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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#61

Post by [deleted] »

crazygringo wrote: post #56
matrix87 wrote: post #52

The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statist…

No. The question is absolutely whether crime is or is not rising. Factually . Another question is what voters think. And yes that can affect politics. But the truth still matters. Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people. And we can do things like compare statistics with perceptions and figure out what is causing the discrepancies.

[deleted]

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#62

Post by zzleeper »

crazygringo wrote: post #58
verteu wrote: post #40

I dunno, I see a pretty large spike in homicide rate: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate or https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... (not per-capita) Much like inflation, people aren't great at estimating the precise year-over-year change, but the last 5 or 10 years shows some real reasons for concern.

You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.

In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series.

We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#63

Post by crazygringo »

pasttense01 wrote: post #7

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

You're going to have to point to some evidence that it's a "growing" consensus.

People have had that attitude for many, many decades. It's not new.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#64

Post by murderfs »

jliptzin wrote: post #38
fallingknife wrote: post #25

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for s…

Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?

Why should my tax dollars go towards investigating damage to your car, when you don't even have a single security guard?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#65

Post by peyton »

caditinpiscinam wrote: post #57
greatpostman wrote: post #6

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

Asking this not because I disagree with you, but because I want to know more about your perspective: what is your opinion of people who are skeptical of/hesitant towards vaccines?

Having no opinion is a lost art. I’m also not sure what you mean by “skeptical of vaccines.” Skepticism means doubting knowledge claims, so you’ll need to put forth some claims to have a real discussion here.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#66

Post by crazygringo »

zzleeper wrote: post #62
crazygringo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.

In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane

The imgur link is misleading because it's not per capita and doesn't show the 0 point.

Here is an accurate graph:

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/

We are nowhere near the peak of the 1990's, nor are we at 1995 levels.

Rates trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022:

https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/

Which would be back to pre-2020 levels.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#67

Post by defrost »

zzleeper wrote: post #62
crazygringo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.

In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane

> after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series.

The IMGUR link includes the text:

   Due to the full transition to NIRBS and the lack of data for agencies that are not fully transitioned, the 2021 data year cannot be added to the 5-, 10- or 20- year trend presentations that are based in traditional methodologies used
That's a giant flashing warning sign to data nerds everywhere that some change in the gathering | reporting of data took place exactly right when things "exploded".

The question remains, did crime (actual homicide numbers) really explode or did national reporting of homicide numbers suddenly improve | include backlogs | etc?

> We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels ..

These are absolute numbers .. and the US population has grown in 25 years, given the change in national reporting the per capita homicides rates may be more stable than the graph indicates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Incident-Based_Report...

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#69

Post by hn_go_brrrrr »

SantalBlush wrote: post #49

I've noticed a general pattern on HN, and I think this thread exemplifies it: If the research confirms someone's personal experience, then they don't question the research methodology. On the other hand, if the research contradicts their experience, they look deeper into the methodology to find flaws in it. It's just a more intellectual form of confirmation bias.

This is a general human pattern and not at all confined to HN.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#70

Post by jeremyjh »

hx8 wrote: post #47
ethanbond wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?

It describes a process in which crime reporting progressively gets further from the ground truth over time. This isn't new.

All of those incentives were in play 50 years ago. You may as well say you just don't like statistics that you disagree with.
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