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Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

scottsantens.com

61–70 of 192 posts

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#61
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US handed out $1.8 trillion to individuals and families and $1.7 trillion to businesses during COVID. And then a few years later began experiencing the highest inflation rate in 40 years. And that wasn't even enough money for anyone to live on. I think this needs to be solved before UBI has any chance of working.

You are attributing to federal fiscal policy what was caused by supply chain dysfunction, housing inventory shortages, and corporate profits. https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/eco... > Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. Evidence suggests that supply chain pressures pushed up the co…

The whole "corporate profiteering drove inflation" narrative is/was entirely driven by click farming economically distressed people. It never was the case and even mild understanding of economics/finance quickly unravels the narrative.

Inflation was driven primarily by low interest rates, very generous financial support/relief(rent moratorium, student loan pause, bolstered and extended unemployment), and the ability for most white collar workers to keep on working from home.

Supply chain issues didn't help, but it's not even clear if 2019 supply chains would have been able to keep up with the insane consumer demand of 2021.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t really have any horse in the race but the experiments I’ve seen are hardly universal nor sufficiently guaranteed. It’s basically just a one time payment spread over some period, so it’s not surprising people would use money they know won’t be around forever for essentials. On the other hand it would be nice to know what happened with all of the Covid checks since that also was given to many, but again hardly…

Strictly economic theoretical speaking, inflation wouldn't happen if the money isn't "new" money, but instead is fully reallocated money. A likely picture would be less money going into assets (where wealthy people money tends to end up) and more money going into consumables (where poor people money tends to end up). However the money pile should stay the same all else being equal.

Money from the state does come from the money printer these days thought.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#63
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US handed out $1.8 trillion to individuals and families and $1.7 trillion to businesses during COVID. And then a few years later began experiencing the highest inflation rate in 40 years. And that wasn't even enough money for anyone to live on. I think this needs to be solved before UBI has any chance of working.

It's mainly wealth distribution. The top percent owns too much while the bottom 80% owns too little. There won't be inflation if you take money from the top and give it to the bottom. The total amount of money stays the same.

When you say the wealthy own too much, you mean they own productive assets. They run companies. Sure there are some that just have a pile of cash sitting in a vault but that's rare.

So if you take away their wealth you're transferring ownership and control from one group of people (who have managed and grown that productive asset) to another (randomly chosen). Naturally you would expect the productive assets to stop being so productive over time, kind of like what happens when a state expropriates businesses as if there is some magic in the walls of the building that generate value

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#64
The labor 'market' is totally asymetric, since workers are forced to work ... or starve, whereas companies can and do stop hiring, and even fire people, sometimes in a cynical move to suppress wages (witness the current tech scene).

UBI would turn it into a real, consensual market.

No doubt people benefiting from the status quo do not want change.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically utopians have been far more dangerous.

There's a lot of leeway between advocating for gradual, realistic change and reaching for an impossible utopia.

I would argue UBI is in the latter category.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#66
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If you live in a 1st world country, your country believes in the coercive appropriation of other's property. You already participate in that appropriation. The coercive appropriation is called taxation. You can choose to not pay, but you'll be incarcerated. You cannot choose where your monies go, or what they go for. You're already a participant, and you don't seem to realize it. Also, eleemosynary... really? Means c…

Taxation to address collective action problems like the military or the legal system is not charity. This is captured in the US Constitution which provides for the "General Welfare" not welfare for individual citizens.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strictly economic theoretical speaking, inflation wouldn't happen if the money isn't "new" money, but instead is fully reallocated money. A likely picture would be less money going into assets (where wealthy people money tends to end up) and more money going into consumables (where poor people money tends to end up). However the money pile should stay the same all else being equal.

Money from the state does come from the money printer these days thought.

“Can”, not “does”. Don’t be disingenuous.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#68

UBI's critics expected these programs to have terrible outcomes, where recipients would spend their money on trivialities (or worse: drugs). Instead, what we find is that UBI recipients either spend it on essentials, stuff for their kids children or paying down debt.

