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Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

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Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#61

It definitely is true that a design which could easily be created by hand is harder to create on a computer. The things where computers shine are actually managimg the complexity of a large and complicated systems. What I think the article leaves unspoken (but implied) is the "curse of tools", if you give a person tools he is likely to use them, even if they might not be applicable. Meaning that someone might decide…

The problem is that we are flooded with low-quality tools.

In general it is almost universally true of software nowadays. (Because change/progress leapfrogged any kind of teleological end-to-end design OR it's simply unmaintained, for example see any US government IT system. Or the ubiquitous extremely fragile corporate synthetic snowflake software that only runs on Windows XP SP1 + that 3 particular patches with that exact vc6.dll copied over from an old CD.)

A good quality information processing tool is designed for the process that it's meant to augment, ideally considering the original problem, and ultimately improving the process itself.

(Just digitizing a form likely leads to worse outcomes. Because those forms were designed for pen and paper. Screens and keyboard navigation requires different flows.

And the usual process is even worse, which consist of reinventing the wheel without context, as in speedrunning through all the problems of corporate politics and procurement, delivering some half-assed milestone-driven monstrosity, and forcing it on employees.

Of course, due to the aforementioned universal internal incompetence-fest and quarter-driven development budgets are bad, required time and effort is underestimated, learning curves are ignored, software gets set in stone too soon, and thus efficiency remains well below the expected, planned, possible, and hoped for.)

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#62

This analysis ignores the impact of competition. A car produced today is better (and more complex to make) than a car produced in 1980. Technological productivity isn’t just about improving the number of units or dollar value produced/hours input. Technology can make products more competitive without any increase in productivity by making them better, and, therefore more attractive, to customers even if unit cost or…

I don’t know. We need to define “better” first. My friend has 1970s F150 that still drives. “For how long will car run so that i don’t have to buy a new one” - that’s my definition of “better”. Will modern cars run 50 years from now?

The vehicles still running from the 1970's suffer from survivorship bias.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#63
post #61

It definitely is true that a design which could easily be created by hand is harder to create on a computer. The things where computers shine are actually managimg the complexity of a large and complicated systems. What I think the article leaves unspoken (but implied) is the "curse of tools", if you give a person tools he is likely to use them, even if they might not be applicable. Meaning that someone might decide…

The problem is that we are flooded with low-quality tools. In general it is almost universally true of software nowadays. (Because change/progress leapfrogged any kind of teleological end-to-end design OR it's simply unmaintained, for example see any US government IT system. Or the ubiquitous extremely fragile corporate synthetic snowflake software that only runs on Windows XP SP1 + that 3 particular patches with tha…

I think the main reason why we're flooded with low quality tool is due to the fact that with software you just copy-paste your prototype to production: unlike real world system where you build a prototype to show stuff and then have to industrialize it to get to production, for software this expensive (and crucial for quality) step is skipped entirely, and we are all stuck using prototypes…

This and seeing “code written” as the asset, instead of an artifact of “engineers increasing their mastery of the topic”, which is the true asset. But it's very closely related to the first point.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#64

I too have wondered why it take so long to make stuff in CAD, and why even suggesting that everything should fit together the first time is laughable at best. My theory is that computers can't do rough sketching. No CAD software suite (I think) can iterate and evalute rough ideas as fast and flexible as whiteboard pen in a meeting room can.

Mechanical CADs aren't designed for maintainability.

They are designed for expressivity first, and easiness of learning (for people with industry knowledge) second. And those are the two only goals.

Just try to adapt a mechanical design for a slightly different task. It's usually better to start from scratch.

(Anyway, that's an example of computers not being fully used. Going from the Solow paradox into "computers are bad" - like lots of people like to do, even here - is just stupid.)

