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Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

blog.jonathannolan.net

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Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a link to a summary? I missed it, if it ever made the front page news. IANAdeveloper… if a developer is otherwise within code/zoning, SCOTUS is probably correct. If they’re asking for zoning changes, there should be room for negotiation on nearby improvements.

News article about it: https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/supreme-court-ruli...

This is the ruling, thanks.

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One development of 5 houses might not move the needle on that, but it then opens the door to neighbors doing the same thing, which could very much require major investment in infrastructure for the area. But then there is a corresponding increase in property tax revenues to pay for it, so this should require no approval and just be something that happens. The city pays for the new infrastructure from the taxes paid…

So the city has to build a new $50 million dollar sewage treatment plant in the hopes of getting that paid back over 50 years of property taxes, and gets no say in the matter or the cities budget? Sewage treatment plants have finite capacity, can't be built on a 'serves 20 units' incremental scale, and oftentimes new plants have much stricter requirements than grandfathered in one. Not everywhere is the bay area wher…

> Not everywhere is the bay area where they can scale up by just piping it out a few miles into the ocean and call it good.

At least in the San Jose area, the sewage treatment was largely built 50 years ago, when it was doing a lot of agriculture, and flows are way lower with people than they were with food processing and other industrial processing. The new plant that's in progress needs and has way less capacity, even though the standards are much much much tighter.

At the one house per acre level though, you can likely manage with septic, which is incremental sewage treatment capacity, and not a huge municipal undertaking (there is record keeping and regulation and what not, so it's not nothing)

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> by taxing / fining people for having a second home. I don't see the issue with this? The profits in Canadian real estate are not on the back of some new found resource. It's entirely an effective wealth redistribution from have-nots to haves. If you have property, the vast amount of value in it is strictly from the fact that it is artificially scarce. To get into the "haves" you have to pay an artificial tax in the…

No, no, the government interjecting themselves into housing and creating an artificial scarcity, to aid their favoured voters at the time, is the problem. The idea that the solution to this is not to have the government step back but to have them become even more involved by redistributing this wealth distortion to their new favoured voters is a further level of madness.

This is my point above 100%. The government has been the sole source of these problems and now is desperate to solve them, steamrolling people without compensation.

The same, in my opinion, with inflation. Inflation has been caused by government monetary policy being too loose for three decades and effectively neutering its anti-competition authorities, but now they are getting tough on grocers as if the grocers are both the sole cause of the problem (false!) and that they made the problem in a vacuum (false!).

I have historically been extremely liberal, voting Liberal or NDP (even more liberal than the Liberals for those outside Canada) my whole life. The last few years of seeing our Liberal government fumble the ball so badly and point at everyone but the government itself (left and right governments of the current and past!) has made me realize the truth of the Reagan quote “government isn’t the solution to your problems, it is the source of your problems”.

Hayek’s Nobel speech on the pretence of knowledge is as accurate as ever.

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#64
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> by taxing / fining people for having a second home. I don't see the issue with this? The profits in Canadian real estate are not on the back of some new found resource. It's entirely an effective wealth redistribution from have-nots to haves. If you have property, the vast amount of value in it is strictly from the fact that it is artificially scarce. To get into the "haves" you have to pay an artificial tax in the…

The grossly inflated price comes from where though? I'd put it to you that a ban on usury where real estate was concerned would crush land values over night. Easy money (cheap loans) allow speculation, and speculation is one of the primary drivers of land value.

What you call usury is also a government caused problem. It’s almost like 30+ year amortizations and ultra low interest rates… weren’t good for affordability. But now everyone but the government itself is the cause of this issue (in the government’s humble opinion). Blame immigrants, developers, AirBNB, investors… anyone but government! And if you must blame government, blame some other level of government!

