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Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

thejusticegap.com

61–70 of 93 posts

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#61
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those arguments included that the suspicious deaths all lined up perfectly with Lucy Letby's shifts, that she was often caught interacting with those babies when she had been instructed not to, and that when she was taken off the ward the deaths instantly stopped. That is a level of causality checking far stronger than most Bayesian analyses.

I went down the rabbit hole on this a couple of months ago. Some of the details are a bit hazy in my memory now as it was about 2 months ago, but in the interest of playing devil's advocate... > the suspicious deaths all lined up perfectly with Lucy Letby's shifts Once a nurse has been around the ward for long enough to have seen several deaths, you can produce a table showing a set of baby deaths correlating to any…

Considering point #4: I am aware of a case locally where a nurse was accused of murdering a baby. Digging deeper we find: The nurses had been complaining of the low quality supplies that were being provided. Specifically mentioned were IV lines that were prone to breakage. The baby died from a failure of an IV line at just the wrong spot.

The hospital's expert witness supposedly said the line had been cut. Dig deeper: No, the witness was asked if the damage to the line was consistent with being cut. Yes, it was, but that doesn't mean it wasn't also consistent with simply breaking.

In the end it's pretty clear the hospital tried to throw the nurse under the bus to cover up the fact that it was their shoddy supplies that killed the baby. No idea on what sort of settlement the parents got, no details on what the nurse got but it was substantial.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apart from the general ridiculousness of insinuating that of all records someone might adulterate or invent, he would pick a digital copy of a discharge letter sent to an third party whose other baby had died , your timelines are all wrong. Breary got the police involved in April 2017. Nobody thinks it's a coincidence that it was a few days before Letby was due to return to the ward; stopping her from returning to th…

"Apart from the general ridiculousness of insinuating that of all records someone might adulterate or invent, he would pick a digital copy of a discharge letter sent to an third party whose other baby had died, [..]" That's what you say. I neither said nor insinuated any of that. The case is supported by two main pillars. One is the idea that the stats support suspicions clusters of deaths. I expected that to be chal…

Thank you for posting the timeline

So unless you're going to insist on a special calendar in which February 2018 occured two days before March 2017, you're basically confirming that I was correct to point out that your original statement that "Dr Breary, who was also under pressure because of the apparent rise of deaths in his department, came up with this document more than two and a half years after the child was released and just a couple of days before Letby was about to return to his department against his will." got the timeline all wrong.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#63
post #16
post #5

> There are obvious parallels with the Lethby case. Statements in de Berk’s diary about ‘a very great secret’ and a ‘compulsion’ on a day that a patient had died were given a sinister interpretation. They didn't include any examples of the parallel. This goes over some of the notes: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/13/lucy-letby-p... > On another, she wrote “I am a horrible evil person” and on another in…

On the afternoon of the conviction, there was an expert criminal psychiatrist on BBC radio who had been following the trial closely. Apparently those notes, though they made all the headlines, played little part in her conviction, and are typical for someone suffering stress &| depression. The thing that did for her apparently were messages she had sent some of the parents, the times of which contradicted her testimo…

[deleted]

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Apart from the general ridiculousness of insinuating that of all records someone might adulterate or invent, he would pick a digital copy of a discharge letter sent to an third party whose other baby had died, [..]" That's what you say. I neither said nor insinuated any of that. The case is supported by two main pillars. One is the idea that the stats support suspicions clusters of deaths. I expected that to be chal…

Thank you for posting the timeline So unless you're going to insist on a special calendar in which February 2018 occured two days before March 2017, you're basically confirming that I was correct to point out that your original statement that "Dr Breary, who was also under pressure because of the apparent rise of deaths in his department, came up with this document more than two and a half years after the child was r…

Oh, this is so embarrassing and I only see it now.

