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In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

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Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#61

It's a bit difficult to arrive at any number of years past 10,000 for any invention imaginable, past that they will all be unimaginable.

> bit difficult to arrive at any number of years past 10,000 for any invention imaginable

The mean time between paradigm shifts in the natural sciences [1] is 25 years. (Max: 144 years, between Copernican cosmology and Vesalius's work on anatomy in 1543 and the transition to classical mechanics in 1687. Exempting that, the mean time is 18 years.)

I would take that, which is remarkably close to to the length of a generation [2], as being a fundamental factor of the maximum extent of our technological forecasting abilities. A century, 4x that factor, strikes me as the upper bound, though I could be convinced of even 10x in a very stable field. 400x, on the other hand, seems absurd.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift#Natural_science... ranges taken at midpoint

[2] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm7047

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#62
This relates very well to AGI.

There can be long periods of minimal quantitative progress, even quantitative regression, before a massive qualitative leap that's the result of making a few small changes.

Planes either fly or fall.

The difference is that a super-intelligent AGI could provide immense value in secret. It's somewhat hard to keep a plane secret. It's value is largely in moving people, so people have to know about it and they fly right there in the sky for everyone to see. Also, massive rockets are hard to hide, and a lot of the value was publicity.

I expect that somebody somewhere is going to have AGI for a period of time when the rest of the world doesn't know they have it... and right now feels like that time. People are openly publishing LLMs that float awfully close to those motorized gliders that decidedly, definitely didn't fly... until suddenly they did. It's only a matter of time until someone figures out how to make these fly, and the question isn't when, but when we'll find out.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#63
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine a moonshot program for cancer(s) at the time. Or a moonshot program for computer chips. It's not so much the money spent as the "we get to recruit all the smartest researchers and new grads for 2 generations to focus on a sole achievement" aspect. Getting to the moon was inspirational, but functionally curing even one type of common cancer or ushering in the information revolution a decade or two ahead of sch…

> Or a moonshot program for computer chips. I can do that. I can imagine the Apollo program just like it happened, with one spinoff being computer chips and microelectronics. If it wasn't for Apollo we'd probably still be using rotary-dial phones owned by the local PTT.

Imagine the spinoffs from the Apollo program if the Apollo program's mission was creating computer chips and microelectronics.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#64

Haters gonna hate is such a deep thought, I guess we have a new journalist competing for the pulitzer this year. All in all, thinking about it, would have been better to have a world without flight, since I think it favoured globalisation and shrinking of working class rights, pollution, hypertourism and another kind of pollution, as italian i’d summon inhabitants of venice to see what they think of the americans fly…

Good luck pushing your brand of decelerationism here. Maybe one day we can all return to being peasants farming fields and releasing zero carbon emissions in whatever world you're idealizing.

I’m making an argument by offering some of the effects of a shrinked world on general population, you can also reply with less generalised response and say why each point was not correct, I am not advocating for farming probably, but more exposing my opinion of how each innovation has had destructive effects on us

I don’t have to push anything, I think it’s the planet itself that will push its own brand of antitech by displacing populations and becoming less inhabitable, hope all the servant of capitalism will be happy when they will die thanks to the effect of climate change thinking that thanks to them their corporate overlords will be mostly ok, will they have consumed enough? Will they have worked enough? Will they have been good subjects?

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine a moonshot program for cancer(s) at the time. Or a moonshot program for computer chips. It's not so much the money spent as the "we get to recruit all the smartest researchers and new grads for 2 generations to focus on a sole achievement" aspect. Getting to the moon was inspirational, but functionally curing even one type of common cancer or ushering in the information revolution a decade or two ahead of sch…

Can we just throw money at the issue? Going to the Moon was an engineering challenge. We knew what was required, we "just" needed to do the necessary work. Some research advancements in material science were needed, but they were incremental. We also got some computer advancements out of the deal too, and sensors. Even the reflectors placed on the Moon proved to be very useful. For cancer – they are several diseases…

It wasn't mainly that money got thrown at research. It was mainly that several generations of researchers were funneled into a singular mission, fueled by patriotism / ideology / propaganda.

A JFK speech calling the nation to adventure + a blank cheque to your org + Walter Cronkite on tv & your nephew at school calling you a hero researcher can get a lot of basic science done.

Is that basic science better aimed at a moon landing or better aimed at stopping people from dying from colorectal cancer?

A moon landing is inspirational (and theoretically achievable) whereas stopping colorectal cancer is a big abstract "maybe".

A moon landing gets you "don't mess with us because we have amazing rockets & targeting systems" cred.

A "we can now save millions of our citizens from this one cancer" gets you "our capitalist society is more advanced than your communist society" cred.

I'm not saying Moon Landing wasn't the obvious choice or wasn't the right choice. I'm saying it wasn't as generally valuable as other choices.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#67
So, the "Big Thinks" assertion here is that sometimes people are wrong and as a result incorrectly predict the future and that this pattern continues today. This is all so obvious and leads to no specific conclusion so I have to wonder, who is this article actually _for_? People who just don't like hearing the word "no?"

The Navy general was partly right. The government was the wrong entity to pursue flight and it was best left in private hands.

The New York Times was partly right. It took a lot of work to develop commercial and military flight to the level it is now. They were also on the verge of a worldwide communications upgrade, so those 10m person years came together faster than imagined.

The other article is also partly right. Flight is not so cheap that it is widely available, there are billions of living people on this planet who will never fly because they will never have enough money to afford it before they die.

The British astronomer just wanted a telescope instead of individual space travel. He was arguing about the best way to use a limited amount of money and specifically disclaimed any ability to predict the future.

Finally.. the original idea of the Apollo program was incredibly ambitious and was put forward in a top down fashion by the president. This was unprecedented for peace time America. Even then, they have to acknowledge that half the country was on board, and a vast majority actually sat down and watched the spectacle.

I hate articles like this, they try to wash away all nuance to end up with a self serving conclusion designed to mollify the "move fast and break things" crowd. The "Big Think" does some of the smallest thinking I've ever seen.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we just throw money at the issue? Going to the Moon was an engineering challenge. We knew what was required, we "just" needed to do the necessary work. Some research advancements in material science were needed, but they were incremental. We also got some computer advancements out of the deal too, and sensors. Even the reflectors placed on the Moon proved to be very useful. For cancer – they are several diseases…

It wasn't mainly that money got thrown at research. It was mainly that several generations of researchers were funneled into a singular mission, fueled by patriotism / ideology / propaganda. A JFK speech calling the nation to adventure + a blank cheque to your org + Walter Cronkite on tv & your nephew at school calling you a hero researcher can get a lot of basic science done. Is that basic science better aimed at a…

I'd imagine more has been spent on cancer research at this point than the moon landing.

Re: In 1903, NY Times predicted airplanes would take 10M years to develop

#70

So, the "Big Thinks" assertion here is that sometimes people are wrong and as a result incorrectly predict the future and that this pattern continues today. This is all so obvious and leads to no specific conclusion so I have to wonder, who is this article actually _for_? People who just don't like hearing the word "no?" The Navy general was partly right. The government was the wrong entity to pursue flight and it wa…

The cost of the Apollo program was pretty cheap considering it also, in remarkably short order, delivered integrated circuits, fly-by-wire aircraft control, and GPS navigation.

Claims on other advances might be taken with somewhat more skepticism, particularly as regards the ISS, STS, and wholly too numerous Mars landers, but it would be hard to justify complaints about the cost of Galileo or Cassini/Huygens.

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