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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#61

Post by burkaman »

Retric wrote: post #18
Rygian wrote: post #8

For anyone interested in what 1.5C represents, I can't recommend enough the Climate Fresk [1] exercise. It's not just the droughts and floods, the heatwaves, the changes in birds, insects, crop yields, … Include permafrost melting and releasing greenhouse gasses, civil unrest in populated areas that won't be livable anymore, unstable food production, and quite a few other causes and consequences. It's a feedback loop…

Overstating impact is detrimental to the cause. > decimated 1.5C will be bad, but it won’t directly kill 800+ million people in a short timeframe. People simply don’t respond to harm spread across 100 years the way they react to harm concentrated into a few large events.

Was the parent comment edited? I don't understand who you're responding to, nobody here or in the article or report made that claim.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#62

Post by shrubble »

So, does this apply to China, which is burning more coal than ever?

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe. Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once.”

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#63

Post by hilbert42 »

Tragically, they're wasting their time. Experience has shown that such IPCC preaching is like telling the world to stop using Facebook and Google because tech giants spy on users and sell their data.

Everyone knows that and most don't like it but their addiction is too great to make the necessary lifestyle changes to quit.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#64

Post by burkaman »

kypro wrote: post #59

Assume we hit 1.5C and "nothing happens" does this help the cause? While I'm very concerned about how unchecked climate change could impact future crop yields I also worry that having a hard line like this probably won't help convince anyone, and could counter intuitively act as a "I told you so" for climate denialists when the world doesn't fall apart as soon as we hit 1.5C. A lot of the more convincing arguments I…

Can you quote something from the report that you feel was overly emotional?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#65

Post by prottog »

Rygian wrote: post #10
zpeti wrote: post #4

[flagged]

"Economic growth" is probably a bad indicator to follow. I would rather follow "number of excess death directly or indirectly linked to climate change." I don't know if that can be calculated somewhere.

And who will follow the number of excess lives that were enabled by the deployment of cheap (and yes, dirty) fossil fuel energy among the global poor? These decisions aren't made in a vacuum. We must weigh the costs and the benefits.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#66

Post by timr »

burkaman wrote: post #61
Retric wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overstating impact is detrimental to the cause. > decimated 1.5C will be bad, but it won’t directly kill 800+ million people in a short timeframe. People simply don’t respond to harm spread across 100 years the way they react to harm concentrated into a few large events.

Was the parent comment edited? I don't understand who you're responding to, nobody here or in the article or report made that claim.

I don't know, but this:

> The next natural equilibrium probably includes a decimated world population.

Is obvious speculation and likely hyperbole.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#68

Post by ch4s3 »

PurpleRamen wrote: post #54
ch4s3 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should they take down those signs? I would personally prefer for things like that to stay up with contextualization about how scientific understanding has changed and why the prediction was wrong.

The predictions were not wrong. Society changed, people reacted to Greta and others, and that changed the situation, and thus the predictions. The Pandemia and pausing industries on a global scale did their own share. And as sad as it is, the war in Ukraine was finally a massive boost for changes in Europe's energy-infrastructure. People previously thought it would take decades, what now is finished in some years. Th…

Is that true? And assuming it is, the model was still wrong as an assumption of business as usual is part of that model. But I don't see how any of that could have prevented a glacier from melting by 2023 or the world from being "doomed" by 2018.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#69

Post by johnnymorgan »

thwayunion wrote: post #40
toxik wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I always find so hard to believe is that, knowing how well we can predict weather and other complicated systems, climate change science somehow is able to make 1/10 centigrade precision predictions on time horizons of decades and centuries.

If climate models were predicting the temperature of your city on March 21, 2120 then your intuition here would be wise. But that is not at all what these models are predicting. They are predicting global average annual temperatures and other gross, planet-scale statistics. "Average annual global temperature in a given year" and "temperature in my city tomorrow" are fundamentally very different types of predictions.…

The point he is making is the disconnect between models and reality.

Also when are people held accountable for their models being wrong and the output that comes from that.

Climate models has a terrible track record and have failed to materialize over and over again.

We have environmental crises all over the place which we should be focused on. The two are not the same thing and climate activism seems to not care about that at all, ie the issue of EVs and their super non green batteries or the near slave labor in terrible conditions resource extraction.

There is a good reason to be skeptical of the regulations derived from these models when they are wrong all the time.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#70

Post by numbers_guy »

kypro wrote: post #59

Assume we hit 1.5C and "nothing happens" does this help the cause? While I'm very concerned about how unchecked climate change could impact future crop yields I also worry that having a hard line like this probably won't help convince anyone, and could counter intuitively act as a "I told you so" for climate denialists when the world doesn't fall apart as soon as we hit 1.5C. A lot of the more convincing arguments I…

What the fuck do you even mean with "nothing happens", when the climate has been changing noticeably for the past decade already?
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