Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#61

Post by pgeorgi » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 1:59 PM UTC

Xunjin wrote: post #51

zelphirkalt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad governments that actively hinder progress on many fronts (just look for example at Wissing as a transport minister being completely anti train service, destroying infrastructure for the people, while dancing to the tune of car manufacturers), lining their own pockets, corruption, unfettered lobbyism and bad policies for education system added their weight to this. A country can only take so much incapability and…

Isn't the German policy tracking down NeoNazis on AfD? IIRC there is even a movement on closing down a specific party. I remember hearing a news about it. Btw I love DW news, such a great channel.

There were some calls to shut down AfD, but that's probably too difficult (and the process is difficult for good reasons!), and having them "certified by the courts that they're not extremist enough to be closed down" might be just the advertisement they seek.

The current target seems to be the "Junge Alternative", the AfD's youth organization. Since that's just an association and not a party, it's an easier target. Also, the party youth organizations tend to be more radical than their "grown-up" counterparts, so it's probably relatively simple to make a case there.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#62

Post by snapplebobapple » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 2:12 PM UTC

JKCalhoun wrote: post #46

jackcosgrove wrote: post #19

Germany's strategy has been to offer higher quality products at a huge markup. Just using the auto industry as an example, in the past twenty years the difference in quality between a mass market vehicle and a luxury vehicle has compressed. Competing on quality seems to be getting harder. The Anglophone economies, whose shift to services away from manufacturing has been ballyhooed and decried in many quarters, embrac…

I agree that we need to keep what you call here mid-skill jobs. Too often I see people say to the disappearance of manual labor jobs: good, retrain people to use computers. I have slowly come to the belief that there are some people for whom working with their hands is the only kind of sane work they can do. You can call them blue-collar, or working class (these are the people incidentally that raised me, the people…

I think you and the op are both missing that the vast majority of those mid skilled jobs still exist, they just exist in countries whose labor costs are drastically lower. When you realize that, you then realize that betting that your workers will be able to maintain a quality gap large enough to justify keeping them around is extremely questionable over the medium to long term because you are assuming some combination of there being a difference in your populations at a macro level (almost certainly wrong), that you will be able to innovate quality/other differentiating characteristics fast enough to maintain a large gap (almost certainly wrong, it's way harder to come up with something new vs copying the practices that exist already, especially when it is in the interest of the company in control of those practice to offshore for more profit), or your government will always be better in the specific subset of ways that maintains an advantage (better infrastructure, better regulation, etc. Also wrong when environmental regulation is at odds with profits and infrastructure only needs to be good between the factory and the port).

The better strategy is what everyone else has been doing, letting the third world catch up in labor costs for a few generations while ensuring you maintain the design capability. This does more than any ngo ever to decrease poverty and suffering, it will mean at some point in the future your labor won't be so starkly uncompetitive so eventually you can bring some manufacturing back, and it makes it less likely that the best and brightest arent' wasted on subsistence farming/made less due to childhood malnutrition in the third world, which should help us innovate faster in the future.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#63

Post by throwaway4good » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 2:16 PM UTC

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #41

throwaway4good wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the problem is that German energy is expensive compared to other countries. On top of that you have regulation and lack of subsidies making other places more attractive to produce in ie. the US, Eastern Europe or China.

Correct. BASF is investing heavily in China. Nothing tells you more about this problem than the most German of companies moving to China. BASF's largest plant in Germany was hooked up directly to Russian gas. Russian gas is now going to China. So are BASF. I don't think regulation or subsidies are to blame either. Eastern Europe is receiving heavy investment because they have costs for workers under control and can p…

While the media focuses on China, Germany invests much more in the US. And if you summarize the investment in eastern europe, it is probably larger as well.

The current government has famously green policies: Shutting down nuclear plants and perhaps have a willingness to accept heavy industry leaving Germany. It is however a very unpopular government so I don't know if those policies will hold long term.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#64

Post by jillesvangurp » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 2:18 PM UTC

mamonster wrote: post #56

jillesvangurp wrote: post #52

I've lived in Berlin for fifteen years now. My view is very different from what this article is portraying. Germany definitely has issues. Some of them are short term issues. Some of them self inflicted. And others have been issues for a long time. But all of these are fixable. All it takes is change. Change is hard for Germans but if you look at their history, you see that that wasn't always the case. They are hard…

So the green bright future is in 10 years and it will take a lot of hard work to get there? If that's the path to success, AfD will be at 50% within 2 years.

I'm Dutch. Just look across the border at what will happen. We're having lots of fun with our dearly beloved Geert Wilders trying to get a government together and having to suddenly deal with the notion that 100% percent of his party program is a combination of impractical, impossible, or in conflict with the constitution, international treaties, and what his own voters actually want. Which of course is a hot topic of debate and kind of hard to pin down to more than "I don't like X". Where X is foreigners, people that look a bit funny, the weather, or whatever else they saw on TV. Vaguely disgruntled and angry is the dominating sentiment.

