300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

Post by carabiner » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 7:39 PM UTC

duanem wrote: post #47

samvher wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems to be a thing with weather models more generally. Somewhat relatedly, I've spent quite a bit of time evaluating weather models for use in India and Africa, and while predictions are easy to find, validation results for the predictions are very hard to find. And when you do find them, the results are pretty poor, with many models performing worse than if you would say "predict temperature on date X to be th…

I've been working with weather models for 10 years and I often get asked "How accurate is X?" or "Which model is more accurate?" Many people think "accuracy" is a single number or a single thing - it is more complex than this and depends on your needs. This chapter on Numerical Weather Predictions [0] is great, especially the section on "Forecast Quality and Verification" (p777). The eye-opener for me was "Binary/Cat…

Post by s0rce » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 7:55 PM UTC

anyfoo wrote: post #57

anyfoo wrote: post #55

Growing up in Germany, before I moved to the Bay Area, I was wondering why weather apps and widgets were so prolific. Sure, knowing the forecast for next weekend was nice, but for anything closer I'd just get out of bed and look out of the window. That would pretty much tell me what weather it is, and it would usually change just slowly over a few days or so. Then I moved to the Bay Area, and weather does not only ch…

Another anecdote: In the South of Germany at least, long stretches of sunny days are often followed by sudden thunderstorms with equally sudden bursts of rain. That "fact" had been so deeply ingrained in me that it was subconscious. You'd have a careful feeling if it was hot for too long, suddenly you might find yourself running for the next awning to escape the torrential rain. Sunny weather was a bit like building…

Post by FullyFunctional » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 8:04 PM UTC

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 8:17 PM UTC

lucasmullens wrote: post #63

s1artibartfast wrote: post #59

Very interesting data but infuriating UI. With so much heat map display, why is there no key? For wind, red/purple are counterintuitively lower speed than orange and yellow? Also, who do so many applications force oblique views?

> Also, who do so many applications force oblique views? I'm able to adjust it by dragging with two fingers on my trackpad, which I think is the standard behavior for that (albeit hard to discover). But I do agree, it's weird for that to be the default. There's also probably no key because the colors are mostly transparent, so it would be hard to make a key easy to understand. Labelling the contour lines seems like a…

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 8:47 PM UTC

hadlock wrote: post #69

s1artibartfast wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Basically every comment is wowed by this, but nobody questions what the accuracy is I am very skeptical. Does the San Mateo bridge really block 10 knot winds for the entire south bay? Similarly, the land temperatures all seem the same close to sea level.

Tall bridges do weird things to the wind. I can confirm the bay bridge at surface level, there is functionally no wind for about half a mile downwind from it. Just glassy smooth.