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Germany Falls into Recession

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Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#61
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are adjustable-rate mortgages common in Germany?

They are normal basically everywhere but USA I think.

They were normal for a long time in the US, took a backseat from 2009-2014 or so and are back again.

I'm really shocked whenever I hear someone has an ARM again. 2008 wasn't that long ago!

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

Interest rate guarantees last anywhere from 1 to 25 years. That means that in any given year, it is a pretty small chunk of the housing market which will see a change in rates. Overall, that has a significant damping effect on the effects of changing interest rates.

Maybe in your country. In mine (Canada) even fixed rate mortgages are rarely locked in beyond 5 years, so every mortgage holder will be getting a notable bump in costs in the next few years if rates don't moderate again. In many cases, their servicing rates had 40ish% increases so it's not immaterial.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If things continue, in 5-10 years, dollars will be worth 50 cents, and it should be MUCH easier to pay your mortgage. And, I'll eat my hat if we don't get back to ZIRP sometime in the next 10 years.

That's not going to happen, salaries are depressed and are not keeping up with inflation by a large margin.

Everyone freaked out about rising wages because they saw fast-food worker "we're hiring" signs offering $17/hr... meanwhile the $20/hr worker nearby saw a 1.5% COL raise in a 10+% inflation environment (and higher inflation on the cost of things that actually matter).

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#64
post #18

Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

Isn't this even worse for the banks? Like they're stuck with a whole bunch of mortgages on properties that can't be sold and where the owners are on the brink of defaulting on their loans? Feels like a house of cards that would topple over very easily.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#65
China is outcompeting Germany as a manufacturer of high value goods, particularly cars [1][2]. Last year it overtook Germany as the second biggest car exporter. In the first three months of this year, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's top car exporter for the first time. This is due to its strength in EVs (while Germany's strength is in ICEs). Volkswagen holds a 2% share of the Chinese EV market while the Chinese BYD dominates with 40% (Tesla in second at 10%) [3]. It won't be long until Europe imports more cars from China than China imports cars from Europe. If you had said this only a few years ago most Europeans would have laughed in disbelief.

With a world moving away from ICE to EV, and with Chinese brands winning at home and abroad, it presents a double whammy nightmare for Germany. Lowered exports to China, plus lowered exports in other markets. And this is all on top of energy prices from the fallout of the conflict in Ukraine, the shut down of nuclear power thanks to the Greens and the geopolitical tensions between the West and China.

While Germany's economic model has served it well during an era of a rising China, it may not be the case in a era of a risen China.

[1] China’s carmakers outstrip foreign brands in its electric vehicle boom https://www.ft.com/content/dd149923-1c5d-4e5e-8be6-d979aa48a...

[2] Big drop in German exports to China raises fears over EU’s economic powerhouse https://www.ft.com/content/3034d39c-118a-44d3-b9bf-6482b7860...

[3] Can Volkswagen win back China? https://www.ft.com/content/afad4566-6404-483e-934f-c905507bf...

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#66
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

Are adjustable-rate mortgages common in Germany?

In Germany it is common to have a fixed rate for 10 years or so. Sometimes you get only 5 years fixed, sometimes 15. After that, you either accept the new rate on the existing contract, or refinance somewhere else (if cheaper with the new rate and fees).

There are mortgages with yearly adjustments, but those are rare afaik.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#67

They shouldn't be shutting down nuclear. Build more nuclear reactors. That will provide more clean energy and a lot of jobs. Modernize the grid. Make it a smarter grid that is more resilient to harm. These projects pay for themselves quickly and are easy to finance with how much wealth Germany has.

It needs a recession first though. Unless they manage to "wash-off" all the idiots, solutions that attempt to walk on hands will persist.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#68
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The energy cost might be the cause of that interest rate though.

Not from what I know. The high energy costs are due to a effective and possible felt scarcity which occured at the beginning of the war in Ucraine. The energy companies are now planing to reduce the costs with as much as 25% from next month, since the marked is now flooded with gas and renewables ( a lof of new wind parks and solar installation will go online the next month ). I honestly I do not know why the interes…

Energy price -> inflation -> central bank raises rates to cause recession [ -> reduced wage/price feedback loop -> reduced inflation ]

The part in square brackets is yet to come.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#69
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not getting poorer nor is inflation still out of control

> The US is not getting poorer then why am I being asked to bail out a generation's college loans? then why is food bank use at an all time high? then why are more six-figure earners reporting to be living paycheck-to-paycheck? then why is personal credit card debt at an all time high?

> then why am I being asked to bail out a generation's college loans?

Because handing out money tend to give votes.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#70

They shouldn't be shutting down nuclear. Build more nuclear reactors. That will provide more clean energy and a lot of jobs. Modernize the grid. Make it a smarter grid that is more resilient to harm. These projects pay for themselves quickly and are easy to finance with how much wealth Germany has.

There's no way that's gonna happen unfortunately. The greens have absolutely dropped the ball in terms of big picture goals. We've been brainwashed into thinking nuclear power is dangerous and the problem of waste is bigger than the problem of having non renewable, oil based, energy. In hindsight I wouldn't be surprised if the oil lobby had a hand in that.
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