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A look into the finances of SpaceX

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Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By definition, spending on something that is consumable (like a rocket launch) is not a capital expenditure. A capital expenditure is when you buy something whose value slowly decreases with time. If a factory buys a building for $10MM, it isn't any poorer. Yes, it has $10MM less in the bank, but it also has a building worth $10MM. As the building loses value with time the factory gets poorer: it's that loss of value…

A starlink launch takes lots of money but results in dozens of new satellites in orbit that in theory could be sold to some other company looking to create an internet constellation. That doesn’t seem that different from a factory where it takes money to build the factory, but then the factory can, in theory be sold. Yes the launch disappears, but the thing the launch did doesn’t.

Exactly. Those satellites is an income-generating asset.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#62
post #9

Is there a way for a mortal to buy or invest into SpaceX or are we just waiting for an IPO eventually?

SpaceX is the second biggest holding in The Private Shares Fund [0]. This is an Interval Fund - effectively a mutual fund except that you can only sell it one day per quarter due to limited liquidity. [0] - https://privatesharesfund.com/portfolio/

Does that mean you're buying out employees with stock or others that have bought out employees with stock or is the some other raise from the past?

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#63

Is there a way for a mortal to buy or invest into SpaceX or are we just waiting for an IPO eventually?

Go work for them on a position that has equity as part of the compensation. Otherwise, I doubt it. Elon has been pretty vocal about regretting making Tesla public. Additionally SpaceX as a company is oriented around putting humans on mars. Until that happens, I expect a supermajority of ownership would be against the profit seeking motives that an IPO creates. Short of investing in them, you could look for companies…

>Elon has been pretty vocal about regretting making Tesla public

That's laughable, because without making Tesla public he wouldn't be able to live the superstar uber rich lifestyle he thinks he deserves. Pretty much everything he has personally is owed to Tesla public valuation.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#64
post #57
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rational return to the moon program that had to choose between Falcon and SLS would choose Falcon.

You’d probably have to figure out on orbit manufacturing, then, so I don’t think that is at all clear.

On-orbit assembly, the demonstration of which was the single actual real accomplishment of the Space Station program. And yet NASA just threw that in the garbage.

If we can't do something as simple as assemble modules in space, exactly what sort of future do you imagine is waiting for us in space?

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#65

From Reuters... > In 2022, revenue doubled to $4.6 billion, helping the company reduce its loss last year to $559 million from $968 million, the WSJ reported. > The company reported about $5.2 billion in total expenses for 2022, up from $3.3 billion the year earlier, according to the report. That $5.2B of expenses got 61 successful, production Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Vs. some pretty-reasonable estimates put t…

Part of those expenses are probably building starlink and starship r&d. I suspect F9 no longer has significant r&d expenses.

I wonder if your NASA figure also includes first launch, that may include r&d?! Because for a single launch, when you substract r&d or even spread out across all planned launches - can't be that high...

I'm just for comparing apples to apples not apples to oranges.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#66

How are Starlink launches accounted for? Are they considered revenue? Capex? Expenses? I guess it depends on the exact corporate structure.

Business mileage.

"Okay so we get to deduct per mile so... what do you we just spin a few hundred times around the moon before heading back?

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold on, they have an evaliation of 150 billion , more than 30x the revenue?

The current P/E ratio for the S&P 500 (growing far more slowly, obviously) is ~25. By many historical metrics, the stock markets are insanely overvalued these days. Far too much cash in the system, bidding up the "values" of anything that remotely resembles an investment.

P/E is price to earnings, not revenue.

SpaceX is insanely overvalued.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#68
post #25

Did their profits increase? Elon claimed reusable rockets would be orders of magnitude cheaper. Is that statement true?

Thier losses decreased so yes. They are launching at an unbelievably cheap price compared to anyone else on the planet.

They are still heavily investing in starship and starling though so that is a large pot of why they are running at a loss

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#69
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talk of putting people on Mars is how they recruit young idealistic engineers. I think to understand what SpaceX is actually about you need to understand who Michael Griffin is and what he's all about. He went with Musk when he tried to buy an ICBM from Russia; he conceived of NASA's Commercial Resupply Services program and gave the contract to SpaceX, before SpaceX had ever put anything into orbit. Ditto the Commerc…

> During this time, he met entrepreneur Elon Musk and accompanied him on a trip to Russia > In December 2008, with SpaceX again on the verge of bankruptcy, Griffin awarded SpaceX along with his own Orbital Sciences company each contracts with a combined value of $3.5 billion It's crazy how nepotism is still such an important aspect of success today. It's very likely had they never known each other, SpaceX would not e…

>I also don't understand how it's not a conflict of interest to award his own company that contract?

This kind of inside dealing is just the status quo in american businesses today. Every CEO is on the board of the companies where their board members are CEOs. Really easy to get your board to approve a comp increase when they know you will do the same for them.

Big business is a social club and you ain't in it.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go work for them on a position that has equity as part of the compensation. Otherwise, I doubt it. Elon has been pretty vocal about regretting making Tesla public. Additionally SpaceX as a company is oriented around putting humans on mars. Until that happens, I expect a supermajority of ownership would be against the profit seeking motives that an IPO creates. Short of investing in them, you could look for companies…

Talk of putting people on Mars is how they recruit young idealistic engineers. I think to understand what SpaceX is actually about you need to understand who Michael Griffin is and what he's all about. He went with Musk when he tried to buy an ICBM from Russia; he conceived of NASA's Commercial Resupply Services program and gave the contract to SpaceX, before SpaceX had ever put anything into orbit. Ditto the Commerc…

Yep, Griffin even shared the plenary talks with Musk when he gave the famous Mars Society announcement about going to Mars, https://marspedia.org/images/9/99/2001_TMS_Conv_Sched.pdf

They were very close. Elon named his first born son Griffin.

Mike Griffin is all about putting (eventually) hypersonic weapons in space and resurrecting Brilliant Pebbles.

He was the early advocate for reusable launchers https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/daily/may99/r... and the Falcon name came from his DARPA Falcon Project.

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