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Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

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Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#61
post #4

He was heavily mentioning drones in the Foreign Affairs piece [1] he wrote in the spring of 2023: "Innovation Power - Why Technology Will Define the Future of Geopolitics" > Drones offer distinct advantages over traditional weapons: they are smaller and cheaper, offer unmatched surveillance capabilities, and reduce soldiers’ risk exposure. Marines in urban warfare, for example, could be accompanied by microdrones tha…

There are so many assumptions packed in that post it feels weird to try to unpack them; eg, the implication the "local" Ukrainian equipment would be by default inferior to Russian equipment, which doesn't seem obvious at all to me. But empirically speaking, the idea that Russian equipment will be better than OTAN equipment because of their combat experience is pretty bold considering the current domination of OTAN eq…

current domination of OTAN equipment in the Ukraine-Russia war

Back in the real world:

Hangar queens: http://archive.today/2024.01.09-023929/https://www.spiegel.d...

Barrel trouble: https://x.com/DcDxii/status/1731800411965645092

Death traps: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMX-10_RC#Operational_history

And so on. If anything this war is a vindication of the Soviet approach.

Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#62

After watching 1000's of Ukrainian drone videos, it's absolutely terrifying for the foot soldier these days. You almost stand zero chance and as for vehicles, it can seriously impact their usefulness. APC's,Tanks become scrap metal from a $500 drone carrying a shaped charge. The US has always depended on air superiority to fight its wars, they are completely unprepared for what facing an enemy with superior air defen…

Israel has made some progress in shooting down drones with lasers (see Drone Dome) as well as mortar bombs and artillery shells (see Iron Beam) and IIUC both systems are mobile. Given that we don't hear about them being used right now in either Israel or Ukraine I assume they aren't actually ready for deployment, but maybe in a few years?

Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#63
post #47
post #4

He was heavily mentioning drones in the Foreign Affairs piece [1] he wrote in the spring of 2023: "Innovation Power - Why Technology Will Define the Future of Geopolitics" > Drones offer distinct advantages over traditional weapons: they are smaller and cheaper, offer unmatched surveillance capabilities, and reduce soldiers’ risk exposure. Marines in urban warfare, for example, could be accompanied by microdrones tha…

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Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are so many assumptions packed in that post it feels weird to try to unpack them; eg, the implication the "local" Ukrainian equipment would be by default inferior to Russian equipment, which doesn't seem obvious at all to me. But empirically speaking, the idea that Russian equipment will be better than OTAN equipment because of their combat experience is pretty bold considering the current domination of OTAN eq…

> the current domination of OTAN equipment in the Ukraine-Russia war Exactly which OTAN/NATO equipment is "dominating" in that conflict?

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Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#65

I worked for a few years in defense and it was the most meaningful work of my career so far but it is painfully slow and entrenched. There is massive opportunity for innovation. I hope he can move the needle- he was on the Defense Innovation Board a while back so he knows.

I'm curious as to what you found meaningful working for the defence industry ? Genuine question. I am asking because to me it does not seem like "defence" whatsoever.

Things that I have worked on will save lives in a future conflict. Being former military, I'd like my buddies to make it home safe.

Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#66
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My take on this is that lacking direct combat experience everything the Americans (and the West more generally) will come up with in terms of drones will be hugely inferior to whatever the Russians are now building America doesn't lack direct combat experience with drone warfare, on either the side using drones or the side being targeted by drones.

Could you explain? I think we’re having a different discussion than the million dollar predator drones that shot missiles at western Asia from a mile up. And to say that defending against ISIS/Houthi/Etc. drones is in any way similar to the experience Ukraine and Russia are getting seems wrong. But I’m probably misunderstanding? In general I’m not 100% convinced by “they use drones so they’re better with them” but it…

America doesn’t lack combat experience with small drones.

> The fighting in Ukraine has provided "reinforcement and validation" of what US troops have learned about drones in the Middle East, Gainey said at the conference, echoing Army leaders who say the drone war in Ukraine is influencing their planning — particularly for how to counter the one-way attack drones that Russia has used widely.

> "In some cases, yes, what we're sending to Ukraine are also going to fit into our future plans," Douglas Bush, the assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology, said at a press conference in early August.