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#65
I'm noticing a version of this as I pilot switching to a handwritten bullet journal for task management. I'll still sit down at the computer to brainstorm and organize the tasks of my projects, because being able to move list items around is a huge advantage, but when it actually comes to doing the darn things? It's been so much more effective to track them in the notebook. Planning out my daily schedule, figuring out what I can do in which timeframe, and making sure things don't fall through the cracks has worked so much better on paper.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#66
post #61

It definitely is true that a design which could easily be created by hand is harder to create on a computer. The things where computers shine are actually managimg the complexity of a large and complicated systems. What I think the article leaves unspoken (but implied) is the "curse of tools", if you give a person tools he is likely to use them, even if they might not be applicable. Meaning that someone might decide…

The problem is that we are flooded with low-quality tools. In general it is almost universally true of software nowadays. (Because change/progress leapfrogged any kind of teleological end-to-end design OR it's simply unmaintained, for example see any US government IT system. Or the ubiquitous extremely fragile corporate synthetic snowflake software that only runs on Windows XP SP1 + that 3 particular patches with tha…

Ideally you computerize away the process as much as possible.

A common failure mode of digital transformation processes is taking the old people process and computerizing it without revisiting the underlying process.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that bookkeeping overhead is fed into analysis and process mining to drive improvement, it might be a net gain. More often though, I see yet-another-spreadhseet applied as panacea, then it's forgotten in a few months and the process repeats over many years.

That is being fed into analysis and process mining. But nobody's doing the meta-analysis to look at the overhead of all the analysis tools, and see whether they are a net win.

Big Analysis doesn't want you to think about that.

That is one of the points of the article though: If you double productivity of the worker, but require a second worker to maintain the computer/do the analysis, have you really increased productivity? The answer is yes, but it's important to think about the shape of your work contact patch and how increased productivity increases value.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#68
The financial services industry has been revolutionized by computers, I have no idea why the author thought that would make a good example. Today’s stock markets & high frequency trading & online banks & international finance didn’t (and can’t) even exist without computers. The explosion of personal investing and day trading that has changed trading doesn’t exist without computers.

The entire computer industry itself has accelerated and grown because of computers, nowhere has he accounted for the “productivity” attributed to sales of computers. Fields I’ve worked in, video games and CG films, have absolutely increased efficiency with computers: for equal sized productions, the quality has gone up and the workforce needed has gone down over time consistently for decades.

The article has only one single and completely vague datapoint that includes anything from the last 30 years, that’s a major red flag. The invective portmanteaus and insult words are also a red flag and very weak argumentation. Is that supposed to make up for the complete lack of any relevant data? Not to mention some of the insults are worse than iffy by todays standards and don’t reflect well on the author.

Call me rather unconvinced, I guess.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#69
post #32
post #17

I think this article is drastically downplaying how dramatically more complicated designs and things are now than they were before. I don't believe it's computers that are to blame; I believe it's complexity nightmare problem. We have much tighter tolerances for everything now; everything "does more" and relies on my components. Back when we used pen and paper to create military vehicles it was mostly JUST about perf…

And what about financial services mentioned in the articles? Doubt that "everything does more" there.

Financial services went from a solid base of institutionalized racism (redlining) and casual prejudice based risk profiling when you went to the branch office ... to credit scores and financial engineering (2008 hello!) and introducing a thousand useless intermediaries, global 0-24 trading and investing, online Regulation A+ offerings (pre-IPO investing for nonaccredited investors), and online banking.

It's a lot more, of course, and there are even a few advantages.

Re: Computers Reduce Efficiency: Case Studies of the Solow Paradox (2023)

#70
post #68

The financial services industry has been revolutionized by computers, I have no idea why the author thought that would make a good example. Today’s stock markets & high frequency trading & online banks & international finance didn’t (and can’t) even exist without computers. The explosion of personal investing and day trading that has changed trading doesn’t exist without computers. The entire computer industry itself…

Agreed - I was very surprised to hear this. From Dividend.com:

"In the late 1960s, the volume of trading activity increased dramatically. With the drastic increase in volume, the NYSE had $4 billion in unprocessed transactions by 1968. To catch up, the exchange closed every Wednesday from June 12, 1968 to December 31, 1968. During this crisis, over 100 brokers failed due to the high volume of transaction that could not be processed."

Today, the NYSE processes trading volumes of 3-4 billion shares per day.

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