As a critic of UBI, that's not what I expect at all. I expect all of these tests to have wonderful outcomes where people who get their share are able to make good choices, invest in their future, and become better off than their neighbors. I expect that this will always be the case for any test done with UBI, because I understand that these tests are modelling a situation fundamentally different from what would happen if the basic income granted were actually universal - publicly known and guaranteed by the government.

In the test, wealth is coming from outside the system to individual economic agents within it. Of course those agents become better off than others who are not granted this wealth. But a government does not create wealth by fiat; they take it through taxation to distribute and spend according to priorities (ideally) set through popular decisions. They cannot make the group as a whole objectively richer - schemes to try anyway through blanket money printing result in unwanted inflation.

What I would actually expect to happen, should UBI somehow be implemented, is an immediate capture of the extra wealth by the capital-owning class. It won't be used by the currently homeless to afford homes, because the day after it's announced, rent prices will shoot up by about 70% of the amount. You will still need a job to afford a place to live. Likewise all basic goods; food, fuel, education, all their prices will rise to consume the greater discretionary income that people have. You can't win the Red Queen's race. Speeding everyone up the same amount doesn't change their relative positioning.

True, it would make debts suddenly worth a lot less. The government could also choose to do so by fiat, but they are very unlikely to. It's not difficult to imagine why.

Worse, the expense of doing this - it would cost more than the federal budget in the USA, assuming everyone is given a modest $2,000 monthly - means that taxes would have to rise, making it harder for people to actually rise in economic status through productive labor. I can see, assuming that this state of being continues long-term (which I personally doubt it would), a permanent divide appearing in the economic strata in the population over this, between people lucky enough to own property at the time the UBI was implemented and those who weren't.

Despite the woe about wealth mobility that already exists (at the moment, people in the bottom quintile economically have a 40-60% chance to escape it[0]), it can always get worse. Ideas to fix it should not be judged based solely on their intent. UBI is a solution that is conceptually simple (there are poor people? just give them money!), politically easy (who doesn't like free money?), and absolutely rife with harmful second order effects. People change their behavior according to incentives - this is true both of the poor who historically have been the targeted beneficiaries of UBI tests, and the landlords and corporations that will change their policies to optimally harvest a new bounty if these policies were ever implemented more widely.

[0]: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/stuck-on-the-ladder-wealt...

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#69

[flagged]

Things look pretty dystopian as it stands, and if concentration of wealth continues, we'll speed down that dark road even faster. If not UBI, what other solution is there? Especially as automation sweeps through cognitive work?

We need to be radically cutting immigration now along with collapsing birth rates such that worker supply and worker demand reach equilibrium.

Re: Billionaire-Fueled Lobbying Group Behind the State Bills to Ban UBI Experiments

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You are attributing to federal fiscal policy what was caused by supply chain dysfunction, housing inventory shortages, and corporate profits. Would you be shocked to learn the inflation had a number of causes, including the vast COVID stimulus? I mean, your quote above attributes 60%, and that supply chain issues resolving "contributed" to inflation easing. I'm for UBI if we can figure out how to implement it. We'v…

Not shocked if its true, asking you to validate the assertion with data. I brought citations, I will wait for yours. > Otherwise, generic extreme argument: give everyone a billion and we all win. No reasonable person takes this argument seriously. The discussion is "will providing for everyone's basic needs through UBI cause inflation?"

>asking you to validate the assertion with data. I brought citations, I will wait for yours.

Try any economics textbook, and common sense. I couldn't care less what you believe. This stuff has been written about for 100 years, currency is susceptible to the laws of supply and demand like any other commodity; over supply affects prices.

>No reasonable person takes this argument seriously.

Oh, really? What's the right amount we should give to people then? Please bring data.

You sound like the MMT folks, who endlessly told us printing money didn't matter. Until it did. Then "real MMT has never been tried!"

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