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In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

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Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#61

Post by amayne »

hatenberg wrote: post #31

Mindblowingly poor argumentation. a) No disentanglement of growth factors. Economic growth tied to expansion of consumer base is slowing for demographic reasons and more crucially, key markets in the knowledge economy are demand saturated - attention economy for example is not growing - it peaked in the pandemic and outside of policy intervention, there’s very limited growth potential. b) Failure to spell out the tra…

Original author here:

A. Some parts of the economy will grow. Some will shrink. My claim is that if you believe that AI will create new efficiencies and continue to do so, then overall economic growth will increase at a faster rate than ever.

B. Predicting what architecture could lead to this growth is beyond the scope of this article. The point was to say that if we keep getting increased efficiencies we'll get increased growth.

C. Job creation accelerates. Before I was hired at OpenAI in 2020, nobody on the planet had ever been hired as a prompt engineer. Now it's a career (at least for the time being.)

D. I'm assuming maximizing profit in the most near-sighted way possible. Same as it has ever been.

Is there a specific claim or argument that you disagree with?

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#62

Post by amayne »

skhunted wrote: post #17
nextworddev wrote: post #14

This is a really poorly argued article, not sure even where to start dismantling the author's arguments. (Almost feels like ChatGPT wrote this article). But let's start with this "If H&R Block could replace 90 percent of its seasonal employees with AI, it would see its profits skyrocket, given that labor is its biggest expense. Those profits would be reallocated elsewhere, that would increase the potential for even m…

Exactly. Rich people tend to horde their wealth and seek more. When they have an opportunity to extract wealth from others they do so. The increase in economic growth from this extraction is minimal in comparison to the amount extracted.

Original author here:

Yes. Rich people tend to re-invest their money and not throw it into a Scrooge McDuck vault to swim in. The re-investing is what helps create economic growth.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#63

Post by elicksaur »

amayne wrote: post #60
nextworddev wrote: post #14

This is a really poorly argued article, not sure even where to start dismantling the author's arguments. (Almost feels like ChatGPT wrote this article). But let's start with this "If H&R Block could replace 90 percent of its seasonal employees with AI, it would see its profits skyrocket, given that labor is its biggest expense. Those profits would be reallocated elsewhere, that would increase the potential for even m…

Original author here (not ChatGPT): My claim is that H&R Block would replace all their workers for more efficient AI if it was more profitable. Then they would re-invest that money in the most productive way they can – other companies, etc. This is the same strategy as Apple, Microsoft and other companies do with large amounts of cash. I don't claim H&R Block would be directly creating new jobs. They would try to max…

Why would H&R Block even exist? In this AI-maximalist version of the future, I could just spin up my copy of Llama 25, and it’d do my taxes in seconds. Pennies to the local utility board for the energy. Not much value circulating in the economy to be reinvested anywhere.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#64

Post by amayne »

elicksaur wrote: post #63
amayne wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Original author here (not ChatGPT): My claim is that H&R Block would replace all their workers for more efficient AI if it was more profitable. Then they would re-invest that money in the most productive way they can – other companies, etc. This is the same strategy as Apple, Microsoft and other companies do with large amounts of cash. I don't claim H&R Block would be directly creating new jobs. They would try to max…

Why would H&R Block even exist? In this AI-maximalist version of the future, I could just spin up my copy of Llama 25, and it’d do my taxes in seconds. Pennies to the local utility board for the energy. Not much value circulating in the economy to be reinvested anywhere.

Eventually that will probably be the case.

The future isn’t a fixed point. But before then H&R Block (or a company like them) will probably shift to AI. Then eventually your AI will mean you don’t even need them.

The disruptors will get disrupted.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#65

Post by hatenberg »

amayne wrote: post #61
hatenberg wrote: post #31

Mindblowingly poor argumentation. a) No disentanglement of growth factors. Economic growth tied to expansion of consumer base is slowing for demographic reasons and more crucially, key markets in the knowledge economy are demand saturated - attention economy for example is not growing - it peaked in the pandemic and outside of policy intervention, there’s very limited growth potential. b) Failure to spell out the tra…

Original author here: A. Some parts of the economy will grow. Some will shrink. My claim is that if you believe that AI will create new efficiencies and continue to do so, then overall economic growth will increase at a faster rate than ever. B. Predicting what architecture could lead to this growth is beyond the scope of this article. The point was to say that if we keep getting increased efficiencies we'll get incr…

Growth does not equal jobs and you probably know that.

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#66

Post by amayne »

hatenberg wrote: post #65
amayne wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Original author here: A. Some parts of the economy will grow. Some will shrink. My claim is that if you believe that AI will create new efficiencies and continue to do so, then overall economic growth will increase at a faster rate than ever. B. Predicting what architecture could lead to this growth is beyond the scope of this article. The point was to say that if we keep getting increased efficiencies we'll get incr…

Growth does not equal jobs and you probably know that.

Okun’s Law has held up pretty well over the last 60 years. Are you aware of any research that disputes that other than the degree of the coefficient?

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#67

Post by hatenberg »

amayne wrote: post #66
hatenberg wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth does not equal jobs and you probably know that.

Okun’s Law has held up pretty well over the last 60 years. Are you aware of any research that disputes that other than the degree of the coefficient?

I think my original reply you keep trying to ignore answers that one just fine

Re: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

#68

Post by amayne »

hatenberg wrote: post #67
amayne wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okun’s Law has held up pretty well over the last 60 years. Are you aware of any research that disputes that other than the degree of the coefficient?

I think my original reply you keep trying to ignore answers that one just fine

I may have missed something. What are saying specifically?

Okun's law shows a strong correlation between GDP and employment. Which runs counter to your previous claim – as I understand it (please forgive me if I'm not understanding it correctly.)

Did you make a comment somewhere else that I missed?

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