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California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#61
post #43

Moved from the bay to Texas because of everything i heard. It was such a horrible experience. The heat, the bugs, the lack of density. So few days of good weather. Maybe worth it to some, but a bigger house was not worth it to me at all. We moved back in 6 months. So many people want to live in California which causes more issues

Sounds like me! I'm moving back to CA after ~2 years in Dallas. I didn't hate Dallas, but my fiancee does. But yeah the weather is awful: 115 degree summers, below-freezing winters.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#62

People are doing the math. If you make enough money in California you pay 10% of your income in taxes. First of all, what do you get from that 10% you pay that don't get in other states with lower or no income taxes? For the people paying the taxes the answer is not much. People also fail to account for the fact that the 10% they are paying is 10% of their GROSS income, not net after federal taxes. So if you are alre…

The problem is that there is nowhere near as many SWE jobs in other states as in Bay Area. I just moved to the Bay from Munich and I miss Germany a lot, but the career opportunities are here in California. Admittedly, I don’t enjoy my life as much as I did in Munich where I could walk, cycle and enjoy great city life. However, I knew all that before I moved here and it was a calculated decision: the career opportunities I have here are way better than anywhere in the world. If I could live somewhere else and take the career prospects with me, I would definitely consider it. But remote work is not as available as people predicted and IMO it also takes away from the ability to grow in the company in many ways.

Yea, California is overpriced and has many problems, but if one saves here enough then moving anywhere with plenty of savings is very comfortable in the future. There’s nothing wrong with willing to live in other places but there’s a good reason people move to California.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#63

Not surprising when you look at California's home prices. The median home sold from Marin County to Santa Clara County is $1M+. That's the same land mass as from Times Square to the Maryland border. https://twitter.com/nextdoorsv/status/1440035534693232640 California is NIMBYism at its worst: the far left opposes more housing, the far right opposes more housing, and the center is sick of traffic from more housing.

the far left opposes more housing

Not true at all. The far left objects to gentrification, where the supply of housing nominally increases but prices continue to go higher. Short-term rentals and properties being kept vacant for land speculation are two factors. The far left hates landlords and property speculators, for more or less the same reasons Adam Smith did.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#64

California is a great state in many ways, but it'd be a stretch to say it's even half assed a solution to its housing problem: they've quarter assed it at most. And it does someone no good for a state to be great in many ways if they can't afford to live there. The situation has been dire for some time, but all they do are small incremental steps towards building more housing, it's nowhere close to what's necessary.…

Well they did just pass a bunch of laws last year to upzone the whole state, crush NIMBY zoning BS and lower permitting requirements for dense development near transit stops. Builder’s remedy is already being applied against NIMBY communities like Santa Monica and Redondo beach, no take backs. It takes time to build the homes and see the impact but it’s hard to say that they’re not moving strongly in the right direct…

> Well they did just pass a bunch of laws last year to upzone the whole state

Have you seen the particulars of that law that upzoned the state? It's actually extremely weak:

"* Benefits homeowners NOT institutional investors. Recent amendments require a local agency to impose an owner occupancy requirement as a condition of a homeowner receiving a ministerial lot split. This bill also prohibits the development of small subdivisions and prohibits ministerial lot splits on adjacent parcels by the same individual to prevent investor speculation. In fact, allowing for more neighborhood scale housing in California’s communities actually curbs the market power of institutional investors. SB 9 prevents profiteers from evicting or displacing tenants by excluding properties where a tenant has resided in the past three years."

Translation: will be used only sparingly, because it's illegal to do it with a standard case of a corporation replacing existing housing with more housing. How many owner occupiers are interested in this and can afford this kind of redevelopment?

"Respects local control. Homeowners must comply with local zoning requirements when developing a duplex (height, floor area ratios, lot coverage etc.) as long as they do not physically preclude a lot split or duplex. This bill also allows locals to require a percolation test for any duplex proposed to be on septic tanks."

Translation: still lets local NIMBYs restrict density.

"It takes time to build the homes and see the impact but it’s hard to say that they’re not moving strongly in the right direction."

It's the right direction yes, but as you say, it's the kind of thing that should've been the response to the much weaker housing crisis of 20-30 years ago, not the much more serious one now.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#65
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing wrong with decreasing population, but when your richest citizens are leaving, and poor migrants are coming in, then you start having fiscal problems, particularly for a state that has decided to fund itself with income and sales taxes rather than property taxes. Another reason why property tax is a more stable funding source -- unlike income, you can't take it with you. There is a whole list of reforms that C…

> when your richest citizens are leaving But the article says "a majority" of those leaving were middle- or low-income people.

