You Can Forget About Crypto Now • Hacker News Board

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#61

Post by prepend » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:15 PM UTC

squidbeak wrote: post #39

bluepizza wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just did. None of them ever heard of crypto. It might seem like crypto is all the rage online, but most people don't actually live in this bubble.

You managed to canvass Iranians, Venezuelans and Argentinians in 9 minutes flat?

It’s actually pretty easy if you’re in a cafe in Venezuela and do a quick sample of 20 random urban caracans to ask if anyone uses crypto.

Obviously not a proper sample or authoritative, but pretty easy way to counter “these countries love crypto.”

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#62

Post by sek » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:15 PM UTC

If it is a medium of exchange, all the attention never made a lot of sense.

The use cases are niche; that's the thing. Venezuelans who avoid inflation and ordering illegal drugs are not a trillion-dollar business. All the legal/regulated areas mean competing with existing financial infrastructure, which is low margin and incredibly competitive.

So if you see the space as a whole, it never had the potential market to begin with to justify those valuations. It was fuelled by low-interest rates, speculators, and venture capital. It was, in retrospect, simply a bubble, and some people feared missing out after some became insanely rich with it.

Historically speaking it was nothing special: Tulips, new economy, real estate and now it was crypo.

When you are in it, invested people always tell you why it is different this time. The underlying economics stay the same; value creation is usually incremental and hard.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#63

Post by deepsun » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:17 PM UTC

Kiro wrote: post #51

bluepizza wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just did. None of them ever heard of crypto. It might seem like crypto is all the rage online, but most people don't actually live in this bubble.

Quoted post unavailable.

We don't do accusations here on HN.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#64

Post by user3939382 » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:18 PM UTC

I remember Warren Buffet explaining that his top two analysts that basically run BH struggle to beat the S&P 500. Then I read all these comments confidently predicting the movement one way or the other of this very volatile asset, whose behavior is inextricably related to the movement of the larger economy.

I guess it’s a good thing to pretend you can predict since you have a 50% chance of being right.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#65

Post by BobbyJo » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:19 PM UTC

super256 wrote: post #58

slaw wrote: post #3

> despite the ricketiness of the whole system, despite the constant feeling that everything might fall apart at any moment, there will come a time when crypto really arrives. For me crypto was always Ponzi scheme and nothing more, but it is because I don't laundry money or sell drugs, so I am not the target for crypto.

> For me crypto was always Ponzi scheme and nothing more, but it is because I don't laundry money or sell drugs, so I am not the target for crypto. I find Bitcoin very intriguing because unlike TradFi it is not built in debt. Every dollar you have in your account is someone else's debt to you. Which is also the reason Bitcoin gets compared so much to gold! There is a fixed amount of nuggets and no debt is involved. (…

I think the debt model is more true to what a currency is supposed to represent though. You can ignore the entire regulatory structure and just imagine there was some magic substance that was created out of thin air whenever you gave someone something, and consumed when you received something. Debt is exactly what it would represent. You to others and others to you.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#66

Post by irusensei » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:19 PM UTC

haasted wrote: post #42

> “We’re so early,” goes one popular crypto mantra I'm tired of this mantra. To me, crypto is starting to look less like the early internet, and more like the file-sharing mania of the late 90s early 00s, ie Napster, Kazaa, Limewire etc. A very likely outcome is that crypto will continue to be around, like some of the file sharing services, but using them will be more and more irrelevant and frowned upon by most peop…

> who prefer the ease of the legal media streaming platforms

checks the need for different subscriptions for different shows and looks at my own library of purchased media for shows that disappeared for reasons

Are you sure about that analogy?

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#67

Post by azangru » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:19 PM UTC

When they say "crypto", what do they mean. No, I understand that it's something to do with cryptocurrencies; but, confusingly, they must mean something more specific than that; because isn't bitcoin the OG of cryptocurrencies? And doesn't it still hold the promise of a parallel peer-to-peer non-inflationary currency, suitable for self-custody, which is totally orthogonal to the meltdown of a cryptoexchange? Does The Atlantic want us to forget about it as well? I am confused.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#68

Post by jfengel » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:20 PM UTC

deepsun wrote: post #57

phpisthebest wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahh the privilege of not living under an authoritarian government combined with the arrogance to believe your government will never turn on you... Crypto is no more of a Ponzi Scheme than Fiat currency is, the big difference is Fiat currency is back by threats of violence (aka government).

As Robert A. Heinlein put it: "When you vote, you are exercising political authority, you're using force. And force, my friends, is violence. The supreme authority from which all other authorities are derived."

Force is a big part of it, but the flip side is that a vote is also consent to abide by the outcome without force. The force is there, invisible, and most people don't even notice it exists because they consent.

That's a delicate illusion and does not survive well when largish minorities declare the social contract void.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#69

Post by irusensei » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:20 PM UTC

luciusdomitius wrote: post #14

pibechorro wrote: post #8

Crypto is fine. Its centralized exchanges which are not, its why crypto exists, remove the human element of corruption. Keep your coins off 3rd party exchanges and 99% of this drama disappears.

Well, if I use some altcoin as a savings account, how is keeping custody over it going to save me when the altcoin owner decides to pull the rug? And 2022 has shown that when it comes to Ponzi-schemes, raising interest rates means harvest-time.

Don’t use altcoins.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#70

Post by dragonelite » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:20 PM UTC

Crypto will stay but not in the form of wild wild west where everyone can become a coin minter as of right now. It will morph into central bank digital currency, hope it means i can transfer my money away from private sector banks and into a non speculative financial institution like the central bank.