Sooner or later we'll have to pull Facebook out of FAANG. Nvidia seems like a worthy replacement.
How are salaries at Nvidia?
Nvidia is now a $1T company
61–70 of 124 posts
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
TSMC is at risk due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the USA. These risks led to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway selling its stake in TSMC. Investors are worried about that. That s my best guess. Apple also opened three factories in India and other places to mitigate this risk.
Well NVIDIA depends entirely on TSMC
> Well NVIDIA depends entirely on TSMC
Yes and no. If NVIDIA loses access to TSMC due to geopolitical events, presumedly their competitors do too. There might be a couple years where they face increased competition from their own used market if they're unable to produce chis competitive with the previous generations', but at some point Samsung et. al. will catch up on capability and capacity, and NVIDIA will be as well positioned relative to their competitors to take advantage of that as they are today. The only case where this would be significantly different is if one of NVIDIA's major competitors was independent of TSMC and thus could use the lean times for NVIDIA to leapfrog them; but that would require considering Intel a real competitor.
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#63Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
TSMC is at risk due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the USA. These risks led to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway selling its stake in TSMC. Investors are worried about that. That s my best guess. Apple also opened three factories in India and other places to mitigate this risk.
Apple factories in India don’t lower their dependency on TSMC
Yeah but it does lower the dependency on Taiwan, with is the T in TSMC.
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are there betting odds anywhere for regime change/invasion of Taiwan? I would put it as ~1% per year right now, but perhaps other investors see it differently.
If you believe that Taiwan has a 1% chance of being invaded per year and that this event would remove your ownership then the long term value of purchasing this stock is negative
Exactly
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#66I've sold my stock, so it will obviously keep going higher. That being said, I don't see how it's a sustainable price, it has massive P/E and Price to Sales ratio. In the past when a stock finally hits the $1 or $2 trillion mark the stock will give it up relatively quickly before it finally reclaims it for good. AI is the new "blockchain" in terms of the level of hype it is getting where every company now can mention it and get a 5% jump in their stock price, to me that means we're getting closer to a saturation in the hype.
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
The very real possibility of them being the prize in a war between superpowers has to figure into that price…
Fabs get blown up in any Taiwan invasion by the losing side whoever it will be. The only way to win is not to play.
China is counting on the US and India, et al, pushing for fabs elsewhere.
Once the fabs are out, there is less impetus for the US (plus Korea, Japan, etc.) to put a lot on the line to save Taiwan.
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
This seems inaccurate. If China will invade (at least 50%), they will definitely do so in the next 10 years or so. So a reasonable guess based on that assumption would be ~6.5% per year.
Based on what? This sounds like you just pulling numbers out of the air, in which case 1% vs. 6.5% means comparatively nothing. And what makes you so sure that if China invades Taiwan they would definitely do it by 2033, and there's a 0% chance it'd happen in 2034? I'm not trying to be [overly] pedantic but HN is littered with comments basically just making shit up in a language of confidence and precision.
I believe Xi Jinping has said something to the effect of "Taiwan should be a part of China by the end of this decade," although I'm having a hard time pinning down the exact quote. Although it should also be noted that Xi also tends to emphasize his desire to see Taiwan unified peacefully rather than force, so it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification.
As you say, 1% versus 6.5% is a level of precision that isn't helpful. The way I prefer to think of it is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is sufficiently probable as to warrant making contingency plans for such an event, but not so probable as to warrant making active efforts to avoid Taiwan.
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#69It may continue up to 1.25T or so, but the current price is absurdly overvalued at 37x sales. Even with the stellar guidance they gave, at best, the company is worth 0.5T. It may not go down that much, but folks buying here for the long term are in for disappointment.
Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company
#70Wow, 213x P/E ratio. To put this into context with other large tech companies: P/E MARKET CAP Salesforce 1,036x $0.2T AMD 519x $0.2T NVIDIA 213x $1.0T Amazon 293x $1.25T Microsoft 35x $2.4T Meta/FB 33x $0.7T Apple 30x $2.7T Google 27x $1.5T TSMC 16x $0.4T Samsung 10x $0.3T EDIT: "P/E" ratio is the Market Cap "Price" / Earnings the company generates. E.g. Samsung is generating $30B in earnings (not revenue, earnings),…
Price to sales is a more telling comparison here. P/E can appear arbitrarily high/low depending on what the company is optimizing for. A realistic "terminal margin" is pretty similar between like-kind businesses, so you can somewhat assume what it will be in the long run and apply that to projected revenues. Price to Sales: (TTM revenues) NVDA: 37x AMD: 8x TSLA: 8x TSM: 7x AAPL: 7x GOOG: 6x QCOM: 3x
Price to FCF (Free cash flow) is even better.