61–70 of 87 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
BTC has drastically outperformed gold over last 10 years but is also extremely volatile https://inflationchart.com/gold-in-btc/?logarithmic=1
Zoom out a bunch on the gold price chart and you'll see it is volatile as well.
If you adjust for inflation, there have been 3 periods in the last 50 years with higher gold values. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...
Looks like Great Depression, 1979/1980, and right after the Great Recession. What is the significance of 79/80?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> for the level of real inflation I'm not normally doing much business in gold, the value of gold compared to the dollar is nearly meaningless to me. I do often buy things like food and energy. To me the value of the dollar compared to a gallon of gas or a plate of food or a kWh of electricity is the "real" inflation. The value of gold isn't "real" to me or most consumers.
prices, of all goods, inflate exponentially the relative value of specific goods fluctuates within a small constant in the long run, the exponential dominates the linear ---- thus the price of gold is a yardstick of the exponential inflation of prices, irrespective of the relative fluctuations of gold vs food vs energy
Or, here's an idea, maybe we should use a weighted index of several of those things as a measure, in order to prevent misleading data from the fluctuations in the price of any one item?
The US real estate to gold ration has always facinated me: https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/ If you bought a house with gold in 1890 or 2023, the price would be... about the same.
So in terms of gold, real estate is currently kind of cheap?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> for the level of real inflation I'm not normally doing much business in gold, the value of gold compared to the dollar is nearly meaningless to me. I do often buy things like food and energy. To me the value of the dollar compared to a gallon of gas or a plate of food or a kWh of electricity is the "real" inflation. The value of gold isn't "real" to me or most consumers.
prices, of all goods, inflate exponentially the relative value of specific goods fluctuates within a small constant in the long run, the exponential dominates the linear ---- thus the price of gold is a yardstick of the exponential inflation of prices, irrespective of the relative fluctuations of gold vs food vs energy
If you adjust for inflation, there have been 3 periods in the last 50 years with higher gold values. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...
Looks like Great Depression, 1979/1980, and right after the Great Recession. What is the significance of 79/80?
How does this track with bitcoin prices, out of curiosity? (Full disclosure: I own neither!)
The price of gold priced in ₿, keeps falling. See also https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/
I'm curious if the correlation is generally positive (as people seek both when getting out of cash) or negative (for the reason described above).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> for the level of real inflation I'm not normally doing much business in gold, the value of gold compared to the dollar is nearly meaningless to me. I do often buy things like food and energy. To me the value of the dollar compared to a gallon of gas or a plate of food or a kWh of electricity is the "real" inflation. The value of gold isn't "real" to me or most consumers.
prices, of all goods, inflate exponentially the relative value of specific goods fluctuates within a small constant in the long run, the exponential dominates the linear ---- thus the price of gold is a yardstick of the exponential inflation of prices, irrespective of the relative fluctuations of gold vs food vs energy
And here's the real question. If the price of gas and the price of food stays the same but gold goes to $9,000/oz, did my life change? No, not really. If the other prices stay the same but gold goes to $20/oz, did my life change? No. If gas goes to $50/gal, did my life change? Radically. If (index of food) goes 10x higher, did my life change? Radically. Which is the "real" inflation again?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
prices, of all goods, inflate exponentially the relative value of specific goods fluctuates within a small constant in the long run, the exponential dominates the linear ---- thus the price of gold is a yardstick of the exponential inflation of prices, irrespective of the relative fluctuations of gold vs food vs energy
In an economy, gold is just one more good. Sure, we could use it as an inflation index. Or we could use gasoline, or new cars, or eggs, or any of a million other things. Why should we use gold as opposed to all those other things? Or, here's an idea, maybe we should use a weighted index of several of those things as a measure, in order to prevent misleading data from the fluctuations in the price of any one item?
Nah. Who would do that. We can just look at the price of gold, that's all that really matters.