A "majority" of any sizeable group is not going to be rich. What is important for fiscal impact is that the rich are leaving, not that other people are also leaving.

If you want to see data, we can look at IRS data:

"New York’s tax base shrank by $19.5 billion while California lost $17.8 billion as a result of workers fleeing those states during a time when lockdown measures allowed employees to work remotely, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Other high-tax jurisdictions such as Illinois ($8.5 billion); Massachusetts ($2.6 billion); New Jersey ($2.3 billion); and Maryland ($1.9 billion) also saw an exodus of workers during 2020.

The states that reaped the benefits of the “wealth migration” include Florida, which gained an additional $23.7 billion in gross income; Texas, which gained $6.3 billion; Arizona, which took in $4.8 billion more; North Carolina ($3.8 billion); South Carolina ($3.6 billion); and Tennessee ($2.6 billion)."[1]

[1] https://nypost.com/2022/06/06/ny-cali-biggest-losers-as-weal...

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#66
Please don't editorialize titles. The submitted title ("340k people moved out of CA in 2022, most of any state") was misleading, as hellisothers pointed out (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34119430).

"Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." - https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

If you want to say what you think is important about an article, that's fine, but do it by adding a comment to the thread. Then your view will be on a level playing field with everyone else's: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#67
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a problem to me, that's the point. By saying I am a part of the problem, what you really mean is that my views are an obstacle to you getting what you want.

[flagged]

> Most of us aren't even asking you to do anything or pay higher taxes - just stop screwing it up for everyone whose income isn't as big as yours

It's true people don't have to "do" anything, but they are still affected by QOL decline: increase in traffic, not enough parking, schools get crowded, everything gets crowded, etc. So it's not a no-op.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#68
post #20

California is a great state in many ways, but it'd be a stretch to say it's even half assed a solution to its housing problem: they've quarter assed it at most. And it does someone no good for a state to be great in many ways if they can't afford to live there. The situation has been dire for some time, but all they do are small incremental steps towards building more housing, it's nowhere close to what's necessary.…

It's not a problem to everyone. For example, it's not a problem to many homeowners that the value of their homes keep going up and to the right. Living in California is expensive, in more ways than just housing. Not everyone can afford it. Just like not everyone can afford a new BMW. In my corner of the state, people who increasingly cannot afford to live here are noisy. I mostly don't engage because I'm aware that I…

> It's not a problem to everyone. For example, it's not a problem to many homeowners that the value of their homes keep going up and to the right

"Increasing price of cars during pandemic not an issue for people who already have cars."

Yes, people are upset that the government pushes policies that hurt people, and that make no sense generationally (intentionally targeting rising property values is just a generational ponzi scheme).

If your stance is apathy or even pleasure upon seeing the suffering caused by bad policy, it's no wonder you're being downvoted.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#69

People are doing the math. If you make enough money in California you pay 10% of your income in taxes. First of all, what do you get from that 10% you pay that don't get in other states with lower or no income taxes? For the people paying the taxes the answer is not much. People also fail to account for the fact that the 10% they are paying is 10% of their GROSS income, not net after federal taxes. So if you are alre…

The problem is that there is nowhere near as many SWE jobs in other states as in Bay Area. I just moved to the Bay from Munich and I miss Germany a lot, but the career opportunities are here in California. Admittedly, I don’t enjoy my life as much as I did in Munich where I could walk, cycle and enjoy great city life. However, I knew all that before I moved here and it was a calculated decision: the career opportunit…

Why do you think I moved there myself? The jobs didn't exist anywhere else. Thankfully that's changing. If you are a valuable employee, one trick you can do is after working at a company for a year ask them to let you work remotely. If you are good they will let you.

Additionally, I think companies and investors are catching on. If I give a company $100 million I don't want $10 million to go to avoidable state income taxes and another $20 million to go into landlord pockets via inflated rent prices (commercial and residential), I want it to go into the business.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#70
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If people are fleeing a state that often means that the problems are so bad But much of the outflow is quite easily explained by the Covid shift to remote work allowing everyone in the Bay Area to take their high salary savings and buy houses wherever they fantasized about living. You can’t really directly compare to previous migrations because those all involved making a career-impacting change. This one required…

It's not a problem immediately but that's the thing when you are talking at scales like this it is a matter of decades not years to forecast issues. If the remote work hypothesis holds true that means the biggest advantage silicon valley had, a high concentration of engineers and founders is no longer there it's dispersed all across the country and the competitive advantage begins to evaporate at the same time VC mon…

hyperbole like "unlivable" needs to be expanded. The obvious California problems of expensive and homeless don't make it unlivable.
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