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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#61

Post by pixl97 »

gumballindie wrote: post #36
kiba wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't know what will be at the end of this. It seems that the OpenAI folks are endlessly pursuing the technology of AGI without actually working on making sure that AGI benefit "all of humanity." They haven't even articulate what it means to benefit all of humanity.

OpenAI is a cult. I dont quite understand why they are given so much airtime other than wanting to depress tech wages and drive traffic. Their products dont work as advertised and are built on theft.

Everyones products/lives are built on theft. I mean you paid for that alphabet right, and understanding those forces of physics?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#62

Post by citizenpaul »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

>physically abled home owner

I think you nailed part of the problem here. For no less that 30% of the population the first step in the googles would be. Wear googles and go to gym for at least 6 months, along with diet guidance. "You are about to eat a snickers bar, this will delay your air conditioner repair by 16hrs"

I once tried to show a white collar friend how to spray for bugs himself, he needed a break after hand pumping the chemical sprayer. Im pretty sure in the end he just paid someone anyway.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#63

Post by xbmcuser »

feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

It has supposedly been coming for the last 20 years reality is the cat is out of the bag and it won't be stuffed back in.

Even at today levels of AI a very large amount of work can be optimized if the domain experts knew how to use the ai tools. As people become more used to using them I don't see an ai winter coming.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#64

Post by pixl97 »

feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

Headline: "AI Winter shouted from the rooftops for the millionth time this year, meanwhile for the weather showing balmy 85 degree temperatures for the next few years"

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#65

Post by 1970-01-01 »

matt_heimer wrote: post #30
idopmstuff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

That sounds more expensive than paying a tradesman, except you're on the hook for buying or renting all the tools, and when something needs four or more hands, can you email support and have them upload an assistant AGI to carry around the heavy materials?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#66

Post by bryanlarsen »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

If you stuck an AGI inside a Boston Dynamics robot and trained it on a trade I suspect it could replace much of that trade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e1_QhJ1EhQ

Not an easy problem, but the assumption is that AGI makes solving such problems tractable.

Japan has been working on healthcare robots for decades.

I think the key word is that the robots "could" replace 95% of economically valuable work, not that they will. Using an example from today: we can and have replaced fast food order takers with kiosks, but there are still a lot of people employed as fast food order takers because that's what customers prefer.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#67

Post by spywaregorilla »

matt_heimer wrote: post #59
spywaregorilla wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One good robot arm that a below minimum wage gig worker carries around. edit: he can also turn the crank to keep it powered maybe

Or the minimum wage gig worker is the robot. If we ever get neural interfaces working well maybe the AGI could control our motor functions. Maybe not full control, I don't think most people would be comfortable with that but think of shooting a gun. If the worker points the gun in the right general direction and the AGI add some fine tuning to turn them into an expert marksman...what army wouldn't turn all their cons…

robot arm is cheaper

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#68

Post by gumballindie »

pixl97 wrote: post #61
gumballindie wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI is a cult. I dont quite understand why they are given so much airtime other than wanting to depress tech wages and drive traffic. Their products dont work as advertised and are built on theft.

Everyones products/lives are built on theft. I mean you paid for that alphabet right, and understanding those forces of physics?

This argument is so 2023.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#69

Post by joshspankit »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #66
vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

If you stuck an AGI inside a Boston Dynamics robot and trained it on a trade I suspect it could replace much of that trade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e1_QhJ1EhQ Not an easy problem, but the assumption is that AGI makes solving such problems tractable. Japan has been working on healthcare robots for decades. I think the key word is that the robots "could" replace 95% of economically valuable work, not that they…

Yes, but...

There are unknown issues down that road. Given 1000 years AI could probably replace all work, but I think we’re all on the same page of “could AI replace 95% of work within a timespan that’s meaningful to people alive today?”, and in that term the realization of an AI-powered machine doing all manual labour (even an AGI one) still has a too many unknowns for a meaningful answer.

We were “going to have flying cars in X” for a long time, but it turned out that building a flying car was not actually the problem that needed to be solved in order to make them viable.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#70

Post by echelon »

ChatGTP wrote: post #47
echelon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disney and Pixar animation are about to get 10,000x - 100,000x cheaper and accessible to nearly anyone. When applied to the correct domains, AI is incredible.

What good does that do though ? It’ll wipe out entire careers so you can have what ? Cheap cartons ? Not disagreeing, just curious what makes you think this is so incredible ? Did you not have enough to watch before ?

I want to make. Due to opportunity cost, capital cost, personnel cost - I could never be in that seat.

This will empower fan fiction authors, web comic authors, indie creators, et al. to all reach new heights that they couldn't before.

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