A runner who leads every pack and then vanishes

As a [semi-serious] road cyclist and occasional racer, this reminds me of the duty of "domestiques" on cycling teams.

It's probably more obvious to this crowd than to the general population, but I'll say: because most of a cyclist's energy is spent fighting air resistance, (road) cycling as a sport is almost entirely about drag management and drafting other cyclists. That's also what makes it a team sport. Riding right behind someone ("on their wheel") in the right circumstances can save ~25-40% energy, and riding in the middle of a well-developed pack can save quite a lot more.

This is very back-of-napkin, in the real world of course varies with many factors: because drag is a square of velocity, this is exceedingly relevant on fast and flat courses but almost totally unimportant at the low speeds of climbs, and of course wind direction influences the outcome greatly, etc. But this is why you see pros riding within inches of each other's wheels. Whether you're trying to stay with foes or are being carried along by friends, you're trying to save energy and avoid being out in the wind.

What you see when you watch your local criterium, or the Tour de France, is teams trying to shield their sprinter from the wind to conserve energy ("save their legs for the sprint"). There are lots of things one can do along the way, from sabotaging other teams' efforts to do the same, to breakaways, etc. But that's the basic idea. Your local group ride of experienced folks isn't too different; they'll generally run "pacelines" and rotate on/off the front, taking turns sharing the workload of pile-driving into the wind ("pulling"), and move everyone along much faster as a result. It's a skill, but when you learn to do it well and have the choreography down, you can ride your bike silly fast. Technique matters at least as much as power.

90% of the people in the TdF are unsung heroes, aren't there to win. It's only natural to assume that the people on the front are winning the race, but, in view of the energy budget in the above theory, they're not. Outside of the last 200 metres or so, anyone on the front of the pack is definitely not winning, and would never win that way. They're working hard for someone else. And for most of them, that's their career right there.

Not necessarily! Leading is more tiring, especially at a fast pace. Even if you are the fastest athlete in the field, and know it, you can still lose by wearing yourself out at the front. So for some runners it's as you say, but for the top few athletes it can be more like "my margin of superiority isn't sufficient to pay the cost of leading a fast race". (Some made-up numbers. Suppose you're 1 second faster than the second-best runner under ideal conditions, but you lose 1.5 seconds by leading. Result: you lose by half a second.) Which is in fact why pacemakers are employed at so many non-championship races, it solves the problem of people thinking "if I push the pace at the front I may pull everyone to a faster time (including myself), but sacrifice place" that leads to results like what you saw in 2016.

That doesn't mean everyone played their hand well in 2016 - clearly they didn't. By the way, check out Centrowitz's little shimmy at maybe 450m to go/2:50 in that race - he made sure to be in front when it got going, that's what makes his run brilliant and not just lucky.

For real examples of leading being a cost in a fast race, see the most recent two major championships - worlds 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcRrBYx2XG8 and the Olympic final of 2020/21 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=us9bM_WGYlY. Both are really fast as championships go, and in both the leader for much of the race loses. Would they still have lost if someone else had been in front? ...Maybe. But I think it would've been closer.

> 4:30/mile pace is faster than all but the fastest amateur runners

The article is talking about middle distance running, typically 800m-3000m, not long-distance running. 1s/400m is actually pretty huge in competition.

> you'd be liable to kick each other.

Front-to-back contact happens sometimes, even in professional races.

I was once motorcycle touring in the Wyoming/Utah/Colorado area with a friend who was riding an old, carbureted Suzuki dual sport that struggled with power at altitude. We found we could significantly increase its top speed and fuel range by drafting it off the "bubble" created by my bike's panniers. Inside the bubble was like the eye of a storm.

Stop eating carbs about 2 months before. I did this and went from a 2:06 to 1:58 with minimal training. My body carried several kg less weight and felt like it could consume its own fat energy more efficiently and I didn’t get the 2/3 slump.

I also started last, ran down the 2hr pace guy, then tried to stay 100m ahead of him. It felt primal being chased down by somebody and kept the mind sharp.