Earlier quoted context omitted.
Generation capacity * capacity factor = reasonable estimate of generation over a window of time.
Maybe it's better to use numbers based on generation estimate then? Comparing capacity of baseload and intermittent energy sources is very misleading.
Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
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Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe it's better to use numbers based on generation estimate then? Comparing capacity of baseload and intermittent energy sources is very misleading.
The need for baseload generation is a myth. https://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/pub... https://energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-nothi... https://theconversation.com/baseload-power-is-a-myth-even-in...
Sure, renewables+gas can be considered a baseload source of electricity. Though it's not very cheap nor carbon neutral.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which is factored in the cost. Sometimes companies upgrade early because the newer versions are more efficient. The French are looking to have their entire nuclear fleet become EOL the next 20 years and for replacement they have 1 reactor being constructed. That is an awful spot to be in.
What is not factored in, however, is that nuclear reactors can work for much longer than 40 years (which is a time span used by LCOE). Not to mention storage and grid extension. French reactors will have their lifetime extended beyond 60 years which gives France plenty of time to restart it's nuclear industry.
It's often tossed around that reactors can work for 80 years, but not a single one has managed that yet. The longest running nuclear plant is Beznau in Switzerland, now running for 54 years. But it needed extensive and expensive repairs around 10 years ago costing billions [1]. Swiss media reported that the reactor contains thousands of holes. [2]
So the reality is less simple and rosy than people like to pretend.
[1] https://www.axpo.com/ch/en/about-us/energy-knowledge.detail.... [2] https://www.thelocal.ch/20151008/worlds-oldest-nuclear-react...
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
The need for baseload generation is a myth. https://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/pub... https://energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-nothi... https://theconversation.com/baseload-power-is-a-myth-even-in...
Sure, renewables+gas can be considered a baseload source of electricity. Though it's not very cheap nor carbon neutral.
Overproduction of renewables, transmission, and battery/pumped hydro storage negates the need for fossil gas for that last bit of power. Certainly, today, fossil gas is used to fill the gaps, but as the world begins deploying in excess of 1TW/year of renewables this year, that fossil gas will be rapidly pushed out of the mix. And it is arguably better to let those generation facilities become stranded and require decommissioning vs more nuclear (which is orders of magnitude more expensive to decomm due to the nature of nuclear fuel, spent, unspent, and anything it has exposed).
Once the world is awash in clean, renewable energy, we can then scale up direct air carbon capture, paying back the carbon debt we incurred through industrialization burning fossil fuels. No nuclear required.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Germany had been a net electricity exporter for the last 2 decades. I'm assuming that's still the case for last year or it would be bigger news. I did see one article fretting that they might turn into a net importer later in the decade.
No, Germany has been a net importer in 2023. Whereas in 2022, 27.5 TWh were exported, in 2023, 8.6 TWh had to be imported. The summer was particularly disastrous, with 5.5 TWh imported in August alone. Germany consumed 483 TWh in 2022 and 457 TWh in 2023. Image of net export (2023) by month: https://ibb.co/jDkg9sF . You can query and visualize these data on the official site of the Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network…
Germany has around 80GW of capacity in fossil fuel plants so it can generate pretty much all of its electricity from that alone. The reasons it doesn't are:
1) it's cheaper to use excess wind and solar from neighbouring countries which is the vast majority of its imports. Prices in Germany have gone down dramatically since the nuclear shutdown
2) it's better for the environment
So it's basically a win win and far away from disastrous. What is disastrous is when a quarter of your nuclear fleet goes offline unexpectedly and you need to import electricity in the middle of the biggest energy crisis of the last 50 years. And you need to nationalize the electricity company because it made a hole of 20 billion in a single year.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#66Technically true, but still misleading, as the total production has gone down significantly: 2022: 491,8 TWh 2023: 436,8 TWh So Germany is not replacing fossil fuels with renewables, it just produces less electricity overall. Which might be caused by the fact that electricity is so expensive nowadays, that especially energy-intensive industries are getting less and less economical, so they lower their production or e…
Total production went down 12% and fossil fuel production went down 22%. So even in that sense fossil fuels are replaced with renewables.
The energy intensive industries that are affected mostly use natural gas. Energy prices for both gas and electricity have reduced significantly this year.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is not factored in, however, is that nuclear reactors can work for much longer than 40 years (which is a time span used by LCOE). Not to mention storage and grid extension. French reactors will have their lifetime extended beyond 60 years which gives France plenty of time to restart it's nuclear industry.
It's often tossed around that reactors can work for 80 years, but not a single one has managed that yet. The longest running nuclear plant is Beznau in Switzerland, now running for 54 years. But it needed extensive and expensive repairs around 10 years ago costing billions [1]. Swiss media reported that the reactor contains thousands of holes. [2] So the reality is less simple and rosy than people like to pretend. [1…
Yes, nuclear reactors need maintenance, but extensions to 80 years are being approved, so 80+ years doesn't seem unrealistic for existing reactors.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#68Technically true, but still misleading, as the total production has gone down significantly: 2022: 491,8 TWh 2023: 436,8 TWh So Germany is not replacing fossil fuels with renewables, it just produces less electricity overall. Which might be caused by the fact that electricity is so expensive nowadays, that especially energy-intensive industries are getting less and less economical, so they lower their production or e…
How much of the production in 2023 were to prop up France's ailing nuclear plants? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fr...
In 2023 nothing because the plants are back online, but last year a lot. Although Germany does traditionally export electricity to France in the winter because France doesn't have enough to cover electrical heating. Not sure what happened this winter.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#69...and that's all because they take electricity from Czech Republic and France, leading to increased prices there. It's like with being green by dumping trash to Poland which regularly lets it burn in the open. "Solutions"
Sources please. The trade was pretty even between Germany and France as well as between the Czech Republic and Germany [1] The significant imports came from Denmark. [1] https://energy-charts.info/charts/import_export/chart.htm?l=...
Thanks. The irony of that comment is that prices in Europe last year skyrocketed because of the failure of French nuclear. All of the neighboring countries were stuck with the bill of that failure.
Re: Coal and fossil fuel use in Germany at a record low for electricity in 2023
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, renewables+gas can be considered a baseload source of electricity. Though it's not very cheap nor carbon neutral.
Overproduction of renewables, transmission, and battery/pumped hydro storage negates the need for fossil gas for that last bit of power. Certainly, today, fossil gas is used to fill the gaps, but as the world begins deploying in excess of 1TW/year of renewables this year, that fossil gas will be rapidly pushed out of the mix. And it is arguably better to let those generation facilities become stranded and require dec…
It sounds great until you start doing the math. We can't decarbonise without nuclear, just look at Germany. It's a poster child for renewables yet it's barely doing better than Poland (where I live). Meanwhile France is (as of now) emitting 1/10th of Germany's CO2 per unit of energy generated.