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Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

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Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#61

Post by raverbashing »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #11

> If all goes to plan, Boeing will be able to finally certify its Starliner for human transportation and begin fulfilling the terms of its $4.2 billion NASA astronaut taxi contract. That contract, under the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, was awarded in 2014. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was also granted a contract under that program, for its Crew Dragon capsule, and has been transporting astronauts to and from the ISS since…

> Did SpaceX poach all of Boeing/Airbus' best people?

No

For one, SpaceX can't even hire non-citizens from what I understand

But yeah they probably poached some ULA, some LM, also from some other companies.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#62

Post by somenameforme »

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #47
somenameforme wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances of SpaceX failing in an irrecoverable way are zero. In some sort of crazy black swan event, a public offering of stock/equity would easily bring in vast sums for them. They even managed to get through COVID unscathed. The main danger of relying on a single provider is them taking advantage of that position and charging unreasonable rates, exactly like Boeing/Lockheed have been doing for decades (two compa…

Don’t say the chance is zero unless you have a mathematical proof or something. Would the odds be zero if they lose of a crew of astronauts?

Definitely. I'd actually go one step further and say that they will eventually lose a crew of astronauts. Perhaps to the ISS, but most definitely to Mars. The Falcon is the most reliable rocket ever made with some 335 successes for 2 failures contrasted against e.g. 133 and 2 for the Space Shuttle, but that failure rate is still extremely high relative to something like an airplane. And the overwhelming majority of all space flights are for "simple" repetitive tasks. As we increase the number of manned missions, as well as their complexity - the eventual loss of crewed missions is an absolute certainty. Something like 3% of all astronauts have died 'on the job' making it likely the single most dangerous profession in existence. Space remains extremely complex and dangerous, and it's likely to only become even more so in the decades to come as we increase the complexity of tasks carried out.

The reason NASA's failures were such a huge deal is because they shouldn't have happened. In both cases you had issues with the managerial layer ignoring the engineering layer, and moving ahead in high risk scenarios - that was particularly stupid in Challenger, where they also had a high profile civilian aboard. In SpaceX the managerial layer and the technical layer are largely the same thing, and they also have a system where any flight engineer can independently cancel a flight, for any reason, at his own discretion. So the chances of a flight moving forward with a predictable risk is quite low. So what will most likely happen when they lose a crewed flight is an investigation to ensure it was not caused by systemic errors, some effort to ensure that whatever did happen does not happen again, and then a return to flight.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#63

Post by blkhawk »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #37
AdamJacobMuller wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, it's not even remotely close. SpaceX had 98 launches in 2023. ULA, the closest competitor, had 3. For all of these others, considering that this article is from 2022, how many of them even still exist? Don't get me wrong, I hope SpaceX gets some stiff competition because I believe that competition breeds innovation. At the moment, however, I have no idea where that is going to come from or when it might…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Electron_launches ?

Maybe he meant "copetitors at the same scale"- At oleast thats how I read it.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#64

Post by perilunar »

AdamJacobMuller wrote: post #28
tw04 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think that’s really a fair assessment. Yes Space-X has had the most launches and gets the most press, but the US has a very healthy launch industry. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/top-us-launch-compan...

The thing is, it's not even remotely close. SpaceX had 98 launches in 2023. ULA, the closest competitor, had 3. For all of these others, considering that this article is from 2022, how many of them even still exist? Don't get me wrong, I hope SpaceX gets some stiff competition because I believe that competition breeds innovation. At the moment, however, I have no idea where that is going to come from or when it might…

> I hope SpaceX gets some stiff competition because I believe that competition breeds innovation

They are the competition and the innovation. I don't see them slacking off until they get to Mars at least.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#65

Post by Ringz »

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #47
somenameforme wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances of SpaceX failing in an irrecoverable way are zero. In some sort of crazy black swan event, a public offering of stock/equity would easily bring in vast sums for them. They even managed to get through COVID unscathed. The main danger of relying on a single provider is them taking advantage of that position and charging unreasonable rates, exactly like Boeing/Lockheed have been doing for decades (two compa…

Don’t say the chance is zero unless you have a mathematical proof or something. Would the odds be zero if they lose of a crew of astronauts?

This will certainly happen, just as it has already happened to the Russians and the Americans (several times). If the Chinese fly often enough, it will also happen to them. The only difference, of course, is that SpaceX is not a state institution, but a private one. This would certainly have fatal consequences for a share. But I believe that the social consequences can be managed. Which in turn means that if this happens quickly enough, the financial damage would be reversible.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#66

Post by arresin »

somenameforme wrote: post #46
ijustlovemath wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID was a single DARPA grant cycle in length. These companies move at glacial paces compared to the SaaS plays that the typical HN dev is familiar with. I'm guessing COVID never really threatened big programs like Starliner.

