Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions • Hacker News Board

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#61

Post by Spivak » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:33 PM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #12

voisin wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t sound like it is about shareholder value here. They can’t find enough carbon credit programs that meet their internal quality requirements and they are trying to actually not greenwash, so rather than go with a quantity of low quality carbon credits, they scrapped the program altogether. I view this as more of an indictment of carbon credits than anything.

>It doesn’t sound like it is about shareholder value here. They can’t find enough carbon credit programs that meet their internal quality requirements and they are trying to actually not greenwash That's just not accurate. This is the CEO who basically cut all of their plans around renewables. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/shells-renewables-boss-leav...

I don't think it's particularly surprising that a company would try, fail, and move on from a market segment where they don't have first mover advantage and are playing catch up in an already fast moving industry. The only thing they would really have to contribute is a financial play and I can't say, "all these renewable energy companies are actually owned by oil companies" is an incentive structure I like.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#62

Post by logifail » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:35 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #44

wredue wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some 40% of the population is actively pro big oil and actively denies the carbon footprint causal links with climate change and warming. You think 20 years is enough for this reckoning? Honestly, I think they’re all going to get away with it with zero repercussion. If humanity is still around in a couple hundred years, there might be retroactive virtue signalling. But that doesn’t matter cause everyone responsible w…

Price is set at the margin. Supply 100, demand 101 price goes up. Supply 100 demand 99 price goes down until supply and demand equalize. 75% of new electricity production is renewable. 10% of new car sales are EV's. A large fraction of new home heating installations are heat pumps. The three largest hydrocarbon demands are transitioning. That's going to have a meaningful effect on demand. It'll take decades to get an…

> Can the companies & countries addicted to massive oil profits cut production quickly enough to stabilize prices?

If you look at the Brent Crude (oil) price chart and zoom out so you can see the last 10 years it's definitely not showing any sign of a long-term downward trend.

https://www.google.com/search?q=brent+crude+oil+price

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#63

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:36 PM UTC

unlikelymordant wrote: post #55

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there are x offsets available, and demand is x + 100, then when Shell buys offsets, they're not really fixing the problem at all, they're just shifting blame right? They're saying "since we spent this money on the offsets, our carbon emissions were good (or at least 'less bad'), but the other company that couldn't afford or wouldn't bother with the offsets is bad even though there were only enough offsets for one…

The increase in demand drives up the price of offsets, which increases supply and investment in better carbon capture techniques and scaling. Im lumping in things like direct air capture, bioenergy carbon capture and storage, and enhanced weathering as offset generating technologies that are currently too expensive to be widespread, but with higher carbon prices would become practical.

> The increase in demand drives up the price of offsets,

Except there are limits which the demand, for the most part, can't overcome.

> Im lumping in things like direct air capture, bioenergy carbon capture and storage,

All of these things are energy intensive, aren't they? So as energy becomes more expensive, so do they. Demand never gets quite so high that it's worth it to pay for this, because the price is always rising. There's another alternative in such situations... "just don't buy carbon offsets". The PR hit's cheaper after all.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#64

Post by sgu999 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #7

It makes a ton of sense if your focus is only short-term profit. It makes absolutely 0 sense if your goal is to try to decrease the legal liability of knowingly causing global warming and actively suppressing those internal studies to increase profits. Feels like the oil companies are going to face a big tobacco moment in the next 20 years and the previous CEO was preparing their defense of "don't punish us for the s…

> That's all ignoring the: do you actually care at all if your great grandchildren have a habitable planet?

Their great grandchildren will be able to comfortably inhabit it alright, that's all that matters to them, at the very best.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#65

Post by akamaka » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

iamflimflam1 wrote: post #30

I try to remain positive, but climate change is the one area where I have pretty much lost hope. People (and I include myself) are simply unwilling to accept that their lives have to change. Barring some of unforeseen technical miracle the next 20-30 years are going to get increasingly grim.

If you embrace hopelessness and do nothing to make the transition away from fossil fuels, it’s your own life that will be grim as carbon is more heavily taxed and life becomes increasingly unaffordable.

I’m personally quite optimistic, because I’ve already made most of the necessary adjustments, and it wasn’t very hard at all.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#66

Post by datavirtue » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

ff317 wrote: post #46

TinyRick wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> public opinion would still make it palatable to continue hydrocarbon fuels extraction for another 2 to 3 decades I don't think it's public opinion so much as it is necessity to maintain current standards of living for the next few decades. Renewable energy is still a relatively small fraction of overall energy use, and net global oil consumption has been steadily increasing the past few years (likely to surpass pre…

I think we'll never stop extracting oil in the foreseeable future, we'll just be doing a lot less of it. There will always be corner cases where diesel or other oil derivatives (or NG) are the /only/ reasonable option for fuel. Think generators for an antarctic station that can only use solar in certain months and wind isn't enough (or reliable enough)). Even if efficient electric commercial aviation at scale ever ha…

Yeah, just seeing the axle grease requirements and inventory on an aircraft carrier is a wakeup call. Our military is 110% reliant on oil to even function at all. The economic scale of consumer oil consumption and the petro-dollar are a key military concern to enable warfighting ability. When that sinks in, Iraq and Afghanistan make a lot more sense.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#67

Post by sobkas » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:38 PM UTC

Then there should be consequences for destroying environment and making earth inhabitable for humans. Oil industry knew that burning fossil fuels will lead to global warming. Plastic industry knew that recycling is a total sham, and most of it will at best end up on a landfill at worts everywhere including our food. They knew but then they lied to us to make more profits. Maybe we should take that ill gotten profits from them and if it will bankrupt them so be it. Because we're slowly getting out of time to do anything.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#68

Post by fwungy » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:39 PM UTC

The rising BRICS dominate hydrocarbons and they aren't giving them up, selling or using.

We should be focused on mitigation strategies and superior technology that wins conversion based on market forces and not government mandates and long term subsidies.

The Green Suicide of the West isn't going to help climate change, and will probably make it worse.

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#69

Post by Cockbrand » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:39 PM UTC

threesevenths wrote: post #5

Shareholders will be shareholders and demand value. CEO performs to increase shareholder value regardless of any negative outcomes that won’t directly impact shareholders Entirely predictable result of the narrow view of the CEO shareholder relationship.

See also "Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time, we created a lot of value for shareholders." [0]

[0] https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995

Re: Shell abandons its plan to offset CO2 emissions

#70

Post by dangus » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:39 PM UTC

matthewdgreen wrote: post #58

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If your view is that all fossil fuel assets are headed towards zero over the next 3-4 decades, then you want to extract every last penny from the existing assets and move them into the pockets of shareholders. I can not locate the long piece article now but I read a piece from someone that effectively got invited into a Shell (UK) think tank and heard exactly that from some vp/executive at a dinner table. That they…

I guess my question is at what point does the decline in fossil extraction become self-reinforcing. If extraction is going down, firms won’t invest in developing new resources. This means constraints on supply leading to higher prices. That in turn will drive less consumption (particularly as non-fossil alternatives become mainstream.) There is a potential feedback loop here that drives things towards zero much more…

That’s exactly what I think is happening.

Make no mistake, oil will always be needed for many purposes, but some of the big consumption drivers are starting to have price competitive alternatives.

It’s notable that half of all global oil consumption is used on roads.

You can’t turn back the clock on the fact that many of these alternatives now cost less.