Further:

> "There's no one silver bullet. There's no one system that we can call out and say, 'This is a system that's going to defeat every threat,'" Parent told Insider.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-fighting-dron...

The truth is that there is no “drone warfare” only a new class of military tools that resemble drones and are built on drone-esque platforms. They come on the sea, they come by land and they come by air, and they can be millions of dollars or 3500-5000 bucks (which is utterly nothing for US military spending) and built of cardboard like this one:

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2023/09/13/cardboard-drone-v...

They are using Ukraine as a providing ground for anti-drone technology for sure as there have been many reports of directed energy weapons in Ukraine and Israel as of late.

There are also sea-based systems:

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-drone-sea-china-attack-laser...

So definitely we are in the drone warfare period and those lessons are getting learned. Have been since 2013 to 2016 when we had initial reports of drones on the battlefield and reactions in military planning discussions.

With regards to the idea, that experience is the sole predictor of Battlefield success, I would urge the original poster of that comment to read a few history books.

Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#67
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My take on this is that lacking direct combat experience everything the Americans (and the West more generally) will come up with in terms of drones will be hugely inferior to whatever the Russians are now building America doesn't lack direct combat experience with drone warfare, on either the side using drones or the side being targeted by drones.

Could you explain? I think we’re having a different discussion than the million dollar predator drones that shot missiles at western Asia from a mile up. And to say that defending against ISIS/Houthi/Etc. drones is in any way similar to the experience Ukraine and Russia are getting seems wrong. But I’m probably misunderstanding? In general I’m not 100% convinced by “they use drones so they’re better with them” but it…

The US has decades of intensive research, development, and operational experience with of drones at every scale and for every mission. This ranges from the multi-million dollar predator drones you are thinking of to the dirt-cheap disposable drones used by infantry units that are basically just higher quality versions of what is being used in Ukraine. US military has been preparing for this for a long time and has a lot of real-world experience with it.

I think people have already forgotten that many of the early small-format drone capabilities used in Ukraine were provided by the US. An issue is that many of these types of drone systems developed by the US are export controlled, particularly the sensors and electronics, which limits the types available to Ukraine. Much of the equipment given to Ukraine by the US is obsolete or downgraded prior to delivery.

Ukraine and Russia are speed-running drone warfare that the US has been trying to perfect for decades. The US military has solutions to particular drone warfare problems that Ukraine/Russia have not yet solved.

Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#68
post #47
post #4

He was heavily mentioning drones in the Foreign Affairs piece [1] he wrote in the spring of 2023: "Innovation Power - Why Technology Will Define the Future of Geopolitics" > Drones offer distinct advantages over traditional weapons: they are smaller and cheaper, offer unmatched surveillance capabilities, and reduce soldiers’ risk exposure. Marines in urban warfare, for example, could be accompanied by microdrones tha…

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Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's diddling the CEO of his main investment; Michelle Ritter of Steel Perlot. He's a fucking creep who got lucky and was in the right place at the right time, just like most tech oligarchs we all bow to, like Musk, Larry and Sergey, Zuckerberg, or Dorsey. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2023/10/23/eric-schm...

Schmidt was the CEO of Novell which was a well known company at the time. And Google was a pretty unsafe bet. It's easy to say in hindsight that these people were lucky but at the time most of the founders you list made bets that were pretty unorthodox.

Yes. To the person alleging "luck":

what things have you said or done lately that will look incredibly stupid in 30 years?

Trick question. You don't know, do you?

Re: Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working on a Secret Military Drone Project

#70
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain? I think we’re having a different discussion than the million dollar predator drones that shot missiles at western Asia from a mile up. And to say that defending against ISIS/Houthi/Etc. drones is in any way similar to the experience Ukraine and Russia are getting seems wrong. But I’m probably misunderstanding? In general I’m not 100% convinced by “they use drones so they’re better with them” but it…

America doesn’t lack combat experience with small drones. > The fighting in Ukraine has provided "reinforcement and validation" of what US troops have learned about drones in the Middle East, Gainey said at the conference, echoing Army leaders who say the drone war in Ukraine is influencing their planning — particularly for how to counter the one-way attack drones that Russia has used widely. > "In some cases, yes, w…

Thanks for the detailed response and interesting links - I absolutely see what you’re saying. People like you are why hacker news is hard to quit!
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