Your guess would be incorrect. Boeing felt they were in risk of collapse during COVID and immediately went to the government asking for a $60 billion bailout. The government wanted equity in exchange for this bailout, which Boeing didn't want to offer. So they ended up offering Federal Reserve facilitated 'Boeing bonds', and took in about $25 billion to stay afloat. [1] Amusingly a big part of the reason they ended u…

[flagged]

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#67

Post by thenaturalist »

somenameforme wrote: post #39
irjustin wrote: post #14

Glad this is happening. ULA is a good launch provider even if they are insanely expensive vs SpaceX. Yes, Elon is right, SpaceX did it cheaper, faster everything that you'd dream of. But, from a policy making standpoint, you always need to diversify at the expense of upfront money because the downsides risks are too high if you put all your eggs in one basket. That said - I do wish Boeing+ULA would get it's act toget…

The chances of SpaceX failing in an irrecoverable way are zero. In some sort of crazy black swan event, a public offering of stock/equity would easily bring in vast sums for them. They even managed to get through COVID unscathed. The main danger of relying on a single provider is them taking advantage of that position and charging unreasonable rates, exactly like Boeing/Lockheed have been doing for decades (two compa…

Most likely the same reason as for industry espionage by said countries: Conceptually designing a spacecraft and assuming certain physics properties is a long stretch away from actually manufacturing components with materials that stand up to the stress of a launch.

The “secret” to reliable components which can be produced at scale is very much not generally out there.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#68

Post by somenameforme »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #11

> If all goes to plan, Boeing will be able to finally certify its Starliner for human transportation and begin fulfilling the terms of its $4.2 billion NASA astronaut taxi contract. That contract, under the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, was awarded in 2014. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was also granted a contract under that program, for its Crew Dragon capsule, and has been transporting astronauts to and from the ISS since…

Look at a company after about 30 years and basically everybody that was there before, is gone. You keep the same name, the same brand, but all the people are entirely different. And people are, by far, the most important factor in the capabilities of a company. And often times people just aren't really replaceable. But you have to replace them, nonetheless, and so you just end up with something entirely different, even if it has the same name.

An even better example than Boeing is the Apollo program. The degree of competence, efficiency, and speed of that program all under NASA - is completely unlike anything we've ever seen anytime before, or since. JFK gave his 'to the Moon' speech in late 1962, when our grand achievement in space had been nothing beyond on briefly sending a man to orbit just a few months earlier. Less than 7 years later (!!), the first man would set foot on the Moon. The entire Apollo program cost $179 billion over 11 years (inflation adjusted), for a total of $16 billion per year. Their latest annual budget was $25 billion.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#69

Post by somenameforme »

raverbashing wrote: post #61
insane_dreamer wrote: post #11

> If all goes to plan, Boeing will be able to finally certify its Starliner for human transportation and begin fulfilling the terms of its $4.2 billion NASA astronaut taxi contract. That contract, under the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, was awarded in 2014. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was also granted a contract under that program, for its Crew Dragon capsule, and has been transporting astronauts to and from the ISS since…

> Did SpaceX poach all of Boeing/Airbus' best people? No For one, SpaceX can't even hire non-citizens from what I understand But yeah they probably poached some ULA, some LM, also from some other companies.

That's nothing to do with SpaceX specifically. The same applies to any American company building long range rockets. The government classifies this as weapons technology, and so it falls under ITAR - the International Traffic in Arms Regulations [1]. And hiring a foreign employee (or even a multi-national employee) is considered equivalent to a transfer of the underlying technology to that individual's home country or countries. In cases where this would be unlawful, which is most, hiring such persons would be unlawful.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Traffic_in_Arms_...

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#70

Post by andyjohnson0 »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #11

> If all goes to plan, Boeing will be able to finally certify its Starliner for human transportation and begin fulfilling the terms of its $4.2 billion NASA astronaut taxi contract. That contract, under the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, was awarded in 2014. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was also granted a contract under that program, for its Crew Dragon capsule, and has been transporting astronauts to and from the ISS since…

> How is it that SpaceX was able to accomplish the same thing in a fraction of the time, esp considering Boeing has been building aircraft for a century?

I have no particular insight into this subject, but an Ars article [1] from yesterday offers some speculation:

'"The difference between the two company’s cultures, design philosophies, and decision-making structures allowed SpaceX to excel in a fixed-price environment, where Boeing stumbled, even after receiving significantly more funding," said Lori Garver in an interview. She was deputy administrator of NASA from 2009 to 2013 during the formative years of the commercial crew program [...]'

and

'SpaceX was in its natural environment. Boeing's space division had never won a large fixed-price contract. Its leaders were used to operating in a cost-plus environment, in which Boeing could bill the government for all of its expenses and earn a fee. Cost overruns and delays were not the company's problem—they were NASA's. Now Boeing had to deliver a flyable spacecraft for a firm, fixed price. Boeing struggled to adjust to this environment.'

[1] https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/05/the-surprise-is-not-th...

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