He may or may not get a government together. But if he does, it will likely be short lived and implode under its own madness. This is not actually the first time this is happening in my country. The last time was a wild ride of ludicrously incompetent people doing silly things until the whole thing ended. This round looks like it's going to be a repeat of that. Very similar to the Trump presidency, actually.

The AFD may very well end up in power at some point but it will probably be their undoing. Kind of a necessary evil and it will definitely shake a few things up if it happens. But a bit of short lived shock therapy like that might actually not be that bad for Germany. Either way, I don't see them getting anywhere near 50%.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#65

Post by skippyboxedhero » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 3:01 PM UTC

tormeh wrote: post #54

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demographics aren't the issue. Japan has had relatively bad aging, per capita growth for working-age population since 1990 is equal to the US. Indeed, the issue of demographics has been a massive problem because politicians repeat the mantra: population cannot age, we must mass import. Okay...but most high productivity people aren't going to Germany (and to be clear, this has been the case in France, the UK, many oth…

Is Japan actually in a better place? GDP per capita is worse, work hours are longer, debt is much higher, birth rates are lower. Citation needed.

You have asked for a citation whilst listing a bunch of things that are quantifiable but which may or may not matter depending on your PoV...I notice you didn't mention crime...why is that it? Lack of citations?

Asking for citations does not mean that the things you cite are relevant or useful.

GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US. Yes, this is good. Work hours are longer...than what? They are shorter than the US and most of Europe by OECD data...where are your citations? Debt is higher...than what? Personal rates of debt are lower, and they have a huge net foreign asset position...did you cite something without understanding what it meant? Birth rates are lower...yes, why is this bad? It hasn't impacted GDP per capita...so why is it bad? Again, is this something you are "citing" without understanding?

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#66

Post by imtringued » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 3:07 PM UTC

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #5

The article lists a lot of things going bad for Germany. But was there some underlying reason? Like demographics, shrinking population? Or is it just the obvious , Russian gas, rising Energy costs, now their prices are too high, so exports are down.

Killing the domestic economy while favouring the export surplus economy.

People don't seem to understand that Germany's export strategy is fueled by debt. It looks fine from the perspective of Germany alone, but this strategy has resulted in an overall increase in debt in the entire euro area and Germans are hypocritical enough to think that they are the heroes saving the EU when the situation is the exact opposite. Euro area debt is bailing out the German export economy.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#67

Post by hokkos » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 3:08 PM UTC

konschubert wrote: post #10

People are blaming energy prices but I don’t understand: As far as I can tell, wholesale prices for both gas and electricity are lower than before the start of the war.

Prices did got down but still not pre mid-2021 levels, and a lot of industries got close down during the high prices, also Biden plan to limit GNL export is not a good sign for Europe now that cheap russian gas is gone. Also electricity wholesale prices don't tell all, you then have to pay those renewable CfD and premiums somewhere.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#68

Post by mamonster » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 3:21 PM UTC

jillesvangurp wrote: post #64

mamonster wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the green bright future is in 10 years and it will take a lot of hard work to get there? If that's the path to success, AfD will be at 50% within 2 years.

I'm Dutch. Just look across the border at what will happen. We're having lots of fun with our dearly beloved Geert Wilders trying to get a government together and having to suddenly deal with the notion that 100% percent of his party program is a combination of impractical, impossible, or in conflict with the constitution, international treaties, and what his own voters actually want. Which of course is a hot topic o…

I would agree with you but there is a key difference in Germany: CDU/SPD boomers will never defuse the AfD by letting them into power because they don't think like that. They will use all the tools at their disposal (Bundesverfassungschutz, punishing secessionists like Maassen, etc) to prevent AfD from ever getting into government, which will only make them more powerful.

You might have a different idea of AfD's strategy, but IMO they are playing a very explosive game: They are basically trying to force some "unelected" organ to ban them, and on the basis of that get a boost and then get into power on a mandate of "everything should be democractic", which would allow them to dismantle any institutions that don't work with elections and use referendums to go around any Rechtsstaat considerations

CDU/SPD could easily let them into government, stonewall them using the civil service for like 4 years and kill the party, but they are too dumb for that.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#69

Post by qznc » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 5:04 PM UTC

konschubert wrote: post #20

qznc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, i think all ofthese are factors. A particularly annoying one is the debt break (Schuldenbremse) Germany introduced a few years ago. It prevents many investments currently. This one could be fixed relatively quickly though.

It does not prevent investments by industry at all.

I agree, but I have no clue how to fix that. Many industries should take on more debt but somehow they don’t. Maybe they lack ideas what to do with the money?

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#70

Post by nwellnhof » Sat, Feb 10, 2024, 7:07 PM UTC

jillesvangurp wrote: post #52

I've lived in Berlin for fifteen years now. My view is very different from what this article is portraying. Germany definitely has issues. Some of them are short term issues. Some of them self inflicted. And others have been issues for a long time. But all of these are fixable. All it takes is change. Change is hard for Germans but if you look at their history, you see that that wasn't always the case. They are hard…

> They are hard workers

Where does this cliché come from? Germans work less than any other country on the planet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...