Mh... A site named lesswrong who can't be seen without JS...
Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
61–70 of 123 posts
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#62"I view it as highly unlikely ( Whereas the affects of nuclear on his own country will make him a hero? Sorry, it's just lose-lose.
One of the things that is being shattered in Ukraine right now besides the Russian Army is the Russian self image. Now that's a powerful thing to lose. Russians have believed that they were a strong important country, now, the truth is here and it turns out they are weak and unimportant. Unable to project any sort of believable conventional power onto the world. The soviet union was obviously strong militarily with w…
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Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#63Do we not have better things to do as humans than blow ourselves up. seriously?
I see trillion rea$ons of military spendings to convince the general public that enemies are all around. Though actually starting a full scale war is stupid—there is a non-zero chance that the human civilization as we know it won't survive.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Isn't "sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet" directly striking Russia? Under certain viewpoints it is the difference between attacking the US command in Iraq and striking troups in New York. The black fleet is stationed on annexed land as of the view of most UN member states. An attack on troups stationed on foreign soil is not the same as an attack on troups stationed e.g. in the capital of an country. The black fl…
Were you seriously talking about laws? For those super powers, they are the law as long as they can win the war.
Yes and no. These superpowers are playing their power games on a world stage. As such they sometimes need the crowd on their side in order to win. That means that thin veneer of law does indeed count. After all each nation tries to keep their population under the believe that they are indeed the good ones.
That means war cannot move unrestricted from the rules that govern it. Or let's say it can, but at a (often significant) cost.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#65Do we not have better things to do as humans than blow ourselves up. seriously?
It's scary that billions of lives are in the hands of probably just a few thousand people and hundreds of millions in even less hands. I wish people in the U.S. would realize the increasing danger we find ourselves in as power gets more and more concentrated and radical here. But alas, the three things humans are well evolved for -- power dynamics, violence, and technology -- keep rationality, emotional intelligence,…
This is the reason I support Elon's idea of having a colony on mars to reduce the risk of human extinction. Any incoming missile to mars from earth would easily get noticed and deflected or blown in space itself. It's not a question of if, but when that some maniac finally presses the nuke button here on earth with no country interested in nuclear disarmament and ever increasing geopolitical tensions with mad dictators increasingly gaining power. A Mars colony will atleast increase our odds of survival, hope it happens in my lifetime.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#66I'm a little confused on the usage of "imminent" as a term associated with high probability of an event, to the extent of requiring immediate action, and the actual "one-in-six chance of... ".
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
I seriously doubt US will directly engage Russia if Ukraine get nuked as it's simply doesn't make sense per the "America First" or now "America Only" playbook. The only question really should be whether Putin dare to nuke Ukraine, if he indeed go there, end of story.
US isn't the only player with nukes though.
That's exactly why US doesn't want to get involved directly.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#68> I'd love to hear your thoughts both on this risk modeling framework I guess I don't see the word qualitative the same way the author does. To me "qualitative" implies inputs like depth, thought, introspection, care, conscientiousness, reflection, things like that. Anyway, here are some thoughts on the topic and article, based on personality theory, one of the areas I like to think about and hack on: - Putin thinks…
Nice comment. To your point about the author's blindspot/preferences, I think it's fair to say that the LessWrong community definitely has a very specific worldview that is bringing lots of implicit assumptions to the discussion. I generally like reading these "rationalist" analyses, but would love to see a critique of their worldview as well.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's scary that billions of lives are in the hands of probably just a few thousand people and hundreds of millions in even less hands. I wish people in the U.S. would realize the increasing danger we find ourselves in as power gets more and more concentrated and radical here. But alas, the three things humans are well evolved for -- power dynamics, violence, and technology -- keep rationality, emotional intelligence,…
This is the reason I support Elon's idea of having a colony on mars to reduce the risk of human extinction. Any incoming missile to mars from earth would easily get noticed and deflected or blown in space itself. It's not a question of if, but when that some maniac finally presses the nuke button here on earth with no country interested in nuclear disarmament and ever increasing geopolitical tensions with mad dictato…
Elon Musk is the embodiment of human fault. And a colony on Mars, if even remotely possible any time soon, will solve nothing. His selling of it is just that, a sales pitch and a medium for his ego.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
What Putin accepts or not is irrelevant - it's what the Russian state will accept that counts. Putin is dead in 5-15 years no matter what. Russia should,could,will have 100's of years left if it starts to act 1/2 way sensibly.
So why risk getting jailed or even killed instead of just waiting for a couple of years? And you don't have to clean up someone else's mass neither.
Because anyone in a position to control the succession today will know that they may only have a short time to do it in before they personally lose the chance. The more people fall out of windows, the more they might feel the need to press the issue.