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What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

practical.engineering

61–70 of 259 posts

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#61
It's interesting to try to game out who might be motivated to commit to an attack like this, at the (small compared to the state or country) scale it was at.

I think we can rule out any kind of state actor, even if they were acting through a proxy. The risk/reward just isn't there, and this is not a hard attack to plan, so there's no point in carrying out a "test". If the goal were to send a message, well, this just isn't going to cut it. The US military will crush you regardless of the status of a power substation in North Carolina.

However, it could easily have been done by someone with a political agenda in favor of a state actor but not in any way endorsed by them, or by someone with a general political motive. Here's the catch with that: For such a person, there is no point to doing this unless you later claim responsibility and gain notoriety. If your goal is ideological, you'd use the chaos you created to try to spread your ideology. If your goal is to have your demands heard, well, you'd have to make those demands first. (Of course, it could be the attackers meant to do that but chickened out when they saw what an overwhelming response this provoked, or something).

It's possible somebody did it by accident or because they are mentally unstable and their dog told them to, etc. Can never discount that. However, I think the most likely explanation is actually that this is a criminal act that was done with some only proximately related goal in mind - blackmailing an energy executive? Stealing something of value from somewhere in the area of attack? Distract authorities while conducting some other illicit behavior somewhere - like a break-in to some other piece of infrastructure - for whatever reason?

Hopefully we find out someday. (And I mean, hopefully we stop this stuff from happening, but that is gonna take some doing.)

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#62
post #5

"Officials have stopped short of calling it an act of terrorism, presumably because we don’t know the motive of whoever perpetrated the act" There was another one elsewhere [Washington state [1]] and they found out the perps did it to facilitate knocking over some business of some sort. So, just because it quacks like a duck does not mean it either walks like a duck nor end ends up being a duck. There have also been…

For what it's worth, the guns found with the suspects from the WA state attacks look like the typical trash/stolen firearms you'd see in a meth lab, and the suspects have lengthy criminal records for burglary, theft, petty drug offenses etc.

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#63
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Terrorism has a specific meaning. All these are what one would call sabotage. It would be terrorism if the saboteurs disabled the substations in support of an attack terrorizing civilians. Example, they shoot up a substation so that police are unable to respond to a siege on some government agency or a hostage situation at a bank.

You can absolutely sabotage as a terrorist though. They aren't mutually exclusive.

Damaging property if the motives and outcome align with what we consider terrorism is terrorism.

But the meaning of terrorism is rather vague, and broad.

If I blow up a substation and it causes blackouts and chaos, that can be terrorism.

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#64
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Terrorism has a specific meaning. All these are what one would call sabotage. It would be terrorism if the saboteurs disabled the substations in support of an attack terrorizing civilians. Example, they shoot up a substation so that police are unable to respond to a siege on some government agency or a hostage situation at a bank.

The attack on infrastructure itself could constitute terrorism, if the infrastructure attack was intended to scare or intimidate the public to achieve some political objective.

Wiktionary's definition of terrorism includes attacks against property: "The use of unlawful violence against people or property to achieve political objectives."

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/terrorism

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#66

It's interesting to try to game out who might be motivated to commit to an attack like this, at the (small compared to the state or country) scale it was at. I think we can rule out any kind of state actor, even if they were acting through a proxy. The risk/reward just isn't there, and this is not a hard attack to plan, so there's no point in carrying out a "test". If the goal were to send a message, well, this just…

> If the goal were to send a message, well, this just isn't going to cut it. The US military will crush you regardless of the status of a power substation in North Carolina.

Like they crushed Iraq for 9/11?

Finding and crushing someone is easy, finding an actually guilty party that cannot be found is not so easy.

Who knows what this is, but some people can see the strategic significance of it.

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#67
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding the sabotage in Washington State, it doesn't make a lot of sense to attack four substations simultaneously just to steal from the cash register of a small business. If I fancied myself to be an antigovernment militia leader who had read all the white supremacist literature from the last 40 years that repeatedly describes attacking critical infrastructure like pipelines, telecoms and electricity pylons and s…

Imagine writing this unhinged mental fanfiction for every news article you read. Headline: Man Steals Car "Well, if I fancied myself a racewar enthusiast of course I would _say_ it was for money but it would obviously be in support of creating chaos and undermining the government institutions to allow for our brothers to rise against".

The economic incentive for stealing a car is a lot more obvious and mundane than attacking the power grid. It's not unreasonable to second guess (or is it first guess?) the motive in that context.

It's pretty obvious when you compare the number of annual car thefts to the number of attacks on substations. This is an unusual event, it may have an unusual explanation.

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#68
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Terrorism has a specific meaning. All these are what one would call sabotage. It would be terrorism if the saboteurs disabled the substations in support of an attack terrorizing civilians. Example, they shoot up a substation so that police are unable to respond to a siege on some government agency or a hostage situation at a bank.

Doesn't have to target civilians.

> Terrorism Definitions

> International terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups who are inspired by, or associated with, designated foreign terrorist organizations or nations (state-sponsored).

> Domestic terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals stemming from domestic influences, such as those of a political, religious, social, racial, or environmental nature.

Source: https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/terrorism

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#69
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Terrorism has a specific meaning. All these are what one would call sabotage. It would be terrorism if the saboteurs disabled the substations in support of an attack terrorizing civilians. Example, they shoot up a substation so that police are unable to respond to a siege on some government agency or a hostage situation at a bank.

The attack on infrastructure itself could constitute terrorism, if the infrastructure attack was intended to scare or intimidate the public to achieve some political objective. Wiktionary's definition of terrorism includes attacks against property: "The use of unlawful violence against people or property to achieve political objectives." https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/terrorism

I don't completely agree with that definition. A bank robber may briefly instill terror to the people in the bank, but it's not an act of terror. However, if it's committed by a group (like the Hearst heir) then because it's in support of further activities, I would classify it as terrorism.

Often, governments, (not just the US but in general) use the term in order to enlist more sympathy from disinterested civilians in order to add support for government response and also to curb sympathy for the group or individuals. So protesters in Belarus or China, etc, they get labeled terrorists.

Re: What happened with the substation attack in North Carolina?

#70
In hindsight, I should have guessed they targeted the oil.

An acquaintance of mine worked in glass applications for electrical systems. Truly fascinating stuff; they combine the materials science of glass with the chemistry of the oil to make for very high-current fuses. The oil acts as a very good thermal conductor, but at too high a current, it expands and puts pressure against the glass insulator it's contained in. Once the pressure is high enough, the glass explodes and rapidly mechanically separates the conductors. Tolerances have to be extremely tight on both the glass thickness and the oil consistency to get the desired effect, and there's no way to test except destructively, so the process has to be extremely repeatable.

... but of course, oil-filled components are vulnerable to a few bullets.

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