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#65
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not actually intending to be sarcastic at all - I think the entire industry is morally bankrupt. I am a real estate developer (re-developer actually - specializing in heritage buildings and other complicated adaptive reuse projects), so I deal with planners, committees, official plans, zoning by-laws and the building code daily. It is painful to see indefensible requirements being thrust on projects - even those…

What is your opinion on the recent SCOTUS decisions declaring that forcing developers to pay for community improvements qualifies as a taking? Do you see this having a material effect on housing development?

I am Canadian so haven’t followed this decision, but I 100% support banning municipal governments from funding pet projects with fees on developers. It’s a major component of any project’s cost structure and absolutely flows through to the end buyer or renter. Landlords aren’t just absorbing these costs because the demand for housing exceeds the supply so house buyers/renters are price takers and ultimately shoulder the tax/fee.

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your opinion on the recent SCOTUS decisions declaring that forcing developers to pay for community improvements qualifies as a taking? Do you see this having a material effect on housing development?

Do you have a link to a summary? I missed it, if it ever made the front page news. IANAdeveloper… if a developer is otherwise within code/zoning, SCOTUS is probably correct. If they’re asking for zoning changes, there should be room for negotiation on nearby improvements.

> If they’re asking for zoning changes, there should be room for negotiation on nearby improvements.

The problem is that in many areas (of Canada at least), zoning bylaws are horribly outdated and inconsistent with municipal priorities. But municipalities don’t have an incentive to change them because if they allow things to be done “as of right” with modern zoning, they can’t shake down developers to fund their pet projects. So everything is a negotiation, which again adds uncertainty and cost.

Governments need to get out of the way and let developers build, or accept that they are the source of the housing scarcity.

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#67
post #4

> Planners do important work moulding how our cities grow. Lost me at the first sentence. Let me fix it: “Planners follow the flavour of the day while committing the same sins over and over, their failures recognizable only in retrospect once replaced with a new (also faulty) paradigm based on centralized planning. Despite their repeated failures, as an industry or field of study they show no contrition and continue…

What's your preferred solution? Laissez-faire development?

Yes. I think the canonical fear that there would be nuclear power plants next to daycares is nonsense and that private developers acting in their own interests would manage to identify market demand, experiment in fulfilling that demand, and the result would be the creation from the ground up of best practices for creating vibrant communities - until market preferences shift. And when those preferences shift I think private developers would be far quicker to adapt than central planners.

I find it wild how much the west abhors eastern communist central planning and then adopts it for the very fabric of its communities.

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the tax on "second homes" was a tax on landlording and speculation, not a tax on vacation homes. I think we might just be talking past each other here.

Why would taxing landlords reduce housing costs? It just increases housing costs for landlords, and in turn renters, as landlords become unwilling to pay for new construction until rents increase to cover the tax.

If landlords become unwilling to pay for new construction, that reduces the demand for new housing supply hitting the market. Which reduces its price and makes it more affordable to owner-occupants.

I don't know if it definitely works. But it's plausible. Tax what you want less of, right?

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#69
post #64
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The grossly inflated price comes from where though? I'd put it to you that a ban on usury where real estate was concerned would crush land values over night. Easy money (cheap loans) allow speculation, and speculation is one of the primary drivers of land value.

What you call usury is also a government caused problem. It’s almost like 30+ year amortizations and ultra low interest rates… weren’t good for affordability. But now everyone but the government itself is the cause of this issue (in the government’s humble opinion). Blame immigrants, developers, AirBNB, investors… anyone but government! And if you must blame government, blame some other level of government!

Tbh, I think you nailed it. Policy largely drives the system in a law avoiding society.

Re: Measuring the impact of zoning on housing in a city

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxing people who own multiple homes and taxing people who own apartment complexes are two completely different things and shouldn't be conflated.

You do realize that if someone can avoid the tax by renting it out then they'll just rent it out to a friend for a nominal amount to avoid the tax?

I'm talking about the size of the building. An actual apartment complex. I'm not even sure renting homes in general is a good idea. Let the market figure it out for someone who wants/can afford to own it.
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