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How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

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Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#61

Post by sprynr »

psd1 wrote: post #50

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't fabs need plentiful water? Why Arizona and Texas...?

> State leaders had helped persuade the companies to open the facilities by offering big tax breaks and water and other infrastructure grants. > Intel soon announced a $20 billion expansion in Chandler, with two additional factories that would bring 3,000 new jobs to the state. Chandler also approved $30 million in water and road improvements for the new plants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/technology/arizona-chips-...

Basically just told them "Don't worry about it, we'll foot the bill for any infrastructure needed to get you your water"

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#62

Post by colechristensen »

shubb wrote: post #39
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale... What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product…

>One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should.

I would say exactly the opposite, the vaccines were made quite quickly and there weren't major supply issues.

The Defense Production Act (er... central planning as you put it) was used to say what was going to happen when with money to back it up and... things happened quickly.

DPA wasn't invoked to build you new cars or supply you toilet paper so... those things had their supply issues.

The US actually can do logistics very well, especially when there's somebody willing to foot the bill for big asks. The lack of corruption and general merit-based placement here compared to so many other places combined with a large degree of vertical integration means that we can accomplish quite a lot and is one of the underappreciated cornerstones of our ability to make war (and why nobody wants to fight us).

We are decimating (and then some) Russia's military by giving away second tier equipment to Ukraine, and the amount we're giving away is basically an afterthought. A one-time superpower is scraping the bottom of the barrel for equipment fighting against largely NATO supplied spare equipment.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#63

Post by bagacrap »

Spooky23 wrote: post #36
bob1029 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

It’s the worst business to work for. You’ll work 60 hours a week for shitty pay, and be the Yoda of some tool. In 10 years there will be a new magic tool. Then you start learning the Starbucks menu.

Why can't you learn the next tool?

Everyone in a tech field has to retain the ability to learn new things over time. AI might not take our jobs but it will likely change them. I guess it sucks if you have a fear of learning. Admittedly, at first learning a new thing can be kind of uncomfortable, like getting into a cold swimming pool. But once you get over the initial shock and start moving around, it's not so bad.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#64

Post by ProjectArcturis »

shubb wrote: post #39
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should. So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale... What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product…

>One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should.

The dominant ideology in the US, at least until recently, is that there should be no central planning. The invisible hand of the market was all-knowing and would allocate resources far more efficiently than any human planner.

I wouldn't blame central planning, I'd blame the lack of it.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#65

Post by renewiltord »

It's interesting to see that, in the end, the domestic manufacturing guys were right but in a different way. The biggest blockers to America presently are ossified construction and manufacturing. Chip fabs delayed due to local red tape. Ammo factories cannot expand manufacturing because they are now historic buildings. Fascinating.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#67

Post by frognumber »

My question: As an American, why should I work in IC fabrication? I'm competing with low-cost Asians who set a cap on my salary. Work conditions, income, and everything else is worse than SWE.

I switched away from electronics early in my career, and it seems like a strict win.

As much as I believe in on-shoring, I'm not sure those issues can, will, or should be fixed.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#68

Post by ProjectArcturis »

gostsamo wrote: post #24

Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fabs will be. The author is conservative in judgments, but they ask a few questions worth considering, mainly: are the fabs big and efficient enough to offset the slower build, which is also more expensive, for lower volumes of production.

Profitability on the fab level is the wrong metric. Producing semiconductors, like producing vaccines, has large positive externalities. It enables basically the entire rest of the economy to function. These fabs could lose billions, kept alive by government subsidies, and still be a great deal for the country as a whole.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#69

Post by asow92 »

Spooky23 wrote: post #36
bob1029 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

It’s the worst business to work for. You’ll work 60 hours a week for shitty pay, and be the Yoda of some tool. In 10 years there will be a new magic tool. Then you start learning the Starbucks menu.

If you can't learn a new tool then you're just a tool yourself.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#70

Post by bee_rider »

gostsamo wrote: post #47
bee_rider wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most of us only can reply to the first paragraph or so, and the first plot, because of the paywall. So most of the conversation is about the headline.

there is an archive.is link posted in the comments and at least firefox has extensions for circumventing paywalls.

I think many people are just clicking on the main shared link, rather than using those tools.

For me personally—in general, I read the story that the author/publisher intentionally posted for public discussion. While it is possible to circumvent paywalls, I wouldn’t want to go against the will of the author and their publisher.

I think it is weird that we allow discussion of unauthorized copying of text here, but we don’t seem to allow (at least as far as I’ve seen) links for unauthorized copying of, say, movies or music.

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