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Impact time is in the past. Mission accomplished, everyone!
Am I reading this data correctly?: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038 Because it looks like today is the most probable day of impact at 10%, but there is a good 25%+ chance it will impact sometime in the next two weeks.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quora is pretty much unreadable now. Is the main answer just chat gpt? That's how it seems from mobile view. The page is too noisy to navigate for me.
Yep, they've added a ChatGPT answer on top of all the human answers. Although in this case the human answer isn't really better, but it's the fault of the person who asked the question for being vague about the kind of speed they meant.
It passed about 9 hours ago.
https://www.projectpluto.com/neocp2/mpecs/ZTm0038.htm
In particular the MOID (Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the minimum distance between the orbit of the object and the Earth, in AU) is 0.0199 AU which is still 3 million km
How long ago was it spotted. That's what I'm curious about, did we have any lead time?
3 days ago, it was first seen. About a dozen observations. F***, it's not fun that these pass with so little forewarning. ZTm0038* C2023 08 12.49542 06 32 33.23 +15 57 35.5 18.86rUNEOCPI41 Is the first entry, and asterisk-marked, on https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038 at the bottom, in the Observations section. Unusual (new to me) format. Appears to me, first guess to read: [object] [yr] [m] [day.time-d…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bU1QPtOZQZU
Of course 500 Km is a big difference with 400 meters but to those near the point of impact it wouldn't matter and the global effects would still be beyond anything in our history.
This is one interpretation of what this could look like:
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I used the Earth Impact Effects Program calc w/ 90 deg impact, rock asteroid, and 15km/s. https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?dist=100&diam... 4 mile crater, 2300 MT of TNT equiv. so about 45 Tsar Bombas.
Where did you find the mass/size?
Was any action taken at all? A 3% risk isn't small.
Here's a visualization of its orbit, Earth in green, object in teal: http://orbitsimulator.com/gravitySimulatorCloud/yr/gsim2023.... It passed about 9 hours ago.
ZTm0038\* C2023 08 12.49542 06 32 33.23 +15 57 35.5 18.86rUNEOCPI41
[object] [yr] [m] [day.time-decimal] [position] [elevation-angle] [observatory]I don't know what I'm talking about. Just giving best-guess interpretations.