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An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

circle.com

61–70 of 204 posts

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#61
post #24
post #6

23% of the reserve, or $9.7B is held in cash. I think on Thursday, SVB saw cash outflow requests over $40b in one day. USDC peg is so far below 1 right now there will definitely be a lot of par arbitrage Monday trying to withdraw. Hopefully it doesn’t take longer than a day for them to settle treasury trades, and maybe some people have lost the keys to their crypto. They could also possibly have a line of credit with…

Can one short USDC with leverage?

Yes, and I have been, by accident! I borrowed USDC on Compound.finance a while ago, using wrapped bitcoin as collateral and the loan remains open. I was intending to just extract some equity from my BTC without selling it, not profit from crashes, but that effectively gives me a short position since I benefit from USDC being easier to buy and thus settle my debt.

Last night I bought at a ~6% discount on Gemini.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hence the government protection should be partial. Mostly just making sure SVB's assets are used to lessen the impact of the closure. If that results in Circle getting pennies on the dollar then so be it.

> Mostly just making sure SVB's assets are used to lessen the impact of the closure That's standard practice. Money from liquidation goes first to insured deposits, then what remains goes to uninsured deposits, then to pay other debts, and finally if anything is left, to shareholders. Looks like here it will only cover insured deposits and substantial fraction of uninsured deposits.

Yeah, some think that substantial fraction will be 100%. We'll see!

I don't want to give Circle one cent of bailout money, though. And their post is saying that they are owed a full bailout because they participated in the bank run on the day of the bank run, and also begging for a full bailout. Pretty pathetic.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#64
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no fee to covert USDC to USD. So as long as you buying USDC and depositing it into Circle is less than $1 per USDC you make profit. As long as you make profit it makes sense to arbitrage as much as you can.

that’s if you have a Circle account which effectively no individual has access to. if you convert USDC to USD on Coinbase or another exchange you’re paying the market rate

Coinbase actually does it 1:1 by proxy from Circle: you don't have to "trade" USDC-USD. They aren't right now, but they normally go above and beyond by being willing to do it on weekends, while Circle itself only operates on weekdays, and they don't want to stake their own fate towards that, so they said they are pausing doing that until Monday.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#65
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can one short USDC with leverage?

Short? I can't see this not returning to it's peg by the next news cycle. It's free money. SVB went bankrupt - as a business: it can't pay its bills. People are reacting to this as if the deposits have vanished entirely. If you think USDC is a shorting opportunity, short anything crypto. USDC is literally the second largest domino.

There is good chance that ~30% of deposits above 250k vanished. SVB really screwed up on trades. With equity at zero or close to zero, there is no backstop. Net present value of 2% securities that SVB loaded on is way below par.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#66
post #24
post #6

23% of the reserve, or $9.7B is held in cash. I think on Thursday, SVB saw cash outflow requests over $40b in one day. USDC peg is so far below 1 right now there will definitely be a lot of par arbitrage Monday trying to withdraw. Hopefully it doesn’t take longer than a day for them to settle treasury trades, and maybe some people have lost the keys to their crypto. They could also possibly have a line of credit with…

Can one short USDC with leverage?

Yep, get a loan denominated in USDC. You can lever up in USDC and buy USDT with it.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#68

I’m not very knowledgeable on this topic, so I have a legit question about all of this: How is pausing withdrawals not blatant currency manipulation? If I had USDC and lost all faith in it yesterday, shouldn’t I be allowed to cash out today? Also, if they’ve got many billions in cash, why would losing access to a sliver of it justify shutting down withdrawals? “Trust us, it’s worth a dollar! Or don’t trust us! It doe…

One could ask whether halting trading of a stock is manipulation or not.

Some risks arise mostly out of urgency, and not having countermeasures could have catastrophic results which otherwise would have been avoided by pausing the process. If Circle were operating as a fractional reserve bank where it borrowed from you by virtue of a positive bank balance, lent me 80% of that, and only kept 20%; pausing honouring withdrawals would likely be illegal.

My view of this is that it's unrealistic to expect a company to store 100% of its assets in immediately avaialable deposits whereas international regulations that apply to banks require ~30 days of liquid supply.

In this case, the legal contract between Circle and its depositors (holders of USDC) is that it'll exchange 1:1.

intrinsically, Circle seems to demonstrate that this contract isn't yet broken, but they can't continue to honour that agreement over a weekend when there's uncertainty of which avenue those funds will come from.

The selling pressure is purely from the secondary market where you're selling me USDC and I'm giving you 0.95 USD.

> Also, if they’ve got many billions in cash, why would losing access to a sliver of it justify shutting down withdrawals?

Because those billions are in T-bills that have to first be sold. And the "cash on hand" is ultimately with banks that are holding a fraction of it.

> “Trust us, it’s worth a dollar! Or don’t trust us! It doesn’t matter because you don’t have any choice but to hold USDC until we deem it advantageous to us to allow you to exchange them for real money!”

Well, "we're enabling redemption on Monday" doesn't equate to the above.

If my pastry shop runs out of already baked goods during the AM peak, I can only ask my customers to wait for me to finish baking more. If there was a pastry regulation, its review would say that I should start baking more pastries in future.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#69

I’m not very knowledgeable on this topic, so I have a legit question about all of this: How is pausing withdrawals not blatant currency manipulation? If I had USDC and lost all faith in it yesterday, shouldn’t I be allowed to cash out today? Also, if they’ve got many billions in cash, why would losing access to a sliver of it justify shutting down withdrawals? “Trust us, it’s worth a dollar! Or don’t trust us! It doe…

They didn't pause anything. The US banks did, by not working in the weekend (for large sums).

If you had 1 billion USD with your favorite US bank, that would be paused too right now.

Re: An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank

#70
post #11
post #5

What they don't bring up. The peg is a lie, hit $0.87. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/11/stablecoin-usdc-breaks-dolla...

The peg is held up by the belief that you can always get 1 USD for 1 USDC. Obviously the market had some doubts about this today and then liquidity issues drove the price down. I'm somewhat surprised that it climbed back up this fast which means that the panic seems to be over (for the moment).

For something that’s supposed to be a 1:1 peg, running at 4% below dollar value is significant.
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