Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter • Hacker News Board

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#61

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 6:44 AM UTC

This article conflates two issues: the secular trend that is "software eating the world" and the local trend which is a valuation spike.

»The truth is that the technology sector as a whole over any length of time is a positive-sum game

Actually, no - a bubble means people aren't investing on fundamentals but on momentum; the expected value of the investment is negative. If we were in a bubble (as in bubbles past) we wouldn't be in a positive sum game. Saying that it would be a net positive game over "any period of time" is economically and empirically ridiculous.

I happen to believe that we are not in a bubble. But if we were it would matter - it would mean that when the bubble pops opportunities in the field would decrease in frequency and magnitude. Since career scars early on have more persistent effects than displacements later in life it follows that an aspiring tech star cannot ignore the market realities of what they're going into.

We are mortal, we can't just ride the secular trend. The local time scale matters, too.

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#62

Post by randomdata » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 8:36 AM UTC

moistgorilla wrote: post #36

olalonde wrote: post #29

On the other hand, there might come a time where software becomes so important and pervasive that it won't make sense anymore to call yourself a software engineer or a software company. I'm guessing there was once a time where the next big thing was to become a mathematician. However, mathematics has grown so central to so many fields that very few people nowadays call themselves mathematicians or dream of building m…

I completely agree with this post, soon people are going to open their eyes and programming will be taught from elementary school to high school. Not being able to program will be equivalent to what being illiterate was.

I agree, but I'll point out that programming has been part of the curriculum in this locality since at least the time my dad was in high school. He tells of writing programs on punch cards. We started with BASIC when I was in elementary school.

Despite that, I don't know of anyone who I went to school with that could write a single line of code today. Of them, I do have one friend who is also in the software business, but his skills lie in other area of production. He admits he cannot program.

For your vision to come true, programming will have to become much more fundamental, to the point that something else will have to be cut. Which other subject should get the axe?

Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter

#63

Post by ubasu » Tue, Apr 24, 2012, 4:42 PM UTC

olalonde wrote: post #44

ubasu wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called information asymmetry. As an individual, you do not have the power to get all the necessary information to make a sound decision, but working through the government - which in a democracy ideally represents you and others like you - you can get that information.

I'm not opposed to laws preventing corporations from providing false/misleading information, witholding relevant information, etc. I'm just saying people should be free to make the final judgement of whether or not they want to invest after having been presented with all relevant facts.

There's also the issue of enforcement. If a company gives you false information, you may not have the resources to sue them if it's only a civil matter, or if the local prosecutor declines to prosecute.