What I initially misread was "Letby had been just six days from returning to work on the neonatal unit at this point." from [1]. This sentence refers to the 27 April 2017 two paragraphs before and not to the smoking gun discovery in the following paragraph. When I compiled the timeline I totally focussed on the months. 27 April plus six days would be May. But 2017, not 2018.

I stand corrected and thank you for pointing it out.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#65
post #57
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the little old thing that she wrote "I killed them on purpose" on a post-it-note at her house.

Those notes had little effect in her conviction apparently, according to a criminal psychiatrist on BBC radio. It is behaviour typical of someone suffering depression, for which she was having treatment at the time.

Writing "I killed them on purpose" is not typical behaviour of depressed people.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#66
post #11

While the statisticians are right to be cautious about clusters of deaths => serial killer, we also have to remember that a 9 month trial presented lots of evidence to a jury, they deliberated for over a week, and returned seven guilty verdicts. Unless you were also sitting at that trial or have read every line of court transcript, it would be very unwise to start claiming there's a miscarriage of justice.

I suppose, but it wouldn't be the first time a judge or jury was swayed by dubious statistics. At least that is exactly what happened to Lucia de B [1] (which they mention in the article), which at first glance looks eerily similar. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucia_de_Berk

Please; write 'Lucia de Berk', not 'Lucia de B'. She was exonerated in full, and has since indicated quite clearly that she wishes to be known under her full name, not the initialized suspect name.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#67

I like to remember that the odds of winning the lottery are easily in the 1 in 50 million, yet people still seem to win it. It’s statistically improbably to get 7 sons, but I’m certain that throughout history that’s happened at least once.

it's only statistically improbable to get 7 sons (in a row) if you have all couples that create 7 children have a 50/50 chance of son/daughter. If you have a reason why a couple will only produce sons (genetics) then it becomes much less surprising.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#68
post #57
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the little old thing that she wrote "I killed them on purpose" on a post-it-note at her house.

Those notes had little effect in her conviction apparently, according to a criminal psychiatrist on BBC radio. It is behaviour typical of someone suffering depression, for which she was having treatment at the time.

Yes, typically, when people are depressed, they write things like "I ate my neighbours for breakfast" or "I massacred everyone in the mall". I get that too. My desk is covered with those notes.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apart from the general ridiculousness of insinuating that of all records someone might adulterate or invent, he would pick a digital copy of a discharge letter sent to an third party whose other baby had died , your timelines are all wrong. Breary got the police involved in April 2017. Nobody thinks it's a coincidence that it was a few days before Letby was due to return to the ward; stopping her from returning to th…

"Apart from the general ridiculousness of insinuating that of all records someone might adulterate or invent, he would pick a digital copy of a discharge letter sent to an third party whose other baby had died, [..]" That's what you say. I neither said nor insinuated any of that. The case is supported by two main pillars. One is the idea that the stats support suspicions clusters of deaths. I expected that to be chal…

Why was Child F in the hospital? Is it posible to be a false positive?

From https://www.google.com/search?q=c-peptide+false+positive

https://labs.selfdecode.com/blog/c-peptide/

> However, while healthy kidneys are efficient at breaking down C-peptide, in people with impaired kidney function and kidney disease, blood C-peptide levels will falsely increase and urine levels will falsely decrease.

Re: Experts warn Letby inquiry of misreading stats to explain 'suspicious' deaths

#70

In two cases, the victim died by insulin overdose, Letby herself admitted that the only possible explanation was foul play. That means there is a killer on the ward. The police interviewed the other nurse on the shift, and she was cleared. Even if Letby gets acquitted from the other cases, her sentencing likely will not change. One challenge for the defence was that there are few studies on injecting air in small bab…

Those babies didn't die. Those were not murder accusations but attempted murder.

To clarify. Lucy Letby was accused of deliberately administering a high dose of insulin to two babies, in an attempt to murder them.

Those two babies were "Child F", and "Child L" for both of which she was charged , and convicted of attempted murder.

My source for this information is this article in "Nursing Times":

https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/children/breaking-lucy-let...

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