My biggest issue with this whole situation, is that the user gets a better UX with no encryption whatsoever on a http:// site than a self-signed or expired cert on https:// . I know all the stories about MITM attacks, but the fact is, it is still MUCH easier to accidentally or purposefully log unencrypted http:// traffic in a passive manner than it is to actively spoof a HTTPS:// connection. Especially for local LANs…
I think that's a well-acknowledged issue but those who disagree on less-severe expiry warnings would simply argue here that it would be preferable to be strict in both cases and that the lax approach to http:// is just legacy baggage we should work toward getting rid of.
Personally, I'm a little on the fence. The expiry UX could definitely be "improved" (made more helpful) without making it more lax. Another thing to consider is that going from lax to strict is MUCH MUCH harder than going from strict to lax, so easing severity now would make it difficult to undo that change later.