read about this often. But I also read that they're the biggest producers of coal (confusingly both the biggest importers and exporters, and consumers). Still, maybe that's being phased out.
But why do you want to "slice up" emissions at all, if you're interested in reducing them? The problem is a big load of gas. So identify the biggest emitters (in total volume) with the most control over it. Don't say "oh San Marino, you're a really greedy country, with all your tax haven shenanigans and conspicuous consumption and more cars than people, you're the problem", because they really aren't. They may be really awful, but that wasn't the question and isn't something it's viable to fix, nor are they capable of helping more than minutely, unlike a giant authoritarian state with giant emissions, capable of helping a lot. And perhaps, as you point out, already doing so.
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#68We’re not going to make it are we?
Only time will tell. But the things to do to try to avert looming disaster are the same things to do to be a better person in times of no crisis. Be kind and loving, develop compassion. That's pretty much it. The point is not to make it or not. Entropy is the enemy and it will win in the end. So what? No one here gets out alive. The point is to be a better person, to help others, to make things better. If we are goin…
> The point is not to make it or not.
I fundamentally and vociferously disagree. The point is to ensure sapience and intelligence survive the heat death of the universe.
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not even close. https://jonathanfranzen.com/what-if-we-stopped-pretending/
The article was written in 2019 before a number of extraordinarily significant events with major climate policy impacts: - a noticeable and rapid dip in emissions has proven to be viable due to COVID lockdowns - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Europe and the US to accelerate plans to diversify energy generation away from natural gas - China’s insanely rapid growth in green energy production domestically It seems…
And yet, do you know when the hottest month on record was? It's easy to answer: last month.
It's been "last month" for the last 12 months at least. Basically, we've hit the J curve.
The "extraordinarily significant events" you cite amount to little more than a guy who jumped off a bridge thinking: "you know, I think I've changed my mind".
(And yet, we just bought $700 of seedlings and I spent my birthday, and many other days planting them. It's not a pointless exercise, it will improve things in my little corner, but it won't materially affect anything either).
Re: Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout
#70We’re not going to make it are we?
We'll be fine. We'll have to make adjustments, but we'll be fine. So will the planet, and so will the vast majority of animals.
"Vast majority of the animals"
You know that the extinction rate of species (which includes animals) is running at approximately 200 per day.
Unless you mean the vast majority of animals in the sense of numbers of individual animals, instead of diversity of species, then maybe you're right: the vast majority will be fine as the biomass of domestic animals now outweight the biomass of every other species.