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Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

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Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#61

Post by elpool2 »

In 2007 the question was "can Apple compete with other cell phone makers". The market for cell phones (even smart phones) was already well established, but Dvorak here says the iphone "will be passé within 3 months". What he didn't know is that Apple had made something far better than all the competition.

Now, with AR/VR I think the skeptics aren't saying Apple's product won't be good, but that even if it's the best product in the category there's still just not much of a market for it.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#62

Post by bobbylarrybobby »

henrikschroder wrote: post #22
wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

The “device” the vision pro replaces is the desk.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#63

Post by thunky »

felipellrocha wrote: post #51
henrikschroder wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

You are missing the point... The Apple Vision also attempts to solve a problem: Create a computing interface that interacts with the real world. Will it be successful? No one knows. Pretending that they do by either calling it a success or not a success this early is bound to be wrong.

> The Apple Vision also attempts to solve a problem: Create a computing interface that interacts with the real world.

You're not describing a problem though.

That's like saying:

"Mr Coffee designed a new coffee maker that attempts to solve a problem: it works underwater"

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#65

Post by JohnBooty »

henrikschroder wrote: post #15
i386 wrote: post #3

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

I agree. The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold. That's a solid market that Apple entered, and the iPhone brought obvious improvements over existing devices. Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, a full keyboard, in a small device. That was an existing pain-point, they solved it, everyone understood that this was the future of cell phones. In 2022, there were 20…

    Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, 
    a full keyboard, in a small device
I... find this a little revisionist and/or reductionist.

Yes, Apple did those things. I disagree that they only solved "pain points." They took the concept of a smartphone into a new direction by in many cases explicitly disregarding what the public wanted. I don't love the iPhone, actually. I wish it was open instead of closed. This is not meant as a defense of Apple per se but I feel you've got the history a bit wrong.

Generally speaking, folks did not want a large screen. A lot of people, particularly men, explicitly wanted the smallest phone possible.

Many "power users" were hardcore members of the Blackberry camp. They didn't really care about fancy screens. They wanted hardcore messaging devices geared toward people who needed to be in constant communication via text, email, etc.

There were also hacker types who wanted to use their phones as open software platforms, SSH terminals, etc.

Apple disregarded all of them and did something different. Love them or hate them they did a lot more than just "solve pain points."

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#66

Post by plutoh28 »

henrikschroder wrote: post #50
wenc wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume Apple is entering the VR market. I already think this is the wrong take. To me the market is still being discovered. There are many products whose business models are not what is apparent. We make category mistakes when we pigeonhole new products into known existing categories. Right off the bat for me the Vision Pro is a multi monitor replacement that you can travel with — that’s just the one thing that h…

> To me the market is still being discovered. The *WHOLE POINT* of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone *AS IF* the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction. "iPhone critics were wrong then, therefore Apple vision critics are wrong now" is *NOT AN ARGUMENT*. It's emotional manipulation where you are supposed to reminisce about the glorious smartphone revolution that Ap…

> The WHOLE POINT of this HN post is to poo-poo Dvorak's take on the iPhone AS IF the introduction of Apple Vision is comparable to the iPhone's introduction.

Not completely. This article is a great example of how meaningless unsubstantiated analysis is. The author makes a lot of anecdotal claims similar to the ones made regarding VR (“one time gimmick, a shelf decoration”)

I don’t think we’ve seen the complete potential of VR/AR technology and Im looking forward to see if Apple stepping in can normalize it.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#67

Post by i386 »

geon wrote: post #12
i386 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.

The keynote was certainly weird. It seems they imagine it being used to run regular 2d apps.

You know, I didn’t even think of that and it indeed is weird

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#68

Post by i386 »

dan-dan wrote: post #35
i386 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.

This puts screen real estate in your pocket/bag. Also gesture and eye control.

No one asked to do gesture and eye control. With the iPhone did want to check their email on the go tho and look at websites. That worked.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#69

Post by i386 »

coldcode wrote: post #27
mjamesaustin wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many analysts and pundits aren't acting like the jury's still out, though. Similarly to the iPhone, many who haven't touched it are reporting it DOA, even as some people are leaving actual demos with intensely positive reviews.

It's not out yet, anyway. Dismissing something that won't ship for another 8 months is not useful. The Dvorak article was likewise before shipping. I've heard this for everything Apple ever did since the Bondi iMac. I don't look at it as a headset but as a new kind of computer-like device with included display, and it's not even 1.0 yet. The cost seems crazy, but my Mac Studio+Display cost me more. If you think of it…

Maybe. This isn’t the Jobsian apple. This is the supply chain guys first product call. The jury is still out.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#70

Post by pornel »

josu wrote: post #26

>In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc. Even the closing sentence is funny; consolidated into bankruptcy. But hey, at least the article is consistent in getting everything wrong.

He's probably a decent analyst, and intentionally writes the exact opposite for clicks.

It's hard to be so wrong 100% of the time.

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