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Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

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Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#61

Post by mc32 »

NDizzle wrote: post #60
mc32 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably, but one big issue is conservatives are traditionally loath to support single unwed mothers or even single fathers. For them it was a moral issue, other times it was bigotry. If the government underwrote single mothers and fathers as much as we now provide in housing and food for some kinds of immigrants, in the past we would have seen a healthier population. They dug that hole. That is to Say Bernie of the…

Don't reward single parents... reward families staying together and raising their kids how they want to, as decided by each individual family. There is a drastic statistical difference between those raised in family units vs single parent households... It's even significantly better to have grandparents (note the plural) raise a kid than a single parent.

It's not so much rewarding the unwed parents but supporting their children -it could have been community driven with grandparental involvement and so on, however, tat would likely be unpalatable for the small government minded --this could have been pushed off to other social institutions like churches --so long as one does not incentivize the wrong thing.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#62

Post by [deleted] »

gspencley wrote: post #38
ddorian43 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially with real estate. Either rent indefinetily by paying their pension , buy the house for 2x-3x+ the monthly rent so you pay their pension in lump sum, or go 1+ hour away from city(also high cost in terms of time etc). The politicians are also older people who can't empathize. The young also don't vote. And if you do buy high now, who are you gonna sell even higher when you retire, since there are so few new…

> The young also don't vote. This might change, fast. I have two daughters who are in their early 20s. My oldest daughter, 24, has dreamed of buying a home and starting a family with her high school sweetheart of 10 years and her dream has been completely shattered. The saddest part is, this isn't even just about buying a home. She's not going to start a family until they are no longer living with us and have a house…

[deleted]

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#63

Post by ben_w »

ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

> buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting.

While there are certainly problems here, higher interest rates drive demand down and lower prices, while lower interest rates drive up demand and raise prices.

Investors tend to look for the best return on investment, the number I often see given is 5%/year. The rent I collect is close to that fraction of the market value of the apartment I own in the UK.

The choice between "rent" and "mortgage" is where the cost of the two is about equal in the first year, which is always a bit unfair on first-time purchasers as (1) they're generally younger and thus earning less money, and (2) the impact of interest payments is always front-loaded towards the beginning of the repayment period.

This in turn means that there's a temptation for very long repayment periods to make it seem easier: in a world of genuinely 0% interest mortgages, paying off a ¤600k over 40 years is clearly easier than paying it off over 20, and lower rates asymptotically approach this.

Conversely, when the interest rate is high enough that (even without paying off the capital and regardless of repayment period) it approximates the rental market rate of the property, this drives down demand. To see why, go back to that previous example of a ¤600k (sale price) property: if the landlord can ask for ¤2.5k/month rent, and the interest rate on a mortgage is 5% AER, then the cost to service the interest without paying capital is the same as you get from the rent — which means investors will ask "why should I buy this?" and renters will ask "why would I want that kind of mortgage?", forcing down the asking prices because the only people still interested are people who can do it without borrowing any money.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#64

Post by bluetomcat »

karaterobot wrote: post #20

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to…

I don't know what the author of the article is drinking. Me and most of my relatives are in a significantly worse financial position since 2020. Wage growth has hardly matched the wild pace of inflation. Saving money is much harder. Decent jobs are hard to come by. It feels like an erosion of the middle class.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#65

Post by ravenstine »

forgotmyinfo wrote: post #45

Probably! It's just unfortunate that we don't have any sort of New Deal, good jazz clubs, or Art Deco to make it suck less.

In fairness, there are good jazz clubs in many major cities. People can choose to go to these kinds of clubs instead of hang around at home if they really want to. They do exist.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#66

Post by bartvk »

bluetomcat wrote: post #64
karaterobot wrote: post #20

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to…

I don't know what the author of the article is drinking. Me and most of my relatives are in a significantly worse financial position since 2020. Wage growth has hardly matched the wild pace of inflation. Saving money is much harder. Decent jobs are hard to come by. It feels like an erosion of the middle class.

> I don't know what the author of the article is drinking

I think that's a bit harsh. The author runs a successful podcast, for a number of years now. I value his opinion, he usually backs up his opinion with numbers. I do sympathize with you, in the sense that I'm also earning less than I used to.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#67

Post by gspencley »

TimPC wrote: post #50
gspencley wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The young also don't vote. This might change, fast. I have two daughters who are in their early 20s. My oldest daughter, 24, has dreamed of buying a home and starting a family with her high school sweetheart of 10 years and her dream has been completely shattered. The saddest part is, this isn't even just about buying a home. She's not going to start a family until they are no longer living with us and have a house…

Do the young even have someone to vote for in Canada though? Only the PPC wants to stop immigration and build housing but they are a fringe party unlikely to get a single seat rather than run the country. The BQ is a decent option in Quebec, but in the rest of Canada pretty much any party that has seats currently is far too pro-immigration and far too pro-Boomer to get anything done on house prices. PP is very good a…

I agree. And it will be interesting to see how the PPC performs (love them or hate them) because, as you said, the mainstream parties look an awful lot alike to people who are not firmly entrenched in a partisan position (i.e: many young people who are still figuring things out).

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#68

Post by jareklupinski »

mseepgood wrote: post #55
karaterobot wrote: post #20

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to…

> Otherwise, this sounds a little like a kind of numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other. Even if history repeats in cycles for some astrological reason, why would it repeat in a 100 years cycle? Why not a 67 years cycle?

since we 'invented' numbers and assigned 'meaning' to them, it makes more 'sense' to tack experiences to frequencies/periods that are easy to represent and seem to mean more than they do by virtue of being 'right at the edge'

see: why everything costs x.99 units

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#69

Post by beej71 »

bluetomcat wrote: post #64
karaterobot wrote: post #20

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to…

I don't know what the author of the article is drinking. Me and most of my relatives are in a significantly worse financial position since 2020. Wage growth has hardly matched the wild pace of inflation. Saving money is much harder. Decent jobs are hard to come by. It feels like an erosion of the middle class.

The author does point out that there was significant wealth inequality in the 1920s.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#70

Post by anthonypasq »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #32
ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

I'd rather be a young person in the 2020's than a young person in the 1920's. That group was called the "greatest generation" for a reason, and it wasn't because they had it easy.

what wonderful consolation, we might have it better than people 100 years ago. I sure am glad the system is working.
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